Cyclone 2020 NH Hurricane/Typhoon season

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by Bello Weather, May 13, 2020.

  1. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather One of Us

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    Going to kick this thread off as we have quite a lot happening already. First off, and likely to have a BIG impact for a lot of people, is a cyclone likely to develop in the Bay of Bengal over the coming week and head north:



    I think we're all aware of the possible outcomes for this one - that ocean is pretty hot right now so a lot of energy, and then a lot of people and flat land as it approaches land. Definitely something to watch over coming days, and likely not something they'll want at all as they also fight Covid outbreaks :(

    We've also got a very early season storm likely to form off the Florida coast. This one is likely to remain out to sea, but could be the first of many storms in that area this season, with an above average outlook for the Atlantic. the NHC has already noticed this one:


    "An area of low pressure is expected to form just north of the Bahamas late this week or early this weekend. This system has a high chance of becoming a subtropical depression or storm this weekend while it moves northeastward over the western Atlantic".

    And finally, in the Pacific we have Vongfong strengthing quickly as it approaches the Philippines:



    Looks like a busy season coming up, and will be interesting to see how the US copes on top of an ongoing Covid outbreak...
     
  2. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather One of Us

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    The latest forecast has the cyclone in the Bay of Bengal moving north and then swinging north east...close to Kolkata and Bangladesh, before dissapating as it hits the Himalayas. Going to be some signficant impacts and can only imagine the rain totals as it hits the wall that is the Himalayas. Here's the latest forecast:



    ....and here is the currently forecast rainfall from this system:

     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  4. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather One of Us

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    Massive impacts likely as Amphan moves north. here's the latest from the JTWC, predicting gusts to 300kph:



    ...and here's the latest satellite imagery courtesy of cyclonicwx.com - pretty much top of the scale and a big size too...has gone through an EWC - will it strengthen again before landfall? Surge is going to be a massive issue. Mix COVID 19 into the mix and it's a nightmare in that part of the world right now:



    This wind forecast from EC - shows the eye of the storm passing through Kolkata:



    ...and finally - this rainfall forecast from EC - you can see the track of the cyclone and then the massive dump as it hits the Himlayas. Going to be some longer term flooding issues as a result I'd be thinking - that whole area drains in the Brahmaputra River which then heads down through Bangladesh...impacts likely for some time. Sure they see big totals in the monsoon but that is a BIG dump very early in the season:

     
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  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  6. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather One of Us

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    Not a cyclone but still a magical event to watch...the Monsoon is soon to arrive in India. The latest GFS shows it reaching the far SW and moving north over the following days. A massive weather event that impacts a massive number of people - great to watch it appear like clockwork at the end of May each year:

     
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