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Question 2021 Vic. ski season. Can it survive another locked down /shutdown season?

Discussion in 'Snow Talk' started by Mister Tee on XC Skis, Oct 13, 2020.

  1. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am curious to know what people think about the 2021 Vic. ski season. I am of the opinion that resorts, businesses and local towns near ski locations will not be able to endure another season of lockdowns and closures.
     
    crackson likes this.
  2. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's an Olympic year.

    There will be heaps of snow, the resorts will be open and people will go skiing.

    IMO
     
    Young Angus, LaNeige, Roymond and 2 others like this.
  3. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I like your optimism :)
     
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  4. Cam Slee

    Cam Slee One of Us

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    Unless they find a vaccine the ski season will be extremely limited.
    I don't want anyone coming up to Mt Beauty and Falls Creek spreading the love.
    There's no COVID-19 up here yet, let's keep it that way.
     
  5. Sbooker

    Sbooker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I know nothing about the practicalities of the Victorian ski season but it is my extremely strong opinion that if for whatever reason the season doesn't happen there will be far bigger concerns than skiing for the majority of Victorians and Australians.
     
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  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher and Thredbo opened without a vaccine, it certainly is doable. Even Buller did so for some time.
     
  7. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    If the snow comes the Victorian ski fields will open.
     
  8. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Blasphemy ! This is a ski web site :p
     
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  9. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Towns in regional Victoria such as Mt. Beauty and Mansfield do need visitors, tourists and skiers from cities and towns to keep things ticking along financially. Parochial views that fly in the face of that reality have little currency when the plague transmission data suggests health care settings and old folks' homes are chiefly where the plague is still spreading.
     
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  10. Cam Slee

    Cam Slee One of Us

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    We're not prepared to die for it.
    This virus can affect any age group, not only the elderly.
    Stay in Melbourne.
     
  11. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Driving up the Hume highway in heavy rain is often far riskier than than skiing, bushwalking or the slim chance of contracting this plague. You seem to be an all or nothing kind of person on this issue. I think a nuanced approach would be better all round.
    As soon as Some of us are allowed to come bushwalking in NE Vic. we will. You will have to fill in the complaints book if you object. It is usually kept at the front of the bus on most buses in India .
    Anyway this is not an argy bargy thread about Covid. It is about whether or not the Vic. ski industry , ski businesses and ski location towns can withstand another dud locked down plague ridden ski season or not.
     
    #11 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Oct 13, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2020
  12. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    To answer the original question,

    Some Victorian ski related businesses will not survive until next season, regardless of what happens.

    Regardless of what happens with covid, the mountains are not going anywhere, neither is the infrastructure, lifts etc. So the big resorts will survive. That does not mean they will necessarily have the same owners in several years time, or that they will look or operate the same. Owners and business models may change. Ancillary resort businesses such as ski school, rentals, food and beverage, retail and accommodation could look very different. The small resorts such as Baw Baw, Lake Mountain etc, less certain what will happen.

    There will be shake up of non-resort industry players. Some will go bust, some will change, some will probably thrive and do better.

    All of the above applies regardless of what happens next season with covid. Also applies equally to NSW, and overseas.

    On the good news front, NSW managed to put together a successful season, with Covid cases currently at similar levels to what they are at the moment in Vic. No cases of transmission in the resort, no cases of community transmission into local communities. I think that outcome was due to good management, but also due to a significant dose of good luck;)

    Also, there is a lot of pent up demand, which will be even more the case by the next Oz season, with no overseas travel. So the potential is there for the industry operators left at the end of all this to do very well, and have a huge season:)
     
  13. skifree

    skifree A disciple of the blessed avi giraffe Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    To me this really is a pointless and agonising question. There are 1001 better ways to spend time than pondering such a question.

    It might be shit today & it looks like it’ll might be shit tomoroz, but the the sun will go down then come up repeat repeat repeat.
     
  14. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    However winter in Japan is calling me in 2022 and 2023!!
     
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  15. skifree

    skifree A disciple of the blessed avi giraffe Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Use the planning time you have been gifted wisely.:)
     
  16. Jonathan_P

    Jonathan_P One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Keep positive I reckon, if NSW hadn’t managed to last the season with small volumes of cases then maybe I would think differently.

    But be prepared for things to look different and some items to be more frustrating and more complex, but once you arrive and ski that is all worth the extra effort or cost.
     
  17. Goski

    Goski One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    It will survive another season with Melbourne and / or Sydney locked down. As @robbo mcs wrote, the big resorts will still be there in 2022 and new businesses will replace those that have sadly had to close. We saw this year Perisher and Thredbo managing to run a lot of services without covid outbreaks until the snow ran out. Vic resorts could do the same if the positions were reversed. If both Melbourne and Sydney were locked down at the start or during the season then I'd hope the resorts would get some lifts and services going for regional workers to earn a living and have enough regional customers to keep businesses solvent. The border situation will of course be a major factor in what opens and what doesn't. On the low to zero numbers in regional Vic this season, Thredbo and Perisher could have had more customers - if they had capacity - from regional Victorians, if the border had not been closed to all Victorians. Who knows what 2021 will bring. At least we'll have the benefit of eight more months to learn (maybe) how to manage the virus with targeted measures instead of the blanket ones we are under now. We didn't have that pandemic experience for this year's ski season. I personally won't be getting a crystal ball to gaze into, no expectations may be the best approach to 2021.
     
  18. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    If no vaccine, then probably NSW the same as this season and hopefully Vic the same as NSW with open borders.
    That would imply, SDIng protocols and limited online prebooked resort tix, BC intention forms, limited NP campsites and some very planned fun for some.
    But hopefully more snow!
     
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  19. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Everyone seems to forget that in Vic, we have a government that won't allow its citizens freedoms or fun.
     
  20. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    There are other threads where you can pile on to the government of Victoria. Why not do it there? But the OP seems to approve the degeneration of his potentially interesting idea (with a 'like'). I thought an outdoor retailer might have more to contribute to the discussion. After speaking with a young skier from Europe this morning, there is evidence that some people wish matters could have been handled differently over there. Some Europeans are very happy to be here. Next Winter season will be different but hopefully a gradual return to some sort of 'normal'. I have asked my accomm provider to hold the money as a deposit for next season. A gamble? Perhaps.
     
  21. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thanks for your thoughts on this matter. Yes there are other threads to argue about politics and CV19.
     
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  22. Chookfooter

    Chookfooter One of Us

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    I think the resorts, businesses and towns relying on the ski industry have more to worry about with climate change than Covid.
     
  23. Apresski

    Apresski Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  24. Auska

    Auska Hard Yards

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    Climate change is definitely an existential threat to the Australian ski industry, but whether it is something that needs to concern the industry in the short term, I'm not so sure.
    Regarding Covid, one potential mitigation strategy is rapid testing, results in 15 min. Pass ski for the day, repeat the next day
     
    Mister Tee on XC Skis likes this.
  25. Crystal

    Crystal (Sly made me Cry) - Sand skier extraordinaire Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Please keep the political talk out of this forum thanks :)
     
  26. WaitAwhile

    WaitAwhile One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    There was an article the other day that said the average age in Australia of a covid-19 death was about 85, although I cannot find the link.
    I have been watching closely the same chart that you have just linked to , and in the early stages in the under 80 age groups there was an extremely high amount of male mortality ,almost 3:1 at one stage .
    Not sure if this was due to a lot higher rate of males with diabeties and cardiovascular diseases at a much earlier age.
     
  27. FatBoyDave

    FatBoyDave One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    More directly pressing is Insurance cover after the bushfires in Jan. Anyone still remember those?
    And yes, we can argue this is an impact of climate change.
    Many places on the mountain have found themselves uninsurable as premiums have more than doubled and if they can find someone to cover them it may not include any fire insurance.
    After a lot of shopping around our complex is now paying $ 21k in insurance, a huge increase on prior years and only covers bushfire coverage up to $250k (for a complex of 10 apartments)....
    I am told many are investigating the option of self insuring as they have no other viable option.
     
  28. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    $21K to cover $250K is stupid, you would be obliged to burn the place down within five years just to get your monies worth.
     
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  29. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats my problem with life insurance too, you have to die to make it worth it.....
     
    MickM, climberman, skichanger and 3 others like this.
  30. Seth

    Seth Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah. But I’m not holding it for my benefit.
     
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  31. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Your right, I can take policies out on other people, then I don't have to die to make it worth it! Oh, wait....

    I like the idea of life insurance where, if you keep the payments up, you cant die!
     
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  32. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    You pay me and I won’t be forced to kill you.
    I like your business plan.
    You have my bank account details.
    I do have a legitimate, government sanctioned license to kill!
     
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  33. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I blame the Scottish!
     
  34. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thank you.
     
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  35. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOT, is Hotham the next Mt Buffalo?

    I doubt it.
     
  36. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Towns such as Mansfield , Marysville, Bright, Mt. Beauty , Erica , Omeo et al missed out on the revenue that usually comes with summer visitors because of the Jan. 2020 bushfires and then the dud 2020 ski season did not help. These towns really need to get summer 2020-21 visitors and 2021 Ski business back and turning over well.
     
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  37. LMB

    LMB Old but definitely not Crusty! Ski Pass: Gold

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    I wouldn’t expect much out of Summer 20-21
    There will be more opening but the physical distancing and Covid rules required are going to make playing catch up near on impossible.

    Winter will all depend on how our community cases are travelling and whether there has been a vaccine rolled out.
     
  38. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    So another thought, what affect does a lot of the lodges being club lodges have? I am in a club that has lodges at Mt Buller, Falls Creek and Thredbo. They don't have a lot of debt so being closed is not fatal.
     
  39. WaitAwhile

    WaitAwhile One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The government is still arguing with itself about how the actual fire starts and lack of hazard reduction burns, the fact that more and more days earlier in the season will be classed as extreme days is irrelevant, just as they are trying to complete hazard reduction burns.
     
  40. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    You’d seriously have to start thinking of self-insurance.
     
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  41. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    NSW managed to operate a ski season in 2020. It is partly about who is making decisions that comprehend what is at stake in terms of draconian restrictions and how they impact various businesses and industries.
     
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  42. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lets hope for resorts turning in 2021.

    Everyone seems convinced everything will just go away next year but cases are worse worldwide than ever. There are no guarantees next year will be any different, hopefully in Oz at least we can get it out of the community.

    In Vic, Buller tried but stage 3 in regional areas killed it.

    Fingers crossed for an effective vaccine and a natural reduction in infections. Skis well and truly waxed and ready.
     
  43. emkae

    emkae One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW managed to get a season this year.

    Assuming we are still living with COVID next season and if VIC can keep things under control AND we get some snow, then we should have something to look forward to next season
     
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  44. LMB

    LMB Old but definitely not Crusty! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes they did.
    Outstanding.

    And likely both Vic and NSW will manage the same for 2021. However the continued social distancing and Covid rules that will probably still be in force won’t be bringing joy to a lot of the businesses who will be forced to operate below capacity all season long. It will be better than being closed, but if we are lucky enough to be among the few bodies allowed in to a restaurant or bar or shop or get a ski lesson, if we can afford to do so we should think about spending a little more than we would normally.
     
  45. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Everyone I have spoken to, like me, thinks it was such a fluke.
     
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  46. crackson

    crackson Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It was.
     
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  47. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I suspect the closing of Falls and Hotham has ruined a lot of businesses locally in Ovens and Kiewa valleys , which are just being supported by Job keeper and may just hang on, though " a labour of love."
     
  48. WaitAwhile

    WaitAwhile One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Would many of the businesses that make their money during the winter ski season been eligible for the first round of job keeper if it was based around the previous quarter .
     
  49. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Although my business didnt qualify due to the insane rush for flu injections [ not ski related ], our farm did and I realised later it would be pretty easy to fudge the figures to qualify.
    I think the chances of anyone being audited is very low , the govt and ATO will have their hands full for years
     
  50. WaitAwhile

    WaitAwhile One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I think its very easy to confirm in the future if you are/were eligible or not , doesnt even really need much human intervention, their computers will just point it out, especially if you have relied on future turnover and the numbers dont add up in the next quarter.