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Predictions 21-25th June Opening Weekend Cut Off Low

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 14, 2020.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models starting to hold trend for a substantial cut off sceanrio, potentially delivering another SISP event.
    GFS alludes to snow on the North Tablelands and even a tiny risk of snow on QLD's Southern Downs. As always with a cut of scenario it's a moving target.

    At this stage it could be anyone's, but in the current aligned scenario it doesn't offer much to the SE Alps given the cold air's trajectory. Best case scenario we see the cut off low stay South.

    GFS:
    [​IMG]

    EC:
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow next Friday should be fun.. two lows separated by a strong ridge
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just to use the EC snowfall chart to show the scope of the system:


    Certainly a system all about the positioning.
     
  4. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Why are most of the systems coming through so cut off these days? Is it just the time of year?
     
  5. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS 18z liking a multi state cold snap.

     
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  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC also has it Advecting a fair way North.
     
  8. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah i cut @ 22nd but the next few frames on the 18z were well into qld. Too far out past 22 atm for me.
     
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  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Yeah. At least we have a cold mass on the Majors to watch for now.
     
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  10. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Canuck liked the anom too. So yeah some consensus atm with global modeling.





     
  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  12. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z GFS Again went with the extended cold period over eastern states.
    [​IMG]

    18th+
     
  13. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Sunday June 21st looks vaguely like an improvement (for possible XC skiable snow with no base) from what I can ascertain. We shall wait and watch what happens.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ultra-dynamic system being progged at the moment.
    Multi-core system with a tropical influence.

    Won't be game to make a call on this until Wed/Thursday IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  15. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Do you foresee some heavy pre frontal rain falling before the temperature drops to allow snow to fall?
     
  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Certainly some wicked PV going on current plots. A fair whack of vertical penetration on the cards
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Depends largely on the tracking of low/cold pool.
    I, for one, am not going to speculate until later in the week.
     
  18. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. Balls n all:D
     
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  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still there on EC 00z too, perhaps a tad less exciting and less far north than the previous run.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    RE: EC 00z run
    Broad based cold pool.
    Closed core directly impacting the Alps.
    Relatively light winds for the alpine, considering the lows footprint.

    I am into it.
     
  21. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Still looked pretty darn good on the hi-res ec model 00z run.







    Whats behind maybe a sweetener too.
     
  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    26th looks tasty, needs to be resolved more.

    This one looks like 15-25cm for the Alps at this stage. Good, but not game-changing at the moment.
    Snow in strange places makes people happy. Positioning of the low will matter a lot.
    It’s a wacky system, they don’t tend to deliver the best loads.
     
  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    JMA anomaly.



    Could draw a inference, with the good may anom cold snap atm on paper imo.
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane Bunn's synopsis this evening:
     
  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah concur with the Jane forecast. There certainly is still a grey area here.

    GFS 6z certainly looks interesting, certainly bizarre.
    But jeez if you get that Cape Howe low to align correctly, you got heavy snow.
     
  26. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I like it. The present forecasting run by Ms. Bunn looks like an upgrade in predicted snow falls but the forecast will jump around a bit . I am slightly hopeful about this weather system :). By Wed. or Thursday we will be better situated to make prognostications.
     
  27. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC 12z.
     
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  28. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow in strange places
     
  29. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Distributed snow play
     
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  30. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  31. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    EC appears to have backed off the temperatures this morning and appears to have solid R##n for our date period now.
    This is backed by the Frog (lol) and I assume Jane Bunn (to my understanding the forecasters who used EC). I checked GFS this morning and it still appears to have a sizeable chunk of snow coming our way in this period so we will see how it flip flops over the next few days. EDIT: as pointed out above, this GFS model is outdated now and not accurate. My B
    EC forecast for this morning ( I have no idea if this is realisitic or not you guys are the expert at this. I am just trying to learn how to use the forecasting tools atm).


    Bottom run is GFS. this appears to be colder and is consistent with the snow is stranger places
     
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  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    That GFS run is old. The current update is not very good (like EC).

    EC just puts the ULL in the middle of nowhere, and any cold for the Alps is mostly without any moisture.
     
  33. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The Candians have a slighty more appealing system.
     
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  34. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Right. Thanks for that. Still trying to learn whats going on :)

    Just looked again. It is very old. My bad lol
     
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  35. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    There will be more snow out of this in the CTs and NTs. Do not like. A bit of snow followed by rain for the alps IMO.
     
  36. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Before the cut0ff heads nth. Still 7 days out. Boms hires models will give the best snow estimates when its much closer. Global Models lately @ this range have been bit bi-polar.
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Need not forget that this system peaks in SW WA, then forms a cut off in the Bight.
    It’s along way from Home Base yet.

    Snowfall estimates are merely shooting the breeze ATM.
     
  38. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    From yesterday.


    Winter snow on its way

    Jess Miskelly, Sunday June 14, 2020 - 11:59 EST
    It is certainly not uncommon for the Queen's birthday weekend to come and go with little white on the slopes but it is still disappointing. Thankfully, there's snow on the forecast horizon.

    Last night's cold front brought plenty of rain but by the time temperatures dropped below freezing on the Alps, most of the rain had gone. There will be a few snow showers today but it won't accumulate to more than a couple of centimetres.

    However, next weekend, it is becoming more definitive that a strong cold front will cross the southeast, bringing an injection of sub-freezing but moisture-laden air that should result in 3-4 days of snowfalls across the Alpine area.


    The projected deep and slow moving nature of the front is a good feature for significant snow as there is more time for precipitation and cold air to combine. Often with fronts, the coldest air arrives after the moisture, limiting snowfalls. In this instance, it looks like the initial frontal rainband Saturday and Sunday will be followed by further moisture infeeds and a deep cold pool, with 700 hPa (approximately 3000 metre elevation) temperatures below -10 degrees Celsius but humidity levels still above 70% - perfect for snow formation.





    This sort of set-up tends to favour the NSW Alps, particularly the higher peaks around Thredbo and Charlotte Pass, which should pick up 20-30cm. The specifics are likely to change but Sunday and Monday are most likely to have the heaviest snowfalls with snow showers persisting for a day or two afterwards, particularly in the Victorian Alps which collect more in the post-front southwesterlies



    Jess Miskelly, a meteorologist from Weatherzone
     
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  39. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM are today predicting a meagre 5-10 cms of snow for the June 21st weather system. This could be possibly downgraded even further as the front approaches and manifests in the target area of interest, namely the Australian Alps.
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good synopsis from the current model standpoint.
    Clearly knows her stuff.
     
  41. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Start looking @ those models 3 days out.
     
  42. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM have issued this forecast for Mt. Hotham at 1650 M.
    10-20 mm of snow is not to be sneezed at.
    We shall wait and see what happens.
    Friday 19 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 4
    Possible showers or snow.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
    Chance of any rain: 40% [​IMG]
    Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers or snow, most likely later in the day. Winds north to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h.

    Saturday 20 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 3
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 10 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Winds northerly 25 to 30 km/h tending northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

    Sunday 21 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 1
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
     
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  43. cornice11

    cornice11 One of Us

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    agree. not a season starter , but its weather moving in the right direction.
     
  44. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah it was g

    Yeah indeed it was displaying a complex low doing its best work to the south of the other models.

    [​IMG]
     
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  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    As discussed, WZ and Jane are both looking at a decent 15-30cm system.
    Most of the models have downgraded, with the Canadian looking the best.
     
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  46. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  47. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    00z GFS has promise
     
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  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Much better.
    Back towards 15-30cm range.
    Still snow in strange places too.
    Wet to start though.
    24th and beyond looks decent to build upon in future runs.
     
  49. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Starting to get Vibe at 00z GFS.

    Might have to give the wax and iron a crack before the missus gets home from work.
     
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  50. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]
    GFS liking that possible sweetener mentioned before. With the way the ec aao is currently trending.
     
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