Predictions 21-25th June Opening Weekend Cut Off Low

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,790
39,092
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Models starting to hold trend for a substantial cut off sceanrio, potentially delivering another SISP event.
GFS alludes to snow on the North Tablelands and even a tiny risk of snow on QLD's Southern Downs. As always with a cut of scenario it's a moving target.

At this stage it could be anyone's, but in the current aligned scenario it doesn't offer much to the SE Alps given the cold air's trajectory. Best case scenario we see the cut off low stay South.

GFS:
gfs_z500a_aus_38.png


EC:
ecmwf_z500a_aus_10.png
 
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
13,349
22,303
813
Box Hill, VIC
Still looked pretty darn good on the hi-res ec model 00z run.

ecmwf-deterministic-aus-thck_1000-500-1592092800-1592600400-1592956800-40.gif



ecmwf-deterministic-aus-z500_anom-1592092800-1592676000-1592956800-40.gif



Whats behind maybe a sweetener too.
26th looks tasty, needs to be resolved more.

This one looks like 15-25cm for the Alps at this stage. Good, but not game-changing at the moment.
Snow in strange places makes people happy. Positioning of the low will matter a lot.
It’s a wacky system, they don’t tend to deliver the best loads.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,790
39,092
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Jane Bunn's synopsis this evening:
A cold front arrives early on Saturday - and this has a proper pool of cold air in behind it - we’ll see rain then snow. A cut off low may pass through later next weekend. There are signs that the low comes close enough to the alps, and keeps the cold pool of air - and if it lines up like that, we should see 15 to 30 cm of snow from later Saturday to Monday.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2015
12,484
13,023
813
Melbourne, Lockdown-i-stan .
soundcloud.com
RE: EC 00z run
Broad based cold pool.
Closed core directly impacting the Alps.
Relatively light winds for the alpine, considering the lows footprint.

I am into it.
I like it. The present forecasting run by Ms. Bunn looks like an upgrade in predicted snow falls but the forecast will jump around a bit . I am slightly hopeful about this weather system :). By Wed. or Thursday we will be better situated to make prognostications.
 

Jasper Schwarz

Young but not afraid
Ski Pass
Jun 18, 2017
3,345
11,567
363
Northern Beaches, Sydney,
EC appears to have backed off the temperatures this morning and appears to have solid R##n for our date period now.
This is backed by the Frog (lol) and I assume Jane Bunn (to my understanding the forecasters who used EC). I checked GFS this morning and it still appears to have a sizeable chunk of snow coming our way in this period so we will see how it flip flops over the next few days. EDIT: as pointed out above, this GFS model is outdated now and not accurate. My B
EC forecast for this morning ( I have no idea if this is realisitic or not you guys are the expert at this. I am just trying to learn how to use the forecasting tools atm).
42a482b9-ebbc-4c74-aae3-136d68fff151.gif

2bc61e98-dfa2-4f53-9ae1-8867fd9a7283.gif


Bottom run is GFS. this appears to be colder and is consistent with the snow is stranger places
 
  • Like
Reactions: J_busworth

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
13,349
22,303
813
Box Hill, VIC
EC appears to have backed off the temperatures this morning and appears to have solid R##n for our date period now.
This is backed by the Frog (lol) and I assume Jane Bunn (to my understanding the forecasters who used EC). I checked GFS this morning and it still appears to have a sizeable chunk of snow coming our way in this period so we will see how it flip flops over the next few days
EC forecast for this morning ( I have no idea if this is realisitic or not you guys are the expert at this. I am just trying to learn how to use the forecasting tools atm).
42a482b9-ebbc-4c74-aae3-136d68fff151.gif

2bc61e98-dfa2-4f53-9ae1-8867fd9a7283.gif


Bottom run is GFS. this appears to be colder and is consistent with the snow is stranger places
That GFS run is old. The current update is not very good (like EC).

EC just puts the ULL in the middle of nowhere, and any cold for the Alps is mostly without any moisture.
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
26,993
26,455
1,063
Dubbo NSW
There will be more snow out of this in the CTs and NTs. Do not like. A bit of snow followed by rain for the alps IMO.
 

stormkite2000

One of Us
Jan 1, 2020
1,048
2,795
313
From yesterday.


Winter snow on its way

Jess Miskelly, Sunday June 14, 2020 - 11:59 EST
It is certainly not uncommon for the Queen's birthday weekend to come and go with little white on the slopes but it is still disappointing. Thankfully, there's snow on the forecast horizon.

Last night's cold front brought plenty of rain but by the time temperatures dropped below freezing on the Alps, most of the rain had gone. There will be a few snow showers today but it won't accumulate to more than a couple of centimetres.

However, next weekend, it is becoming more definitive that a strong cold front will cross the southeast, bringing an injection of sub-freezing but moisture-laden air that should result in 3-4 days of snowfalls across the Alpine area.


The projected deep and slow moving nature of the front is a good feature for significant snow as there is more time for precipitation and cold air to combine. Often with fronts, the coldest air arrives after the moisture, limiting snowfalls. In this instance, it looks like the initial frontal rainband Saturday and Sunday will be followed by further moisture infeeds and a deep cold pool, with 700 hPa (approximately 3000 metre elevation) temperatures below -10 degrees Celsius but humidity levels still above 70% - perfect for snow formation.





This sort of set-up tends to favour the NSW Alps, particularly the higher peaks around Thredbo and Charlotte Pass, which should pick up 20-30cm. The specifics are likely to change but Sunday and Monday are most likely to have the heaviest snowfalls with snow showers persisting for a day or two afterwards, particularly in the Victorian Alps which collect more in the post-front southwesterlies



Jess Miskelly, a meteorologist from Weatherzone
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,790
39,092
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
From yesterday.


Winter snow on its way

Jess Miskelly, Sunday June 14, 2020 - 11:59 EST
It is certainly not uncommon for the Queen's birthday weekend to come and go with little white on the slopes but it is still disappointing. Thankfully, there's snow on the forecast horizon.

Last night's cold front brought plenty of rain but by the time temperatures dropped below freezing on the Alps, most of the rain had gone. There will be a few snow showers today but it won't accumulate to more than a couple of centimetres.

However, next weekend, it is becoming more definitive that a strong cold front will cross the southeast, bringing an injection of sub-freezing but moisture-laden air that should result in 3-4 days of snowfalls across the Alpine area.


The projected deep and slow moving nature of the front is a good feature for significant snow as there is more time for precipitation and cold air to combine. Often with fronts, the coldest air arrives after the moisture, limiting snowfalls. In this instance, it looks like the initial frontal rainband Saturday and Sunday will be followed by further moisture infeeds and a deep cold pool, with 700 hPa (approximately 3000 metre elevation) temperatures below -10 degrees Celsius but humidity levels still above 70% - perfect for snow formation.





This sort of set-up tends to favour the NSW Alps, particularly the higher peaks around Thredbo and Charlotte Pass, which should pick up 20-30cm. The specifics are likely to change but Sunday and Monday are most likely to have the heaviest snowfalls with snow showers persisting for a day or two afterwards, particularly in the Victorian Alps which collect more in the post-front southwesterlies



Jess Miskelly, a meteorologist from Weatherzone
Good synopsis from the current model standpoint.
Clearly knows her stuff.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2015
12,484
13,023
813
Melbourne, Lockdown-i-stan .
soundcloud.com
Start looking @ those models 3 days out.
BOM have issued this forecast for Mt. Hotham at 1650 M.
10-20 mm of snow is not to be sneezed at.
We shall wait and see what happens.
Friday 19 June
Summary
snow.png

Min 0
Max 4
Possible showers or snow.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40%
rain_40.gif

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers or snow, most likely later in the day. Winds north to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h.

Saturday 20 June
Summary
snow.png

Min 1
Max 3
Snow showers.
Possible rainfall: 10 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%
rain_95.gif

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Winds northerly 25 to 30 km/h tending northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

Sunday 21 June
Summary
snow.png

Min -3
Max 1
Snow showers.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
rain_90.gif
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jacko4650
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Log in

or Log in using
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass