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Predictions 21-25th June Opening Weekend Cut Off Low

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 14, 2020.

  1. Tasmanian Devil

    Tasmanian Devil Hard Yards

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    Looks like some good rain for the East Coast of Tassie which relies on these sort of systems for decent rain.
     
  2. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yeah, just hope the centre of the broad complex low stays to your north for that onshore flow.
     
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  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The charts you posted are great. Keep posting

    :emoji_sunflower:
     
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  4. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Such a slow-moving stationary cutoff low is unusual. But delivered big time in early May.

    The snot at the back end of this is gonna fil the main range in nicely.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    .............. just waiting for confirmation this is actually a thing .............. until then :gives:;)
     
  6. Vandans

    Vandans Addicted

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    BOM 4:20 update are hedging their bets between rain and snow. Perisher says just rain while Thredbo and Hotham say Snow. What is it guys?
     
  7. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    This afternoon’s forecast hasn’t updated yet
     
  8. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    1/2 of it has now
    Snow or rain. Heavy falls possible
    Tbo
    Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain or snow. Snow heavy at times from the late morning
     
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  9. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Same for Perisher.
     
  10. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    Hope still with those freezing levels, especially for PV
     

    Attached Files:

  11. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    So, why can’t BOM Vic do this for Victoria?

    What possibly could they not know in HQ Mel that allows it to be so in NSW? C’mon BOM!
     
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  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    They just put it in the regional forecasts, as opposed the location forecasts.
     
  13. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    As it stands, 1200-1100m for Saturday-Monday.
     
  14. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fair enough but it’s not the same MC?
    One neat alpine chart with snow probabilities at 3 heights? Per day?
     
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  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Be handy, not exactly essential though I guess.
     
  16. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  17. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    yr.no updatre is still just the 6am update redone at 11:33am - should update to next new version in an hour or so.

    looks like a wet sheep dog that got lost from the west side of the hill. Porridge in June - how good is that!
     
  18. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ok I will go back to my knitting.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    To be fair, on paper Buller and the Western Alpine actually looks not to bad on paper above 1700m for early Saturday.
    There's some intensity in those falls and although it doesn't leave Buller with a lot vertical snow gain these intense falls could put snot in village early IMO.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Ensembles 24 hrs rainfall total to Sunday 10am Local.

    A good indicator is that the predom falls are on the Western/NW slopes of the Alps, indicative of low level moisture, which is typically (in Aus) not fit for DGZ/snowfall development.
    Still looking like a 5-10cm gain in the resorts (1700-1900m vert)
     
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  21. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO. Purely. This is a mark one eyeball system.
    Watch. Let's see what happens..
     
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  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Heaps hard to forecast.
    ACCESS eyeballing getting towards dump amounts.
    GFS and CMC with a reasonable mid-tier system for June.
    And EC lucky to have a dusting for Perisher.

     
  23. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    There’s been anecdotal evidence from some people within the forecasting community that ACCESS-G seems to have a general habit of overcooking precip. It also seems to be quite aggressive with some cutoffs.
    Will be interesting to see whether this will also be the case with this time... or whether this system will be an exception to that.
     
  24. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I know you posted it, who was closest most often last year? I just cant find it :)
     
  25. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    We like personification of our weather models round here.
    AXSG is that drunk uncle mumbling angrily at the end of the table. However occasionally he finds a subject he knows about.

    Though his behavior has improved.

    I hope he's on the ball this time.
     
  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    There was a whole thread on it.
     
  27. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  28. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM are forecasting snow for Mt. Hotham at 1650 M. which means good old JB plain .(The mid week cheap skate's National park option for Nordic skiing).
    Saturday 20 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 2
    Snow. Wind easing.
    Possible rainfall: 15 to 35 mm
    Chance of any rain: 100% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of snow. The chance of a thunderstorm from the late morning. Winds northerly 40 to 55 km/h tending northwesterly 30 to 40 km/h in the morning then decreasing to 25 to 30 km/h in the early afternoon.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Sunday 21 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 1
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending northerly during the morning then becoming light during the day.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 1 [Low]

    Monday 22 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max 2
    Snow showers increasing.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming southwesterly 20 to 25 km/h during the evening.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Tuesday 23 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 3
    Showers or snow. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 5 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers or snow. Winds southwesterly 25 to 30 km/h turning south to southeasterly 45 to 55 km/h during the morning.

    Wednesday 24 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 5
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers. Winds southeasterly 25 to 40 km/h tending southerly 20 to 25 km/h later.

    Thursday 25 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 5
    Possible snow shower.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
    Chance of any rain: 40% [​IMG]
    Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of snow showers. Winds southeast to southwesterly 20 to 25 km/h tending easterly 15 to 20 km/h later.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  30. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Addicted

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    Bureau of Met forecasting 35 to 50 mm snow Saturday Thredbo Top Station.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seems inline with EC & AXS-C (snow accumulation above 1900m, until late Saturday arvo, night IMO).
     
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  32. W0nkey D0nkey

    W0nkey D0nkey One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Same with the rest of the ACCESS suite IMHO.
    It does best in the biggest systems, and overcooks what should be small top-ups at certain occasions.
     
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  34. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    So you think it is possible for decent fall? Is this a goer?
     
  35. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    the top 100m could be awesome....
     
  36. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    This Dump (Period) is a base filler. The next dump next week (14 Days) at 18Z Mon GFS looks like the mint for eary season pow.

    A tinge of purle showing for the main range Tuesday morning.


    [​IMG]
    Next week

    [​IMG]
     
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  37. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not just a tinge.
    You got a ~50-60cm dump.


    Now if that isn’t a base filler, I don’t know what is.

    The difference between that and CMC/EC is so polarising that it’s almost ridiculous. Almost.
     
  38. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    Interesting that there can be such variance this close to the event. Really a line ball on freezing levels
     
  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    lol
    14 days....
     
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  40. Young Angus

    Young Angus One of Us

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    I am so confused by this, and enthralled, I'm up to Hotham end of next week for the weekend I'm just hoping this thing comes off and nukes the place...still sounds like it could go either way this close to the event too this is an absolute thriller!
     
  41. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Of course it's also worth bearing in mind how wet or dry the falling snow will be depending on the lower atmospheric temp profile considering its big effect on snowfall accumulations on the particular model maps which use the assumed 10:1 standard snow to liquid ratio rather than model-derived ratios.
     
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  42. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    AAO trending the right way now.



     
    #242 stormkite2000, Jun 19, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2020
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon above 1700/1800m will be good to go. But doesn’t leave a lot for Vic.
     
    #243 POW_hungry, Jun 19, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2020
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  44. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wet snow = build a base. I’d be happy with any snow.
     
  45. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    Hopefully a Perisher system. Looking at the satellite image, there’s a lot of something coming.
     
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  46. Young Angus

    Young Angus One of Us

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    C'MON HOT HAM C'MONNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

    Either that or it's a long drive to PErisher haha
     
  47. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can we please get a "stay on topic" to officially start the season CC ?
     
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  48. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM 4-Dayer

    [​IMG]

    Someone needs to explain to me what all that means :p
     
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  49. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Surprised that the BOM is yet to publish any warnings for NSW? Thought that there would have been at least a sheep graziers alert this close to tomorrow given the forecast. I guess it’s coming with their next update .
     
  50. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    Normally one would think a three headed low with embedded troughs is a recipe for a dump, but I'm no expert here.
     
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