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Predictions 21-25th June Opening Weekend Cut Off Low

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 14, 2020.

  1. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Victorian one just says @Claude Cat is going to get blown around riding his bike a bit.

     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  2. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    We wait and see but the early July system could be what we all want.

    Dude, I am Sir froth a lot and you have become very enthusiastic indeed . We have no real base for fresh to snow to fall on yet. Just cool your boots man.
    Driving to ski at Hotham via Omeo or to ski in the KNP from Melbourne must be worth it .
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    PM update of the day before typically. So this arvo we’ll see ‘em rolled out.
     
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  4. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    fully cut off from cold air supply. Warm moist in-feed from the tropics. MMMMMMmarginal. Could be heaps on the main range and upper reaches of Perisher/Thredbo. Or it could piss rain on bare ground.
     
    Gregah, Claude Cat, PiedPiper and 5 others like this.
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This is really for higher elevations. It's breezy here right now, but hardly bad. That should ease off later today.
    Mt William had a 104 kph gust earlier today.
     
    DiscoStuAU likes this.
  6. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Some rain affect barbs that cant be used to the north. Gales already @ 40-45nots @ the surface level.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Verified.
    Good call.
     
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  8. Young Angus

    Young Angus One of Us

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    I definitely hear you, it's a long way...and my mate and I are driving from down on the Bellarine too not just Melbourne. Thing is we booked this in to get in early and get organised etc. etc. and the wife has organised a girls weekend and everything so we're going up snow or not...I'd rather there be snow haha

    Sorry this is not contributing to the thread apart from dumb enthusiasm, back on topic!
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tuesday’s pinching low through the Monaro has trending upgrade on GFS IMO.
     
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  11. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The point is wait for the next dump. Cause the back end of this system Tuesday Wednesday looks a bit wet snow.

    But The Main Range could be 500 m higher I agree. I am hoping is filled in.
     
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    It will be whatever it will be at this point.
     
  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like a sweet spot between 10pm Monday and 6am Tuesday down to about 1300-1500m for the Main Range.
     
  14. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Skiing and surfing are all about picking the best conditions, quite often on the day , not just booking out a weekend 3 weeks in advance.
     
  15. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thredbo opening their gondie tomorrow
    Torrential rain forecast.
    This doesn't look good. At all.
     
    Snowy Joey likes this.
  16. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    OT: It's considered good luck when it rains on your wedding day.:)
     
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  17. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Thoughts of the Thredbo-CP “longest lift in the world” come to mind.. someone is not happy
    Back to topic
    Looks like Monday hook back for Baw Baw ain’t happening now
     
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  18. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good water proof testing of the cabins.
    Winning.
     
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  19. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Temperatures down 1 deg on forecast NE Vic = might surprise ?
     
  20. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Every degree counts in this situation I’m sure
     
  21. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is there a problem here ?

    Saturday 20 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 3
    Heavy rain then snow.
    Possible rainfall: 50 to 90 mm
    Chance of any rain: 100% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain or snow, most likely from the late morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening. Heavy falls possible. Winds northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h decreasing to 20 to 25 km/h in the late evening.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Good test of the waterproofing :D
     
  22. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    .. +1 to +3 - it's fantasy porridge - it's going to be a stunning rain event to 2100m
     
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  23. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    Not quite alpine but that tiny chance of snow on the higher peaks of the Granite Belt in the SE QLD highlands that @POW_hungry mentioned in the first post in here still isn't completely off the table yet.

    But geez, talk about marginal. Even just a slight downgrade in future runs would see this potential vanish. I can't see much accumulation happening here either.

    Would be nice to make up our longer term average of 1 to 2 snowfalls a year here though.
     
  24. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    ............and now its a thing .............. at last :love::love::love::love:

    Warning to Sheep Graziers
    for the Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts

    Issued at 4:19 pm EST on Friday 19 June 2020.

    Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, heavy rain and showers and northerly winds are expected during Saturday. Areas likely to be affected include the Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts and parts of the Central Tablelands forecast district. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.

    The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Friday.

    I see it just crossing into western Vic right now on a line from Renmark to Port Fairy ..... I guess its still 6 to 8 hours away
     
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  25. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    and the Vic warning as well

    Warning to Sheep Graziers
    for the Northern Country, North Central, North East and Central forecast districts

    Issued at 3:15 pm EST on Friday 19 June 2020.

    Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, rain and showers and northerly winds are expected during Saturday. Areas likely to be affected include parts of the Northern Country, North Central, North East and Central forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.

    The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Friday.
     
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  26. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    I have seen it snow despite those min and max
    Forcasts
     
  27. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    The best warning of them all ..
    IMHO
     
  28. Cam Slee

    Cam Slee One of Us

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    The rains on the way for N/E Victoria and the rest of the state according to the BOM radar.
    Glad I moved plenty of firewood inside for tomorrow.
    Snow?...unlikely, it's just too warm in Tawonga South.
     
  29. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Google home tells me there will be snow in Jindy tomorrow LOL
     
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  30. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    ECMF & GFS looking reasonably similar now. CMC digresses with a more southerly centred low and more of the coldest air over Victoria. If the heavier back end moisture is going to fall as snow IMO CMC needs to be right (for Vic resorts at least).



     
  31. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    The wheels on the bus ....
     
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  32. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  33. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    My prediction rain snow rain.
     
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  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Anyways here was the GFS18z was thinking.
     
  35. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Pretty much unfolding as per expected. The way models were showing it.
     
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  36. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Too warm in NE Vic at present but you can see the colder air winding around the low on the national radar , hope it is cold enough.
     
  37. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    And the radar is thickening in Western Vic. Hopefully it makes it’s way NE
     
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  38. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Bom suggests
    Snow increasing and up to 25mm on Monday at Baw Baw
    Thoughts ?
     
    Mister Tee on XC Skis likes this.
  39. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher and tbo should see 15-20 cm by tuesday
    Much colder temps tonight and monday as well should increase amounts and help bed the base.
     
    Mister Tee on XC Skis likes this.
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tuesday got an upgrade on EC's 00z run.
    [​IMG]
     
  41. JuLe

    JuLe Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Sorry for being a complete amateur, but is there somewhere you recommend where I can learn how to interpret these charts? I want to be able to go beyond assuming green means good haha
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  42. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Blue and purple are even better!
     
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  43. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Looked ok to on canuck 00z run cold with some moisture rotation in the uppers and lowers.














    Hope it holds serve.
     
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  44. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms.Bunn is not too enthusiastic about the chances of skiable snow falling at Baw Baw this week
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-baw-baw
    However, yes, BOM are looking Keen for some snow at Lake Mt. and at Baw Baw tomorrow. I have kept Monday and Tuesday this week free just in case it happens.

    Lake Mtn. forecast
    Forecast issued at 4:15 pm EST on Sunday 21 June 2020.

    Forecast for the rest of Sunday
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Snow shower or two.
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    North Central area
    Mostly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Snow possible above 1200 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the east early this evening with possible hail. The chance of fog later tonight. Light winds.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 1 [Low]

    Monday 22 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 3
    Snow.
    Possible rainfall: 8 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 100% [​IMG]
    North Central area
    Mostly cloudy. Patchy morning fog. Very high (95%) chance of showers in the east, high (70%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1100 metres. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the early afternoon then becoming northwest to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 3 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 12.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    7 day Town Forecasts
    Precis Icon Location Min Max
    [​IMG] Seymour 4 12
    Tuesday 23 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 4
    Showers or snow.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    North Central area
    Partly cloudy. The chance of morning fog in the east. High (80%) chance of showers in the east, medium (60%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1300 metres during the morning. Winds northwest to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h before dawn then tending southerly early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 6 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 14.
     
    #295 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Jun 21, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2020
  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s a model.
    This system has already been proved to be hard to model.
     
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  46. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    Additional to what has already fallen or inclusive?
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    JuLe likes this.
  48. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Additional.
    Colder snow
     
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  49. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Tomorrow GFS ooz's thinking. Looks like it may be a good day as-well
    gfs-deterministic-aus-thck_1000-500-2816400.png gfs-deterministic-aus-t500-2816400.png gfs-deterministic-aus-t700-2816400.png gfs-deterministic-aus-rh700-2838000.png gfs-deterministic-aus-rh925-2816400.png








    i like the look.