Predictions 21st-26th June system

[POW Hungry]

We look to have a system here.
Doesn’t look amazing due to the early peak over SW WA but has potential to go North on the backside IMO.
Perhaps a 15-25cm restart here with maybe some prefrontal mess to kick off IMO
GFS determs and EC Ensembles below:

 

[Young Angus]

Watching this with interest...fingers crossed!

 

[Kletterer]

3 Hourly Temps at 500 hPa

 

[POW Hungry]

IMO looking like snow on Wednesday 1600m perhaps a touch less, but Thursday that rises to 1800m perhaps little higher.

We talking the same system here?
Me not think so.

 

[Kletterer]

 

[Claude Cat]

We talking the same system here?
Me not think so.

You're right wrong thread

 

[Rat trap bindings]

The little trusted (IMO) snow forecast GFS seems to align.

 

[POW Hungry]

EC ensembles showing that backend support (24th).

 

[Donza]

This has some good curves.


Buller may suffer under a westerly.
* at times.

 

[Donza]

Potential for this to go as a triple whammy system
21st -24th and follow up after.

 

[Guthega Girl]

Potential for this to go as a triple whammy system
21st -24th and follow up after.

Bring that onnnnn and dumpage on Perisher would be nice... Booked my APSI level 1; and wanted to ski on fresh / decent base, so i think i may have got that wish.

I don't mind if it misses the VIC resorts this time around!

 

[Young Angus]

Bring that onnnnn and dumpage on Perisher would be nice... Booked my APSI level 1; and wanted to ski on fresh / decent base, so i think i may have got that wish.

I don't mind if it misses the VIC resorts this time around!

You wash your mouth out! So close to reporting this post as upsetting

 

[Kletterer]

EC Ensembles Charlottes Pass still looking at modest activity across this period.

 

[rocketboy]

Potential for this to go as a triple whammy system
21st -24th and follow up after.

Is that a triple crap or a triple dump.

 

[Donza]

Nothing crap about a whammy.

Like me a good whammy.

 

[Slalom]

Nothing crap about a whammy.

Like me a good whammy.

 

[POW Hungry]

It's already looking like a date extension IMO.
Long way to go, but that backend is looking fine...

Geez, been a while since I said that out loud.

Building...

 

[will it snow]

EC Ensembles Charlottes Pass still looking at modest activity across this period.

Meh colours

 

[POW Hungry]

If I am honest, I wish I never laid eyes on that GFS 00z cut-off (22nd).
So regrettably disheartening.

Hope it's a one-run-wonder.

 

[rocketboy]

Yes a strange update on the ensemble. Looks like a still born cut off that fades away as the ridge reestablishes itself. Yr.no still shows a wonderful few days later next week. What gives.

 

[Scoober]

If I am honest, I wish I never laid eyes on that GFS 00z cut-off (22nd).
So regrettably disheartening.

Hope it's a one-run-wonder.

6,12 and 18 GFS have better outcomes

 

[POW Hungry]

Looks like a week of polar fronts (x3) pushing through with a few days of streaming SW flow on EC.
I like. If it holds on.

 

[Donza]

Spag likes the period 21st to 28th.

*with usual caveats.

 

[rocketboy]

Surely this has to open the door. The first part of the EC ensemble suggests a basic repeat of junefest#1.

Is there some specific atmospheric event elsewhere that's spoiling the party over the maritime continent? @Jellybeans

 

[Jellybeans]

Surely this has to open the door. The first part of the EC ensemble suggests a basic repeat of junefest#1.

Is there some specific atmospheric event elsewhere that's spoiling the party over the maritime continent? @Jellybeans

?

MJO looks pretty mute and probably roughly in our region towards the end of the month.

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

EC is now seeing some proper snow falling at Falls Creek on Friday June 24th. At least that is the modelling on today's forecast.

 

[Kletterer]

GFS 18 Z Main Range 4am 22nd. Good Dew Points and DGZ

 

[rocketboy]

Latest BOM climate outlook is dry reading for rest of June - but with a major reversal for more precip in July.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/weekly/0

 

[POW Hungry]

Backend is gonna get ridged IMO.

 

[rocketboy]

So looking forward to spring break.

 

[Formally_FS04]

Backend is gonna get ridged IMO.

Yep I think so too looking at this morning's charts, the high is too far up

 

[Winterwolf]

Latest BOM climate outlook is dry reading for rest of June - but with a major reversal for more precip in July.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/weekly/0

If you look at the spread of precip in July, that says 'North West Cloud Bands' to me - and that means there's an enhanced danger of pre-frontal. Mixed blessing tbh.

 

[weathersourse]

18z GFS 25th.

On paper that's in the thick of it with polar air. When using
anom ens you also need to look @ the thickness forecast modeling.

 

[weathersourse]

GFS this thinking with the backend atm.

 

[Claude Cat]

Yes, looking better on GFS than EC.
It still looks it might ridge out on the back end, but lets check with the models in a day or two.

 

[weathersourse]

Ukmet @the 23rd lead in.

 

[weathersourse]

Snapshot of Jane's forecast atm only.

 

[rocketboy]

If you look at the spread of precip in July, that says 'North West Cloud Bands' to me - and that means there's an enhanced danger of pre-frontal. Mixed blessing tbh.

I was trying to find a silver lining in them clouds.

 

[Rat trap bindings]

Snapshot of Jane's forecast atm only.

Oh boy Jane is like by wife with those ranges, can’t make up her mind in what to wear…

 

[weathersourse]

Oh boy Jane is like by wife with those ranges, can’t make up her mind in what to wear…

That's a combo from three models with a lot of weight given to the access boms model.

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

Snapshot of Jane's forecast atm only.

A ski up the Horn Road on Fresh cover would be enticing.

 

[Ramshead]

EC Ensembles Charlottes Pass still looking at modest activity across this period.

Member 29 has never known the longing touch of a lover or the silky smoothness of a good Siberian vodka. He or she sits in a dark bedroom all day drinking flat Pepsi Max and playing online Yahtzee

 

[weathersourse]

6pm update on Jane's.

 

[POW Hungry]

She's largely a clipper and a ridge out on EC tonight.
Expect the worst, hope for the best scenario IMO.

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

She's largely a clipper and a ridge out on EC tonight.
Expect the worst, hope for the best scenario IMO.

I am watching what snowfalls result at Falls Creek from the date of June 24th.

 

[weathersourse]

I am watching what snowfalls result at Falls Creek from the date of June 24th.

00z GFS.

 

[Kletterer]

Hmm. EC Ensemble control run has 14 cm on the 27th for Charlottes Pass.

 

[weathersourse]

06 GFS still see'in a trough @25-26 backend.

 

[weathersourse]

06 GFS still see'in a trough @25-26 backend.

 

[D'Ariel]

Temps are decent, not so moisture.