Predictions 21st-26th June system

Rat trap bindings

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 17, 2017
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all these predictions and coments are doing my head in. I’m punting on the good old BOM alpine forecast that will do me for Thredbo this week coming.
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Teddles

Early Days
Jun 1, 2022
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all these predictions and coments are doing my head in. I’m punting on the good old BOM alpine forecast that will do me for Thredbo this week coming.
F5F8171B-017F-4C12-819E-3F19D6D2431E.jpeg
I hear you about the uncertainly doing one's head in.
The thing about the BOM forecast of "Snow showers" is how much will be snow, how much will be showers and what order they come in.
 
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Donza

Dogs body...
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Apr 21, 2004
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Euro's pretty much walked on this one IMO.
GFS is still hav'n a go. But I am anticipating the slide South.
UK Met somewhere in the middle.

Looking across the models tonight, I can't see this producing any more than 5, MAYBE 10cm during next week, with a chance of 10cm or so next weekend BCS.
This.

Moisture in front of the cold air.
Real marginal westerly orientation after days of warm temps.
Net gain 10-15cm above 1750m. From friday.
IMO.
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
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Nov 26, 2014
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EC 18Z showing lacklustre Dew Points for much of Tuesday- particularly Vic.
 

weathersourse

Addicted
May 24, 2022
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EC 18Z showing lacklustre Dew Points for much of Tuesday- particularly Vic.
As a rule of thumb if add the dew point temp with temp it can
give you a probs% for snow on that forecast day.
Added together as A=0 gives a prob of 80% of any precip falling as snow.
ecfull_2022-06-18-18Z_075_-33.302_139.903_-41.266_154.901_Dew_Point_Surface_highways_cities_Me...png


A1 70%
A2 60%
A3 50% and so on.




You may already know that but it's likely other don't.



ecfull_2022-06-18-18Z_075_-33.302_139.903_-41.266_154.901_Temperature_Surface_highways_cities_...png

ecfull_2022-06-18-18Z_075_-33.302_139.903_-41.266_154.901_Relative_Humidity_700_highways_citie...png
 
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Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
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Nov 26, 2014
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EC 10pm Monday - 10pm Tues. Ensembles are still showing a considerable amount of unfavourable precipitation type for this period. Snowline plots are more positive/ contradictory however.
modez_20220620_1200_animation.gif
 
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Star_Hawk

Obsessed with Stats
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Jun 23, 2022
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What time do charts update on weatherzone these days? Still showing this mornings run.
They are so random with their updates, its infuriating sometimes. Sometimes they update regularly, but I've seen them go 3 - 5 days without updating their snow stuff even mid season.
 
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weathersourse

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May 24, 2022
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They are so random with their updates, its infuriating sometimes. Sometimes they update regularly, but I've seen them go 3 - 5 days without updating their snow stuff even mid season.
Really like the way the wz ec displays it's heights and precip chart. But yeah gave it the flick along time ago myself due to the poor updating and slow speed on the site.
 
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