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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Donzah, Aug 11, 2018.
Great! Heading up Friday.
Personally, it’s I don’t see it being a big issue given the zonal winds at the moment.
EC has the cold pool tracking north and establishing a onshore flow for Illawarra to SE Qld.
That looks logical .
Yeah looks strikingly similar to the system through around 9th July. Clears the way for the real deal around the 30th IMO.
GFS loves a farmer.. .And a coastie. ..and a coastal low
Let’s get back on track. I’ll probably take the skiddy Bongo up the GAR Tuesday morning. Tell me there will be fresh snow and sunshine
5-10cm gain for the majors Monday Night through Tuesday IMO.
That’ll do just fine.
Thanks for your work this season POW. Stellar (trustworthy) stuff.
We're down Tues on for a week.
See ya down there! Back down tomorrow.
And yeah, Wed to Friday looks bangin'.
Anyone got any notion of what to expect this weekend? Got a mate heading down for a sneaky one and only escape for the remainder of the season and thinking better off trying to convince him to delay a weekend but suspect family commitments will require some serious negotiating to postpone.
I'm seeing likelihood of some mild wetness and one way or another soft spring snow - all good if it comes with nice weather and warm days. GFS however wants to put a fairly major dampener on things but at the same time provides a nice little negotiation piece for my mate to postpone a week!
As discussed above GFS is a notorious over cooker of these upper level cold pools as they wander the GDR... IMO ignore for now, it’s gone a little rogue on precip and deepening on Friday.
EC buying into a bit of tropical influence by Saturday this morning. I can't see it being a sort of base killer but we're likely to see some rain in the alps, either way.
2m base... gonna take a mother****ing cyclone to kill it.
It shows heavy rain on the Monaro
Must be in fairy land
Dun worry, GFS had a crack the other day...
Where's a hard ridge when you need it... EC backed off on the system under SA (Saturday), leaving things a little more static inland.
I think we'll be spared by it being largely coastal.
As of last night Bom predicting 1-3mm for Perisher. IMO that's pretty good for the Alps, normally with rain events start with 5mm and go up from there. Hopefully it stays north and quickly moves to the coast!!
10-15cm for Perisher tomorrow IMO
Looks like the farmers might get some inland loving from this weirdo system later in the week.....hope so!
I hope you're right. Sat pick looks encouraging as well. I'm confident of finding tree hidden fresh on Friday
**** my timing. Only trip with daughters this weekend.
Loooking less wet
Saturday looks fine
Yep what Donzah said. And often with these trough events it's high cloud so even if it gets a bit grey you're below the cloud line. I said often not always
Pineapple in the afternoon no ?
@Donzah et al, how you vibing on this for Saturday for the Perisher / Tate area?
Im watching with interest as well mate. Early start before she turns pear shaped for the arvo im thinking.
Question is, is it worth hanging about for Sunday/Monday or bring the rods so we can at least go fishing on the way home.
Warm N & NW.
Moisture arriving later in the arvo still.
AXS EC and GFS all agree,
FL will be up aroud the top ...ish
cooler air arrives mid morning Sunday as the wind swings S.
I'm totally going fishing on Sunday and then going to check out mini grom gear at rhythm
Yeah I'm thinking the same though re weather. And hopefully not too much rain sat night eh
Nice - sounding like a corn harvesting day
not so sure it will have had enough freeze melts cycles just yet tho ?
will be goodness somewhere tho on the right elevation and aspect.
no doubt you'll sniff it out.
Yep I have Friday as well but Splitfest Sat always seems to do the Tate area so it limits the amount of sniffing available
I'm always nervous trying my hand at prediction here, but next monday 27th and tuesday 28th have a southerly burst of snow?
As far as I can see GFS, AXS, EC all on board? GFS looks pretty dry though.
Tuesday is looking good at this stage. I recommend everyone just ski Saturday.
Tuesday could clear. Could be a good set up.
The four day chart looks more realistic than GFS at the moment. Than the progression after that is anyone's guess at this point.
We seem to have broken away away from a month of epic predictable set ups (LWT Nodes) and now have have your typical wandering Cool Pools that I would normally associated with Australia.
The good news is the lack of wind in the next couple of set ups, which will fair well on the Main Range and fill all the areas hammered by the NW winds..................
EC looks good IMO
GFS not liking nearly as much but suggesting a very nice bombing low and fat clearing high over the ALPS.'
Bom have downgraded moisture on Tuesday, and upgraded Monday, not what I wanted.
Beggars vs choosers.
Meh unfortunately for graziers or farmers like me on the SWS and southern Riverina but fortunately for the people at the top of the hill I am not seeing much rain in this lot over the next 5 days , maybe 10mm with a possibility that half of that falls as snow up high , maybe over 1800m at PV and Thredbo.
Even so the potential is there just a little further North. The Brogo / Bemboka Fire and others may be brought under control.
This could develop as needed by everyone IMO. Rain Dance Anyone.
Its kind of interesting how this will play out, especially Sunday through too Monday. Ideally if the trough
moves a bit quicker South and links up with the Cold Pool alittle further south and west, it could deliver rain and snow in the Far South East where we need it for the Fire.
Looks a bit better for SydCo with the low passing directly overhead.
Why is this still a "prediction" for august 21st?
"21st on"... it's a bit of a wishy washy period, with nil significant snow bearing systems at least until next week.
I agree further north will get a bit more and they definitely need it more than us so lets all hope for that outcome.
Looking at the forecast maps, to me it looks like Monday could be quite snowy when I’m going to be at Hotham.
@Claude Cat would appreciate your expert take on what will transpire this weekend
IMO looks like this weekend will be mostly fine.
TBH I don't see anything much happening until Friday next (31st).
There's really nothing in the period initially conceived for this thread - please use the 29th thread instead.