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Predictions 21st August on. Ye god's.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Donzah, Aug 11, 2018.

  1. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great! Heading up Friday.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    On GFS*
    Personally, it’s I don’t see it being a big issue given the zonal winds at the moment.
     
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  3. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC has the cold pool tracking north and establishing a onshore flow for Illawarra to SE Qld.
    That looks logical .
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah looks strikingly similar to the system through around 9th July. Clears the way for the real deal around the 30th IMO.
     
  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS loves a farmer.. .And a coastie. ..and a coastal low
     
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  6. Fancy_Pants

    Fancy_Pants Hard Yards

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    Let’s get back on track. I’ll probably take the skiddy Bongo up the GAR Tuesday morning. Tell me there will be fresh snow and sunshine
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    5-10cm gain for the majors Monday Night through Tuesday IMO.
     
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  8. Fancy_Pants

    Fancy_Pants Hard Yards

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    That’ll do just fine.

    Thanks for your work this season POW. Stellar (trustworthy) stuff.
     
  9. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    We're down Tues on for a week.
    Looks sunny!
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    See ya down there! Back down tomorrow.
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    And yeah, Wed to Friday looks bangin'.
     
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  12. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Anyone got any notion of what to expect this weekend? Got a mate heading down for a sneaky one and only escape for the remainder of the season and thinking better off trying to convince him to delay a weekend but suspect family commitments will require some serious negotiating to postpone.

    I'm seeing likelihood of some mild wetness and one way or another soft spring snow - all good if it comes with nice weather and warm days. GFS however wants to put a fairly major dampener on things but at the same time provides a nice little negotiation piece for my mate to postpone a week!
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    As discussed above GFS is a notorious over cooker of these upper level cold pools as they wander the GDR... IMO ignore for now, it’s gone a little rogue on precip and deepening on Friday.
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC buying into a bit of tropical influence by Saturday this morning. I can't see it being a sort of base killer but we're likely to see some rain in the alps, either way.
     
  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    2m base... gonna take a mother****ing cyclone to kill it.
     
  16. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It shows heavy rain on the Monaro
    Must be in fairy land LOL
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dun worry, GFS had a crack the other day...
    Where's a hard ridge when you need it... EC backed off on the system under SA (Saturday), leaving things a little more static inland.
    I think we'll be spared by it being largely coastal.
     
  18. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    As of last night Bom predicting 1-3mm for Perisher. IMO that's pretty good for the Alps, normally with rain events start with 5mm and go up from there. Hopefully it stays north and quickly moves to the coast!!
     
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  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]

    10-15cm for Perisher tomorrow IMO
     
  20. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Looks like the farmers might get some inland loving from this weirdo system later in the week.....hope so!
     
  21. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I hope you're right. Sat pick looks encouraging as well. I'm confident of finding tree hidden fresh on Friday :)
     
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  22. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    **** my timing. Only trip with daughters this weekend.
     
  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Loooking less wet
    Saturday looks fine
     
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  24. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep what Donzah said. And often with these trough events it's high cloud so even if it gets a bit grey you're below the cloud line. I said often not always :)
     
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  25. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pineapple in the afternoon no ?
     
  26. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Donzah et al, how you vibing on this for Saturday for the Perisher / Tate area?
     
  27. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Im watching with interest as well mate. Early start before she turns pear shaped for the arvo im thinking.

    Question is, is it worth hanging about for Sunday/Monday or bring the rods so we can at least go fishing on the way home.
     
  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Warm N & NW.
    Moisture arriving later in the arvo still.
    AXS EC and GFS all agree,
    FL will be up aroud the top ...ish
    cooler air arrives mid morning Sunday as the wind swings S.
     
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  29. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm totally going fishing on Sunday and then going to check out mini grom gear at rhythm :)

    Yeah I'm thinking the same though re weather. And hopefully not too much rain sat night eh ;)
     
  30. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice - sounding like a corn harvesting day :)
     
  31. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    not so sure it will have had enough freeze melts cycles just yet tho ?
    will be goodness somewhere tho on the right elevation and aspect.
    no doubt you'll sniff it out.
     
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  32. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep :) I have Friday as well but Splitfest Sat always seems to do the Tate area so it limits the amount of sniffing available ;)
     
  33. sbm_

    sbm_ One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'm always nervous trying my hand at prediction here, but next monday 27th and tuesday 28th have a southerly burst of snow?

    As far as I can see GFS, AXS, EC all on board? GFS looks pretty dry though.

     
  34. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tuesday is looking good at this stage. I recommend everyone just ski Saturday.
     
  35. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Tuesday could clear. Could be a good set up.
     
  36. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The four day chart looks more realistic than GFS at the moment. Than the progression after that is anyone's guess at this point.

    We seem to have broken away away from a month of epic predictable set ups (LWT Nodes) and now have have your typical wandering Cool Pools that I would normally associated with Australia.

    The good news is the lack of wind in the next couple of set ups, which will fair well on the Main Range and fill all the areas hammered by the NW winds..................
     
  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    EC looks good IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  38. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS not liking nearly as much but suggesting a very nice bombing low and fat clearing high over the ALPS.'

    [​IMG]
     
  39. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom have downgraded moisture on Tuesday, and upgraded Monday, not what I wanted.
     
  40. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Beggars vs choosers.
    Biatch!
     
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  41. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    Meh unfortunately for graziers or farmers like me on the SWS and southern Riverina but fortunately for the people at the top of the hill I am not seeing much rain in this lot over the next 5 days , maybe 10mm with a possibility that half of that falls as snow up high , maybe over 1800m at PV and Thredbo.
     
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  42. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Even so the potential is there just a little further North. The Brogo / Bemboka Fire and others may be brought under control.

    This could develop as needed by everyone IMO. Rain Dance Anyone.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #92 7wombathead, Aug 24, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2018
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  43. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Its kind of interesting how this will play out, especially Sunday through too Monday. Ideally if the trough
    moves a bit quicker South and links up with the Cold Pool alittle further south and west, it could deliver rain and snow in the Far South East where we need it for the Fire.
     
  44. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks a bit better for SydCo with the low passing directly overhead.
     
  45. Gimped

    Gimped One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Why is this still a "prediction" for august 21st?
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    "21st on"... it's a bit of a wishy washy period, with nil significant snow bearing systems at least until next week.
     
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  47. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    I agree further north will get a bit more and they definitely need it more than us so lets all hope for that outcome.:thumbs:
     
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  48. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Looking at the forecast maps, to me it looks like Monday could be quite snowy when I’m going to be at Hotham.

    @Claude Cat would appreciate your expert take on what will transpire this weekend
     
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO looks like this weekend will be mostly fine.
    TBH I don't see anything much happening until Friday next (31st).
     
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  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    There's really nothing in the period initially conceived for this thread - please use the 29th thread instead.