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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by MickM, Aug 22, 2006.
For what it is worth!
theres a bit of snow at the top of thredbo, but rain in the village.
Spring in Sydney. 25 degrees and blue skies.
short skirts out on George Street !
It is getting cooler at PB so we might get white stuff tonight. It is a bit sad when we get excited about 5 - 10cm's. Can't see much in it for the next few days, but hey its nearly spring and we will all be tuning out soon.
Heading for 27 in Brissie...
Actually just had a light shower of rain in Canberra. Very unusual!!
It hasn't rained since we got 0.2mm on the 1st of August. Today's shower won't be enough to register in the guage - but might settle the dust just a bit.
Anyway it might mean a few flakes in the Brindabellas to build on the massive base they have up there (not....)
bloody hell i have really lost faith in weather forecasting... They haven't seemed to forecast it right once this whole bloody season..
The bureau has been pretty good from two days out. Anything more than that at the moment is like a fairy story.
At PB today it has snowed, rained, snowed, rained, snowed, rained, and now cleared up again...
Yer i guess that's true, i'm just worried it's going to be **** when i go up this friday for a week to Falls Creek.. Can anyone please puts my hopes up and tell me if the runs that are open are any good?? I just need reassurance!
I'll be there for a week from Sunday. I've been on a rollercoaster ride watching the forecasts, now I've given up. It is what it is, the main thing is most of the reports from people coming back from Falls have been positive even with SFA snow falls.
crap day in the hills today, rained below 1600-1700m, then marginal above that.
looks like 06 is over, pack away the ski's and board's boys and girls
Never even bothered to get them out.
That is allot of moisture around Adelaide on the Radar. Temps are not good though at around 17 Deg. Might be OK above 1800m or so and hopefully some mositure will hang around into Friday when the cooler air arrives.
Will give it another run on the weekend but the new skis will remain in the cupboard. Being on the mountain beats being in the city.
plenty of precip streaming into the state! Temps below 0 in the alps hopefully there a little cool air in the alpine area to give us some snow rather than rain need some luck this season hoping this is it
Is this expected to fall tonight or mainly tomorrow during the day or both?!
http://www.ski.com.au/weather/radars.html this look pretty good i think :S
The forecast is for 10cm snow above 1800m... Argh!
They should get bloody huge air conditioners to cool the air down!!!
Also what temp does it usually snow at??
If the temp 'felt like' -7.2 but it was only about -0.2 would it snow or just be rain?
Sorry im not too good at weather.
I dont know about what everyone else thinks but i think the snow line will be a little lower than 1800m, looking at the current temps thredbo is still -1.5, and Swan hill only hit 17 today before dropping to 14.7 and if your look at the radar the rain band is about at swan hill or just past it.
i wish i never, now i got sick scratches all over my custom
Don't many people go on to this part of the forums or something???
Lol i want more info
The way i understand it wind chill does not make it snow, if its 3 degrees and -5 wind chill it will more than likly be rain.
I think all the weather gurus have given up on 2006.
the radar looks like it will hit tonight, temps at Falls are aroud 0, hope it drops a bit.
like i asked.. what temp does it need to be for it to snow?
Thredbo down to -1.8, Deniliquin down to 14.4 the front has just moved through there and albury has droped to 14.8
your obviously shatting your dacks over the conditions at Falls so I'll give you some info even though this probably belongs on the Snow Chat side of things.
I just came back from a week and a half up there with +1 and a half.
When we arrived it was good uptop in Sun Valley but the Summit still hadn't opened. The terrain was crap and the snow around the dam had disappeared but the groomed runs where OK.
The main problem was the ice to slush thing that happened every day as it was pretty warm for the first four days. Melt during the day, freeze at night = ice skating - you need legs like Arnie to get your edges in (boarder or skiier).
So basically it was ski from opening time til twelve and then relax til later in the day.
Towards last Thursday it got colder and then on Thurs morning it snowed for half a day and put a nice layer of powdery snow over every thing.
The whole place got the winter wonderland look about it and I got the worst case of the flu I've ever had.
Saturday was snow and bits of ice and the day stayed around -3 all day, they still had the guns going at 1000 am.
In general Falls is holding together (in Sun Valley) pretty well. You can still ski thru trees on some runs and there is some terrain over near Ruined Castle that would be good for extreme dim witted boarders who don't mind risking the odd broken bone, but generally I'd be happy with the groomed runs.
One thing worth mentioning is that the Home Trail turns to crap on the blue run section every day and you have mounds of slush and beginner snowboarders to put up with. Apart from that its a good water ski.
Mate, I've been looking at the snowcams and a whole lot doesn't seemed to have changed in the last coupla days. If you can handle some fun boarding on groomed slopes head up to Falls.
If you want powder stashes amongst the rocks and tree's save it til next year.
All in all I had a great time up there and had some epic ski days. I've gotta give credit to the Falls plumbers and snow makers. The snow making up there this year must have cost a packet and given the conditions I reckon it was a supreme effort.
I hope they get a bit more natural stuff to add to the ambience but I can't see it coming off so you should be happy with whats there.
As long as it stays cold and doesnt rain you'll be ok.
My rating for a lift ticket - about 7 out of ten, but then its not their fault.
And one more thing Gilby, look at the snow cams and the weatherzone obs for Falls you can make your own mind up then and stop flapping.
lol sorry about that.
Yer i have been looking at them and the rain/moisture chart thing on the BOM.
But anyway thanks for that i guess
I'm no expert, but I think the air temp and dew point need to match to produce the precip, and that temp needs to be less than 0 all the way down. If it hits warmer air it comes down as sleet or wet snow. I think....
So looking at this page it is getting closer to snowing, but we need it to stay under 0 and hope there's no warm air around.
Mate, I just had a look at the radar, and the temperature obs on the AWS. I suggest you have a look at the car park cam at around 2300 tonite and I can GUARANTEE you will see some white stuff.
From experience, all you need is a temp in the minusus and some moisture and that mountain will deliver.
When are you heading up?
Yep, looks like a dusting, should help.
Gilby, I wouldn't stress too much, there aint much we can do about it anyway, and if you are there for a week, the forecast will change half a dozen times by the end of your trip anyway.
Either way there won't be a huge dump to change the current state of play. Just hope for cold temps and no R**N....
I'm going up on friday for a week.
I know there probably won't be too much snow, but all i hope for is a little more cover so it wont be really patchy. Thanks guys
The 6 day forecast for Falls looks good over here if the R**N stays away tomorrow:
God damn R@#$... Hopefully they are wrong again
having not looked at any charts since this morning (im just about to) i can say this one is way too warm for snow below 1800m and possibly 1900m. Charts have been crap this year, so im also just looking out the window and being outside today it felt like a spring rain front, not a winter front.
She's just not gonna happen this year.
Looking at radar and stuff, rain seems to be fairly light at the moment but the initial front is building, which isnt ideal. Lookout Hill temps at 4.2C which means its not as bad as i thought initially, we could have a chance of some lower level snow. There is a lot of rain in the SA/VIC boarder area, and dont forget temps will rise in the alps as the front approaches, so its still touch and go.
Stop panicking. If its under zero up there and there is moisture it'll snow. It'll be wet but it will be snow.
We always look at the little shelter next to the dunnies on the Village Bowl cam as a good indicator.
If its white its snow. If its black and shiny its rain or nothing.
You'll be right, the temp is going down into the minus's and theres a band of rain heading across Vic.
GFS seems to be quite good one or two days out this season i've noticed.
Was going to go up this weekend, making a few phone calls to on mountain friends who will give some reports. Rain is an extreem possibility, so is snow, but the accumulation in the end may be minimal and not worth it.
So glad i got to Buller first week of August.
I thought you were heading up to Falls?
we can all feel it not happening, and have all year I guess but can't help wishing for that one good system right there in the zone. Oh well maybe if the skis get trashed enough at PB next weekend I have a better defence for some new (fat ???) Volkl's
The bowl doesn't update after 5pm, so watch the carpark. There's some cars there see if they turn white.
Temps are still OK, keep those fingers crossed.
also thinking of a friday dash to Thredbo depending on.... tomorrow...wet or wetter ?? sounds promising -ish from you guys watching Vic.
Almost minus one at Falls, with a big fat green moisture band heading across the state.
Not heavy, but its a hundred kilometre wide sucker so what it lacks in immediate dump it should make up for in steady accumulation.
When I was up there last week the Thursday snow event was on the back of extremely light winds so the front had some hang time. Lets hope this is the same.
Maybe 10cm if we are lucky.
Looking good above 1600m I reckon lower if the temps drop a bit more but its not looking that promising for a minus 2 night.
Well i guess it won't be as bad as it was about 5-6 yrs (2nd week of sept!!!) ago when only about 5 lifts were open!
meh. ill have to use what i have got
intensifying rainband about to get near Melbourne now, looks good for rainfall, looks bad for snowfall.