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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by MickM, Aug 22, 2006.
hate to say i told you so.
it was never going to happen
The 5400 line is progged to be above the Vic resorts early tomorrow and this is pretty consistent with the cold southerly fetch that is creeping northward thru Bass Straight at the moment.
If you look at the BOM sat pic you can see the cold speckled air mass moving north slowly and the temperatures at some AWS are starting to drop very slowly as they come under the influence of the southerly flow.
I think that there is a chance of some snow tonite and tomorrow morning particularly in the Victorian resorts.
The more northerly and eastern facing areas may not fare so well due to the lingering influence created by todays system. Plus, the NSW resorts appear to have much more to make up for in terms of cover than Hotham and Falls who didn't seem to record as much rain.
There is still some hope I think, so check the cams in the morning around ten, it could be interesting.
If it was in the minus' all today and last night how much snow would be on the ground since this system came? Because their was a big amount of rain. And in the last hour thredbo top station has seen 12.6mm of rain.
Last 24 hours has seen around 25mm of rain. Roughly in Australia you can expect 1mm = 1+cm.
Lets see what happens tonight. Rain was expected in this system, and then followed cooler air and snow.
Also note the wind is still out of the NW. Wait for it to swing w and then south for the cold air.
I hope your right but it looks to me that by the time the cooler air mass arrives most of the moisture will have left the building. I guess first light will reveal all.
An amazing amount of rain fell at Thredbo today (and PB apparently).
There was inches of water lying over the snow on high noon and the Supertrail today, but surprisingly the snow was still pretty good. Scarey to see so much rain fall.
At the Basin it was sleet/freezing rain, damned painful with the wind (and zero visibility).
I hope it cools down fast, was 8 degrees in the village today.
Seen this all before in July 2003. Massive amounts of rain (I think about 100mm)then followed by about 10cm of snow which made the skiing good the next day. Big issue this year is that we have no base.
10 news perth stated that the WA south coast has its first spring front setting up. apparently the spring fronts take some of the power out of the systems heading east . certainly feels like winter is trying to finish.
The Weather Channel at 5pm's snow report said PB 20cms for tomorrow Ha. Would be nice if they were right ,especially as COLA has downgraded from 5-10cms to 1-5 cms. Temps are dropping slightly though. Think my week from Sunday will be cut short unless Blue Cow(higher) is OK. Dont know if they got something out of todays moisture. Hope Rossi is right!
There are some good negative numbers appearing in Tasmania at the moment. Mt Wellington and some other areas are in the minus'.
If the fetch can make it up to VIC lets hope the cold and some orographics can generate the moisture.
But the current warm blanket of mid level moisture needs to shift first.
I think the southerly maritime air will bring precipitation of the positive kind but its a question of how far north this gets.
wont happen. TAS got the temps but not quite the amount of moisture, mainland got the moisture but not the temps. And it wasnt just like half a degree or so off, it was a good 2C off being snow.
gotta drop 2.5C minimum before that turns to snow, and thats not going to happen any time soon.
this country sucks.
Umm well you do live in Canberra! Sorry VSG
Hotham just into the negatives, and Buller about 1degree at the moment.
Not much more precip to come through for Vic now, the Fat lady has sung once again!
Been snowing since about 5am, only a couple of cm's so far. Let's see how long it lasts.
You forecasters are funny.
With the past trends in weather perhaps we will not get much snow at all out of this system, but anything can happen, there is no way of telling no matter how well you can read the charts.
Perisher cams show a definite fall of snow all the way to the car park level.
If it continues during the day I will be very
Charlotte Pass reported 2cm of snow. But if you look at the snow cam it looks much much better then that
Snowing pretty hard now, have to sign off. Will update this evening.
Told ya all last night it was gonna snow.
Not putting any great depths in this but the fetch is still looking good for a day of on an off snow.
Well done style doggie. i cancelled my Sept trip to Hotham, lost $300 and booked a week in Methven. Whole trip will cost only $2000!. Hey if Hutt's shut you've got plenty of other options like Porters or Broken River. Porters has its best snow in 25years!
My mate at Falls reports it is now snowing heavier there.
The forecast snow level is the lowest level that snow is expected to fall in the 24 hour period. The forecast snow amount is the average across all resorts. So it is not 5-10cm for everywhere above 1400m. That forecast is probably for 10cm on the peaks and <1cm <1500m.
Snowing on Buller, on and off since about 5am this morning. Lightly snowing at the moment.
Just a dusting- 1cm at the moment.
Steady good snow since 0500 at Dinner Plain, with little sign of easing. About 3" so far, it's even settled on the mesh top to the ski basket, so it must be heavy
Looks sweet looks like its pumping down! Plenty of precip comming in from the SE heading to the alps so if this came continue all day we will be sitting pretty possibly that luck i was talking about pages and pages ago
Hotham/Falls look like they have got well over 10cms so far.
Buller looks minimal
Snowing steadily/solidly. 1-2cm in the last hour and half.
Seems to have stopped at PB but a bit hard to tell from the cams.
You cant really tell from those cams.
Temps are dropping in SE Vic but unfortunately so is the precipitation. Need the low to slow its tracking east but we should still get a bit from it yet. Probably all over by this evening but we can always hope.
So whats the net loss at the NSW resorts.
16mm of rain at the top of thredders yesterday? it must have been a tidal wave. At least lake jindy should be looking a bit fuller.
Nah, still snowing.
lol.. well, I used to for a few years
Now im back in adelaide where ski trips cost twice as much and can't be cancelled
Can't complain about today's snow falls tho
Just spoke to someone at PB and they said they have had 5 - 10 of very wet snow and it is covering the carpark. He said it is snowing heavier now than before so hopefully the temps are droping.
The slopes have been damaged by the rain so we need a bit to make up the loss.
Jindy and Eucumbene need a whole lot more then a piddly 16mm maybe 166mm and you might see a slight rise.
It's snowing heavily at Lake Crackenback (Thredbo Valley app. 1100m).
PB website reports 10cm so far.
mt p creek looks filled in
My God Professor, It's ALIVE! IT'S ALIVE!!
who remembers seeing the Cam shot of smiggins yesterday ? It was very patchy.
This morning's shot shows it completely covered again so they must have had a good 10cm and that's at about 1600m.
Top of Mt P / Thredbo would have have had 15cm+++ ?
This is the Smigs Cam shot now.
yesterday this was VERY patchy.
Take a look at the V8 cam, looks to be absolutely bucketing down!!! Look how much is in the trees in the foreground too!!
..and it's still falling The temperature at Thredbo AWS has been gradually falling since early morning and the sat loops look good for a few more hours yet.
looks like last Thursday, but has decided to kick on pass lunch time.
How many cms left do you reckons?????????
Only told the wife this morning the sept ski trip is off. Maybe just maybe.
a metre perhaps
Snowing in Berridale nice fat flakes- Was rainy snow and has just turned to snow only. I think we may see some snow settle this afternoon. Break out ya chains Yee haa!!!!