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Predictions 22-26th July - The Neg AAO tips it's hat to SE Aus

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jul 13, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking like a big LWT node moving through our region during this date range.
    GFS currently points toward a strong shortwave through the SE on the 26th, whilst EC signals it for the 23rd/24th.
    According to a number of EC members, there are indications that it peaks over SW WA, however I think it has the potential to shift it's peak and ridge Eastwards into our lap.

    GFS:

    EC (23th):

    EC ensembles:
     
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  2. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  3. Every2years

    Every2years Hard Yards

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    Really like learning from people here. Thanks for the efforts.

    Have a vested interest in this one as we will be in Falls from the 21st.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Progression on GFS and EC this morning are more aligned.
    EC for the 22nd:

    GFS:
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    JMA for the 23rd:

    JMA - 200mb jet
     
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  8. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    Wow definitely no ridging on that one. The low looks a bit too closed off now but if the fetch from the south becomes better, there could snow all the way up the NSW ranges. Speculation at this stage of course, though.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Note this is EC ensembles mean, so I wouldn't take much notice of the structure (surface pressure structure etc) as it's the 'mean plot' of 52 model members.
     
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  10. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    Oh okay so it just gives a rough idea, thanks for that. Now I know what ensemble means.
     
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  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 12 Z run. Not much difference between Master and Control.
     
  12. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am watching this weather system and hope it can add to the snow base that we now seem to have here in VIC. locations and in NSW.
     
  13. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    When CG asks what she’s getting for her birthday, I guess I’m gonna say ‘you’re getting pow thanks to @POW_hungry !!’
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    We can live in hope for CG.
    [​IMG]
     
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  15. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    AAO says yes
    GFS and EC saying yes


    Looks solid IMO
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's looking like the AAO influence will back off significantly over the next week.
    Expect downgrades IMO.
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here's EC's Ensembles (CTRL), as I think it paints a better picture than a flakey Deterministic at the moment.
     
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  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    GEFS doesn’t mind it:


    GEPS also doesn’t mind it for a nice little event.


    I think this is on the money unfortunately FWIW.

    I think it will be a nice top-up IMO from what I can see.
    Somewhere from 10-30cm.
     
  19. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Nice .. Skiing 2 Aug , POW keep it up, appreciate your knowledge
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big reinforcing blow to the SE on EC’s 12z this morning, for the 23rd/24th.
    There looks to be some mess ahead of it as the WA peaker (21st) dives under the SE.
    GFS determ is all over the place. Keep an eye on the Ensembles instead.
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The neg AAO sure has allowed a slew of cold systems to spin out from the deep south. Might not matter too much if the AAO returns to near neutral later this week - should be enough flying around to whack us at least once or twice more before the thaw begins. moreover there is quite a bit of divergence in the ensemble members for the AAO forecast and we might just get lucky with a second dip. Hesitant to suggest a repeat of 2017 as that included the biggest single rain event at PV recorded by BOM for winter - despite what came after. But it sure is a near mirror for 2017 so far with the early start, a great June, an awful start to schoolies before it all went crazy.

    null school shows the action around the southern ocean very clearly at the 850 levels
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...raphic=-162.07,-83.58,431/loc=148.410,-36.410
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ‘17 was heavily influenced by -ive IOD, so we’re bowling on a different pitch ATM. But yep, I tend to agree with all your other points.
     
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  24. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    was wondering what the key difference was this year. so many variables and at the end of the day it really is all noise - other than it being nominally winter. hopefully not 2015 though - which was similar to start but failed to ever really launch,
     
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  25. Gleno71

    Gleno71 Hard Yards

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    Very informative, thanks to all posting the charts
     
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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    10 am and 4 pm ECMWF
     
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  27. @ week 3 into 4.
    A few decent intermittent c/fronts and a possible cutoff low, to end the month on.
     
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  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AAO models still struggle with rounding errors. There tends to be a big spread of Longitude in cyclonic centres.
     
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  29. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Are we open to Volcanic dust. Has there been enough eruptions. there have been a number
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    My understanding is we'd need another Pinatubo ('91) to see any significant winter impacts in our region. Even then it can be months before you see any WX side-effects of anything happening in the last month or two.
    Far too little, too soon IMO.
     
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  31. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ooh Minecraft weather app !
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS D progging back-to-back runs of the 23rd System.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Canucks not showing any interest.
    IMO
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can't say the Canuck has been a LR model of choice for me, for some months now. ;)

    EC hinting a cut-off this evening, which follows suit of GFS ensembles of late.
    [​IMG]
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I still rate it more reliable than GFS, but as a verification against EC mostly.

    IMO.
     
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  36. gfs-aus-z500_anom_1day-3926400.png whats not to like about the GFS!!!

    gfs-aus-z500_anom_1day-3969600.png

     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  38. ICON is streched atm. Next run should cover the date,Atm appears on paper it will follow the current GFS polar air mass solution.
    xx_model-en-304-0_moddeu_2019071500_180_10_310 (1).png




     
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  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  40. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Yr. No doesn't want a bar of it atm.
     
  41. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    ???? Yr for Buller has 10mm on 23rd into 24th
     
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  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its picking on Tasmania first.
     
  43. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Oops sorry perisher
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC (YrNo data) has the projection of the cut-off to develop through central NSW.
    It's best to interpret through Ensembles for now, IMO.
     
  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 00Z EC run is juxtaposed imo. The 12 Z run was closer to general trend.
     
  46. Did not do to good today. A droopy set on a redhead.
    download (1).png
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    IYO.
    lol.
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS Ensembles still staying with a high amplitude 500mb perturbation. It's all about that reinforcement after the frontal system through SW WA on the 19th (strong anom, making it difficult to see beyond).
    [​IMG]

    JMA actually really likes it being hand-balled to the trailing system on the 25th.


    With a Southern Ocean Clipper on EC this morning:

    The quest for alignment continues.
     
  49. EC12z brings it just a tad to quick from SA into VIC.
    ecmwf-newsouthwales-z500_anom-3883200.png xx_model-en-304-0_modez_2019071512_198_10_310 (1).png xx_model-en-304-0_modez_2019071512_198_10_528.png






     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trend is a little of a concern on EC but the back and forth with all models in this date range says to me there’s something good there, just hard to see yet.
    This one may not reveal itself until it checks into WA on Friday, IMO.