Predictions 22-26th July - The Neg AAO tips it's hat to SE Aus

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Bread n butter ens was all over the trough, download (6).png download (8).png
download (6).png


download (8).png


Most weight imo.
 
ACC G suggests incoming westerly belt wave is going to peak over SW WA on friday 19th July and fall to the SE afterward.
Just giving perhaps Tasmania the goods.
However l see another wave arriving just behind it .,In the Bight on Monday the 22nd JULY.Which also looks to be aligning with a mid latitude trough.
WA forecast trough 19th July 2019.jpg

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
 
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Jellybeans

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Yeah the 26th-29th period looks better IMO.
The 23rd/24th system looks like a slider from WA, 10cm kind of system or some rain.
 

Kletterer

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There sure is an imbalance of forces in the Jetstream leading up to this period @ 60 East. Thats some serious upper convergence there and the amplitude and complexity of parcel movement may be difficult to determin eventual outcomes .Click image to enlarge
irro_wind_84.png
 

Jellybeans

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It’s just that there is a big split between GFS/CMC and EC.
It will be certainly interesting to see where it pans towards.
 

POW Hungry

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The pie in the sky -6c 850's from GFS is winding back (as generally expected).
ACC-R now has it in it's sights at 156hrs, although with 850's at around -2c.
Tassie will cop a pummeling from the westerly belt. VIC/NSW, jury is out.
AXS-G?
Access has been drinking the kool-aid with GFS. Would love to see it come off.
But yeah those Westerlies look good for wind/swell to rip the Sorell Buoy to pieces.
2019-07-17_13-38-23.jpg
 

Jellybeans

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Bit of snow in strange places about it as the cold pool wanders north.
Yeah the cut-off cold pool extends up towards Coffs Harbour (about 30.3 S).
Same on GFS. It’s certainly paving to look like that kind of system.

They just disagree in that GFS says colder and relatively drier, EC says more precip.
They agree it’s happening though which is a good point to be at now.
 
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Gregah

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The taxpayer's forecasters are bumping upwards (Hotham). Unless the models reverse their trend I predict further bumpage tomorrow to 15mm - 20mm (upper end).
upload_2019-7-17_17-8-49.png
 
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POW Hungry

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06Z GFS.
Still looking good for falls in the realm of 10-25cm IMO.
My concern lays in ensemble support and high MSL pressures @ landfall inhibiting deep level sheer and good falls, yet.
gfs_z500a_aus_25.png
 
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Kletterer

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EC 12 Z. The path of greatest wind shear instability has improved over the 00Z run. More sustained with a better positioned Downstream ( tail end ) .With hope it may stay that course without slipping South or pushing beyond the Alps.Steady as she goes.
xx_model-en-304-0_modez_2019071712_135_13491_244.png
 

Jellybeans

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EC 12 Z. The path of greatest wind shear instability has improved over the 00Z run. More sustained with a better positioned Downstream ( tail end ) .With hope it may stay that course without slipping South or pushing beyond the Alps.Steady as she goes.
xx_model-en-304-0_modez_2019071712_135_13491_244.png
Looks like CMC was yesterday.
GFS looks more consistent run to run for the moment. With colder temps and snow in strange places.
 
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Yes, just enough. amplitude.
Zoomed into NSW ACC g and confirms.
I finally found the latitude co ordinates and can now pin point on Thredo at
Thredbo/Coordinates
36.5013° S, 148.3104° E
A strong precip' signal. coming from the SW , over the VIC border on tuesday night , 23rd July
Just tags the T hredbo region..
Again l like the overnight timing of this precip' band.
but not so much the mslp of 1016hpa
Here is a zoomed in image of wednesday morning around 4am

23rd July 2019 NSW snlw bearing front.jpg

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/cha...&area=NSW&model=CSCG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View
 
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