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Predictions 22-26th July - The Neg AAO tips it's hat to SE Aus

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jul 13, 2019.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. That SWJS wants to flex its muscles- Stay north you rotten sod
     
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  2. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    9-km ECMWF International Surface New South Wales 500 hPa Temperature.gif 9-km ECMWF International Surface New South Wales 700 hPa Temperature (1).gif 00z EC upper temps.

     
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  3. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    00z CMC
    gem-newsouthwales-t500-3904800.png gem-newsouthwales-t700-3904800.png nice

     
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  4. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    typical winter pattern we could expect JW. !
     
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  5. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    It looks very deep and cold on EC, just not far north enough on 23/24th.
     
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  7. TinkyH23

    TinkyH23 Hard Yards

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    There's no predictions thread for 19th-21st July?
     
  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    5cms on Sunday for the resorts.
    A dusting maybe tonight for VIC resorts.
    Not much there.
     
  9. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    That's a pretty big difference between EC and CMC. -27 at 500mb is nothing to write home about, but -32 is quite cold. GFS is approximately in the middle of the two, with the cold pool slipping just south of the NSW Alpine areas. CMC seems a little too optimistic compared to the other models IMO. Hopefully we see a general consensus to the models moving that cold pool northwards but I'm not expecting it.

     
  10. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    CMC wavey looks better because it is a fuzz ball /cutoff low from
    the main trough over the alps.
     
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  11. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    I'm looking at what appears to be the exact same CMC model run as posted above (ie. 00z, +138h), but the temps look completely different on BSCH stormcast?

    24.7.19 cmc.JPG
     
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Must be old modelling.
     
  13. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    Like an older version of the CMC model?
     
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  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes.
     
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  15. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    AAO is heading in the wrong direction again. Latest GFS now looks more like a clipper. Next!
     
  16. Kino

    Kino Early Days Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not sure that's a given looking at the unreliability and accuracy of the forecast models of late....

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    12z cmc held serve with the last run.
    gem-newsouthwales-t500-3883200.png gem-newsouthwales-t700-3883200.png
     
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  18. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    GFS going for up to 10cm on Sunday night for all major VIC and NSW resorts (I know its not within the date range but just thought it was worth noting). Odd little inversion going on with lower level temps Sunday afternoon into Monday with 925hpa temps down to 2C. Should be cold enough for village level Thredbo. Considering the models as of 2 days ago were going for 850 temps of 7-9C for this period, its much better than what could have been. CMC saying around 5-10cm and EC going for around 5cm
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Downgrades have always been on the menu for this range as per post #16, given the fighting chance against unsupportive AAO+ trend.
    Alas, a week on, we still have a system. We'll take 10-25cm on any given Sunday at this point in the season.
    EC supports better falls on the 12Z run this morning.
     
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  20. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    Waiting on the next frames to load GFS, looks on track so far.
    gfs-shemi-t700-3786000.png
     
  21. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    GFS
    gfs-newsouthwales-t500-3894000.png gfs-newsouthwales-t700-3894000.png gfs-newsouthwales-rh700-3894000.png gfs-newsouthwales-vort500_z500-3904800.png




    considering only need -4 @ 700mb with moisture, this run floats my boat.
     
  22. foxbat

    foxbat Hard Yards

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    apologies....but a newbie to all these reports......heading down on Sunday.....so we looking at some decent falls around the 23rd?
     
  23. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    Snow and wind i think atm. With some localised heavy falls.
    POW and Jelly can prolly fine tune it for you.
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do love that vort @Jwintermix
    Enough to shake the money from the tree, so to speak, provided we see some upper level moisture.
     
  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    15-25cm IMO based off those GFS runs, and EC this morning.
    Those vorticity plots that @Jwintermix shows, demonstrate intense snowfalls as those vort bands pass.

    It’s certainly looking colder than EC 12z. With 534 lines deep into the interior, snow levels down to 600-700m in Victoria.
     
  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS looks quite reasonable actualy. There is good upper level Divergence and accompanying Ascent 700 to 400 hPa where the embedded trough is visible on this plot. Good vort as mentioned.
     
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  27. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's a wrap.

    Maybe a final burst mid sept. hopefully it doesn't warm up too much before then.

    Unless something weird happens next weeks there is a near zero chance there will a season extension this year.

    At this rate, we will be lucky to have the carpet running on the October LWE.
     
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  28. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    06z GFS......... chill. Will take a rest bombing with models. I know it can get a tad old.
    gfs-newsouthwales-z500_anom-3894000.png



    gfs-newsouthwales-uv850_mslp-3894000.png upto 60kts @1458 m when the change hits thinks GFS.
     
  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Whats all the panic about ------------ ? Comparison EC 00z yesterday and 00z today
     
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  30. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    R u avin a laff gov?
     
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  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And throw in a bit more on 26th
     
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  32. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Suspect their time is over, therefore so is their season. :p
     
  33. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Going to be 240++ at Spencers ..
     
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  34. Kino

    Kino Early Days Ski Pass: Gold

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    And here I was thinking only Weatherzone had them....seems they’re here too...
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. Pack it up.
    Close the lifts and better luck next year.:rolleyes:
     
  36. Bendalong+

    Bendalong+ One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats a bit neg so early, you got something else on?
     
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  37. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    You obviously don’t know @rocketboy ;) He was calling peak season depth at the end of may, before the season had even started:D Definitely a glass half empty kind of guy. However, sometimes the glass really is half empty;)
     
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  38. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    He's called peak depth after every system for the last three seasons... but it's been a highly effective reverse psychology technique so we should all be thanking him LOL
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS going bold this morning for the 23rd, with a nice little embedded low forming just East of the Bight.
    Do like. Hope it stays.
     
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  40. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This specific thread is partly about the AAO cycle. According to the latest forecast it's now closing the door hard on the AAO having any positive influence in the coming weeks. So yer that's a wrap on the AAO this month.

    Next neg downswing is apx early to mid Sept based on the last few cycles. Based on how the temps have played out for this neg cycle and the one before - it was touch and go as to which way the temps would play out. By September it could be not so pretty with temps falling short and the heavens opening up with 100 mm of rain.

    Mid August is often the death knell of the aussie season. That weird warmwave that so often comes through in August could hit very hard this year. Just look at the temps we are seeing this winter outside of the mountains. It was like late Sept yesterday in Jindy. A classic low humidity night made for good snow making last night - but it sure doesn't make for good natural falls.

    Hopefully, PowHungry is right and their are plenty of cold non-AAO related weather events over August. The next 10 days looks ok for some top ups. And should make for a stellar fortnight ahead of which I'll be enjoying every day of bar a couple to ditch the kids home today.

    But after that it's either the abyss or just a slow decline as the pack melts away. We know how fast the snow pack goes once spring bites. Just look at the SH snow depth charts.

    Snowmaking is set to run well into Sept this year as it did in 2015. They have a nice overhang in the budget from last year given snowmaking mostly stopped in early July in 2018.

    As to a season extension this year - we need a ton more snow for that to happen this year. As it stands now the season will wrap up mid October NSW school hols on Oct 7. Chances of their been an extension beyond that was always quite low given the dates - but they have done such twice since 2012 - with the resort running on slush for a final 4-5 days.

    Positive thinking like miracles is useless when it comes to influencing the atmosphere. It's either going to hang in there for a few more weeks of winter or it's gonna be a short sharp August before it all falls in a heap. I know when I'll be flogging the VMs out, if it works out that we are riding a meter of slush in mid Sept - then all is good.
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great input. Love your work mate.
     
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  42. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    Coin toss really.

    Bom Quote

    Decreased alpine snow depths
    El Niño years (as well as positive IOD years) tend to have lower snow depths in Australia's alpine regions. On average, the peak snow depth measured at Spencer's Creek is 35 cm lower during El Niño years, and the season length (i.e. the period of time with snow depths greater than 100 cm) is 2.5 weeks shorter. The four lowest peak snow depths on record were all measured during El Niño years; notably, snow depths never reached 100 cm in 1982 or 2006.

    However, El Niño does not guarantee a poor snow season. Indeed, three El Niño years (1972, 1977 and 1991) actually had well-above-average peak snow depths. Cooler night-time temperatures and lower rainfall during El Niño years can often mean that the snow which does fall is retained and can aid artificial snowmaking which many resorts use to supplement the natural snow they receive.
     
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  43. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep in a perverse way. These drought years make for great seasons. 2018 was classic. Small fronts delivering regular top up on an early solid base. Then almost no rain all season. 2019 is tracking a similar weather pattern with only a couple of pissy rain events. 30 mm given what so often happens is water off a ducks back. So lots more noise yet.
     
  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic. Date range predictions only.
     
  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ECMWF Rapid 18z Glass half full.
     
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  46. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still looks like 10-25cm this morning IMO (for 23rd and 24th event)
     
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  47. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    Is there a thread for seasonal predictions type chat?
     
  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Winters Snowed in BBQ thread under Alpine And Southern
     
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  49. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    Off topic, dont take the topic literally the dig was @ me;)
     
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  50. Tweekin

    Tweekin One of Us

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    Any updates this evening ?