Predictions 22-26th July - The Neg AAO tips it's hat to SE Aus

Kletterer

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Yep. That SWJS wants to flex its muscles- Stay north you rotten sod
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Wavey

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That's a pretty big difference between EC and CMC. -27 at 500mb is nothing to write home about, but -32 is quite cold. GFS is approximately in the middle of the two, with the cold pool slipping just south of the NSW Alpine areas. CMC seems a little too optimistic compared to the other models IMO. Hopefully we see a general consensus to the models moving that cold pool northwards but I'm not expecting it.

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Wavey

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I'm looking at what appears to be the exact same CMC model run as posted above (ie. 00z, +138h), but the temps look completely different on BSCH stormcast?

24.7.19 cmc.JPG
 

Hermon

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AAO is heading in the wrong direction again. Latest GFS now looks more like a clipper. Next!
 

Snowmaker7

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GFS going for up to 10cm on Sunday night for all major VIC and NSW resorts (I know its not within the date range but just thought it was worth noting). Odd little inversion going on with lower level temps Sunday afternoon into Monday with 925hpa temps down to 2C. Should be cold enough for village level Thredbo. Considering the models as of 2 days ago were going for 850 temps of 7-9C for this period, its much better than what could have been. CMC saying around 5-10cm and EC going for around 5cm
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POW Hungry

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Downgrades have always been on the menu for this range as per post #16, given the fighting chance against unsupportive AAO+ trend.
Alas, a week on, we still have a system. We'll take 10-25cm on any given Sunday at this point in the season.
EC supports better falls on the 12Z run this morning.
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Waiting on the next frames to load GFS, looks on track so far.
gfs-shemi-t700-3786000.png
 

Jellybeans

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apologies....but a newbie to all these reports......heading down on Sunday.....so we looking at some decent falls around the 23rd?
15-25cm IMO based off those GFS runs, and EC this morning.
Those vorticity plots that @Jwintermix shows, demonstrate intense snowfalls as those vort bands pass.

It’s certainly looking colder than EC 12z. With 534 lines deep into the interior, snow levels down to 600-700m in Victoria.
 

Kletterer

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GFS looks quite reasonable actualy. There is good upper level Divergence and accompanying Ascent 700 to 400 hPa where the embedded trough is visible on this plot. Good vort as mentioned.
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rocketboy

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Not sure that's a given looking at the unreliability and accuracy of the forecast models of late....

aao.sprd2.gif

That's a wrap.

Maybe a final burst mid sept. hopefully it doesn't warm up too much before then.

Unless something weird happens next weeks there is a near zero chance there will a season extension this year.

At this rate, we will be lucky to have the carpet running on the October LWE.
 
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Reetro

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That's a wrap.

Maybe a final burst mid sept. hopefully it doesn't warm up too much before then.

Unless something weird happens next weeks there is a near zero chance there will a season extension this year.

At this rate, we will be lucky to have the carpet running on the October LWE.
Going to be 240++ at Spencers ..
 
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Kino

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That's a wrap.

Maybe a final burst mid sept. hopefully it doesn't warm up too much before then.

Unless something weird happens next weeks there is a near zero chance there will a season extension this year.

At this rate, we will be lucky to have the carpet running on the October LWE.

And here I was thinking only Weatherzone had them....seems they’re here too...
 
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POW Hungry

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That's a wrap.

Maybe a final burst mid sept. hopefully it doesn't warm up too much before then.

Unless something weird happens next weeks there is a near zero chance there will a season extension this year.

At this rate, we will be lucky to have the carpet running on the October LWE.
Yep. Pack it up.
Close the lifts and better luck next year.:rolleyes:
 

Bendalong+

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That's a wrap.

Maybe a final burst mid sept. hopefully it doesn't warm up too much before then.

Unless something weird happens next weeks there is a near zero chance there will a season extension this year.

At this rate, we will be lucky to have the carpet running on the October LWE.
Thats a bit neg so early, you got something else on?
 
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jonathanc

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You obviously don’t know @rocketboy ;) He was calling peak season depth at the end of may, before the season had even started:D Definitely a glass half empty kind of guy. However, sometimes the glass really is half empty;)
He's called peak depth after every system for the last three seasons... but it's been a highly effective reverse psychology technique so we should all be thanking him LOL
 

rocketboy

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This specific thread is partly about the AAO cycle. According to the latest forecast it's now closing the door hard on the AAO having any positive influence in the coming weeks. So yer that's a wrap on the AAO this month.

Next neg downswing is apx early to mid Sept based on the last few cycles. Based on how the temps have played out for this neg cycle and the one before - it was touch and go as to which way the temps would play out. By September it could be not so pretty with temps falling short and the heavens opening up with 100 mm of rain.

Mid August is often the death knell of the aussie season. That weird warmwave that so often comes through in August could hit very hard this year. Just look at the temps we are seeing this winter outside of the mountains. It was like late Sept yesterday in Jindy. A classic low humidity night made for good snow making last night - but it sure doesn't make for good natural falls.

Hopefully, PowHungry is right and their are plenty of cold non-AAO related weather events over August. The next 10 days looks ok for some top ups. And should make for a stellar fortnight ahead of which I'll be enjoying every day of bar a couple to ditch the kids home today.

But after that it's either the abyss or just a slow decline as the pack melts away. We know how fast the snow pack goes once spring bites. Just look at the SH snow depth charts.

Snowmaking is set to run well into Sept this year as it did in 2015. They have a nice overhang in the budget from last year given snowmaking mostly stopped in early July in 2018.

As to a season extension this year - we need a ton more snow for that to happen this year. As it stands now the season will wrap up mid October NSW school hols on Oct 7. Chances of their been an extension beyond that was always quite low given the dates - but they have done such twice since 2012 - with the resort running on slush for a final 4-5 days.

Positive thinking like miracles is useless when it comes to influencing the atmosphere. It's either going to hang in there for a few more weeks of winter or it's gonna be a short sharp August before it all falls in a heap. I know when I'll be flogging the VMs out, if it works out that we are riding a meter of slush in mid Sept - then all is good.
 

POW Hungry

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This specific thread is partly about the AAO cycle. According to the latest forecast it's now closing the door hard on the AAO having any positive influence in the coming weeks. So yer that's a wrap on the AAO this month.

Next neg downswing is apx early to mid Sept based on the last few cycles. Based on how the temps have played out for this neg cycle and the one before - it was touch and go as to which way the temps would play out. By September it could be not so pretty with temps falling short and the heavens opening up with 100 mm of rain.

Mid August is often the death knell of the aussie season. That weird warmwave that so often comes through in August could hit very hard this year. Just look at the temps we are seeing this winter outside of the mountains. It was like late Sept yesterday in Jindy. A classic low humidity night made for good snow making last night - but it sure doesn't make for good natural falls.

Hopefully, PowHungry is right and their are plenty of cold non-AAO related weather events over August. The next 10 days looks ok for some top ups. And should make for a stellar fortnight ahead of which I'll be enjoying every day of bar a couple to ditch the kids home today.

But after that it's either the abyss or just a slow decline as the pack melts away. We know how fast the snow pack goes once spring bites. Just look at the SH snow depth charts.

Snowmaking is set to run well into Sept this year as it did in 2015. They have a nice overhang in the budget from last year given snowmaking mostly stopped in early July in 2018.

As to a season extension this year - we need a ton more snow for that to happen this year. As it stands now the season will wrap up mid October NSW school hols on Oct 7. Chances of their been an extension beyond that was always quite low given the dates - but they have done such twice since 2012 - with the resort running on slush for a final 4-5 days.

Positive thinking like miracles is useless when it comes to influencing the atmosphere. It's either going to hang in there for a few more weeks of winter or it's gonna be a short sharp August before it all falls in a heap. I know when I'll be flogging the VMs out, if it works out that we are riding a meter of slush in mid Sept - then all is good.
Great input. Love your work mate.
 
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Coin toss really.

Bom Quote

Decreased alpine snow depths
El Niño years (as well as positive IOD years) tend to have lower snow depths in Australia's alpine regions. On average, the peak snow depth measured at Spencer's Creek is 35 cm lower during El Niño years, and the season length (i.e. the period of time with snow depths greater than 100 cm) is 2.5 weeks shorter. The four lowest peak snow depths on record were all measured during El Niño years; notably, snow depths never reached 100 cm in 1982 or 2006.

However, El Niño does not guarantee a poor snow season. Indeed, three El Niño years (1972, 1977 and 1991) actually had well-above-average peak snow depths. Cooler night-time temperatures and lower rainfall during El Niño years can often mean that the snow which does fall is retained and can aid artificial snowmaking which many resorts use to supplement the natural snow they receive.
 

rocketboy

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Yep in a perverse way. These drought years make for great seasons. 2018 was classic. Small fronts delivering regular top up on an early solid base. Then almost no rain all season. 2019 is tracking a similar weather pattern with only a couple of pissy rain events. 30 mm given what so often happens is water off a ducks back. So lots more noise yet.
 
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