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Predictions 22-26th July - The Neg AAO tips it's hat to SE Aus

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jul 13, 2019.

  1. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Yes good stuff Rocket.. But when was the last years we went beyond Oct 7 or 8. I was there last year on Oct 8 and that was really late.. You know its late when the CEO is pulling tbars and you have no bus to smiggs
    So its a normal year. and we will get to Oct 7 or */?
     
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  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still 10-25cm IMO.

    NSW BOM less optimistic (Perisher):
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Only addition I have to offer here tonight is that EC is beginning to entertain GFS’s idea of an embedded low in the Eastern bight which looks to demonstrate the breaking wave peak on the 23rd, through the SE.
    And so is the Canuck, but more so throughBass Straight.
    It’s hallmark to moar vort and an upgrade in falls if it eventuates IMO.
    Still 10-25cm for me.
     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's not great in seasonal terms for a late finish anyway (+IOD, etc)
     
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  5. Tweekin

    Tweekin One of Us

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    Thanks guys
     
  6. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    While A day early in the current date range. Is tonights flurry forecast still good for a few mm of precip. Looks dark and gloomy on the cams this morning. If windy tmw could be a magic day on the wind blown slopes.
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    *Rain below 1600m
     
  8. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-stirling
    Ms Bunn still likes the 23rd of July for some decent snow falls. I am getting my skis packed for a day at Mt. Stirling on the 24th of July based on this prediction.
     
  9. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    remember they have a train to get that low at perisher ;)
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    23rd System tucked well south of WA, via Himawari8.
    Looks amazing, if only it had some more meridonal projection.

    GFS 18z has the embedded low passing through Bass Straight. It adds a nice touch to this system but looks a little South to play into any influence over the mainland alps.
    Tuesday 10pm:
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM calling snow to 900m on Tuesday. I just don't see that.
    Looks more like snow above 1100m to me, expect adjustments this evening IMO.
     
  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is favouring Vic. resorts for snowfall totals atm . EC not so much. EC indicating a tad more clear for Vicco than NSW with a period of warmth during Tuesday morning and turning colder again in the arvo.
     
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  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Pity this system is somewhat being mown down by the high pressure ridge coming in behind it! It’s only a small change away from being a great low level snow event for southern vic
    IMO
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS going with an upgrade on the embed, increasing duration.
    Starting to look somewhat quite a healthy drop, on this afternoon's run.
    Looking much colder, and in line with BoM's call this morning of 900m snow level. We'll see when EC checks in.
    [​IMG]
     
  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    That’s one very tight low in the Bass Strait.
    Tuesday night would not be time to set sail on the Spirit of Tasmania.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    40-50 knot winds, it echoes Sydney to Hobart 1998 with it's prog:
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Would like to see EC's 00z run before we start to get carried away, however.
     
  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not replicated on bom four day?
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not yet evident on EC (where 4-dayer is plotted from).
     
  21. gem-newsouthwales-t500-3861600.png 2019-07-21 15_16_57-GDPS_ WeatherBell Maps.png gem-newsouthwales-snow_48hr-3915600.png gem-newsouthwales-snow_120hr-4174800.png

    CMC 00z still looking ok.
     
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  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wouldn’t want to sail to Tasmania, but based on those snow progs, you might want to fly there... :D
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC's humble interest in the embeded feature. Hardly worth much at MSL, but the upper levels showing some perturbation.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM meeting me halfway with their PM bulletin going for snow to 1000m on Tuesday in Vic, and 1100m Wednesday.
    1200m for NSW on Tuesday which I think is bang on.
     
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  25. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bom see Buller gaining a touch more than Hotham too, although those temps are bit of a worry given Buller's dislike of westerlies


     
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  26. 9-km ECMWF International Surface New South Wales Snowfall.gif EC close to a foot. Maybe a tad under cooked atm.
     
  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I can see 20-35cm.

    Particularly for the VIC resorts, Falls and Hotham to take the lion’s share.
    Perisher, Thredbo all get a decent drop too.
    Buller could be marginal at times, but should be mostly snow. The backend is all Buller, so it will get it’s time.
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS (06z) not letting this one go.

    00z:

    Monday night's ASCAT pass is one to watch. If it happens it runs the risk of putting snow to 250-300m ASL on Western Tassie, and truckloads of it, in places.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Conversely, AXS-R going for some lee-side troughing Wednesday afternoon as it hits the mainland alps, but looking pretty benign.


    OCF, you little devil you...
     
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  30. I dont like to anolague because the climate on the earth is warmer now.
    This not the thread i know. If i was to suggest a anolague year 2002
    would be my best guess.

     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Touche!
    I was at Buller that season.
    It sucked.
     
  32. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    A classic example of what I mean 48 hours out.. Lets see. all goof POW.
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    10-25cm for the mainland, as suggested last week.
    If you think I am selling you lemons, click ignore under my profile.
     
  34. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wednesday be a half decent day. Cold dry boot deep on the now existing base is just about all you need.
     
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  35. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Notes from Friday' Severe Weather Intelligence Briefing between BoM, SES and EMV.

     
  36. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don’t mind if I do.
     
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  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    { Moderators note} Predictions based on vague theoretical nonsense will be deleted. This is the Satellite Data era- not the 19th Century.
     
  38. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I predict that this system will hit on Tuesday and give a very nice top up of 15 - 25 cm.
     
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  39. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    He's only havin a bit of a laff, guv.
     
  40. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller 20-35cm (potential mix and rain Inc)
    Hotham/Falls 15-30cm
    Perisher/Thredbo 15-25cm
    IMO
     
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  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Echo forecast looks reasonable on Tuesday night imo. Light rain comes in at circa 20 dBZ
     
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  42. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    A Blue bit on the ALPS

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  43. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    A little upg[​IMG] rade on the latest runs backs up this moving a
     
  44. 126746_30c80f52374059599bf1f7c802707b37.png ecmwf-aus-z500_anom-3883200 (1).png
    EPS ens L 15th R 00z 22nd EC deterministic.
     
  45. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  46. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    What do you reckon about Buller Jelly? Westerlies and marginal temps?
     
  48. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Sorry. Pic didn't embed on first post..
     
  49. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should be mostly NW winds. Westerlies late at night just before the cold front kicks in, as the BOM say. The snow will fall mostly before the MSLP front.
    Uppers sit at -23 to -26 for 500mb across the day.
    -6 to -8 for 700mb.

    We should hold for 1400m SL, will see mix at times at Wombat bottom, and certainly at Northside mid load altitude. But hopefully mostly snow, will be wetter snow later on, might see some mix/graupel/rain on the lower mountain in the evening, but not at village level. Probably won’t notice it unless you are looking for evidence.
     
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