Predictions 22-26th July - The Neg AAO tips it's hat to SE Aus

[POW Hungry]

Yeah, I think Buller (village/below) will see some marginal wintery-mix stuff by Tuesday night.

 

[Baw Baw Bear]

IMO Not looking good for Baw Baw but i am always optimistic..

 

[POW Hungry]

BoM Alpine District Forecast, with the 1100m magic number:

Tuesday 23 July
Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers. Snow level lowering to 1100 metres in the afternoon. Winds northerly 20 to 30 km/h turning northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h during the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 4 with daytime temperatures reaching between 5 and 13.

 

[Max2000]

Should be mostly NW winds. Westerlies late at night just before the cold front kicks in, as the BOM say. The snow will fall mostly before the MSLP front.
Uppers sit at -23 to -26 for 500mb across the day.
-6 to -8 for 700mb.

We should hold for 1400m SL, will see mix at times at Wombat bottom, and certainly at Northside mid load altitude. But hopefully mostly snow, will be wetter snow later on, might see some mix/graupel/rain on the lower mountain in the evening, but not at village level. Probably won’t notice it unless you are looking for evidence.

Thanks for the info! Do you think there will still be a net gain at lower Northside etc at buller?

 

[Jellybeans]

Thanks for the info! Do you think there will still be a net gain at lower Northside etc at buller?

Yes there would be. But nothing really major, probably 15-20cm with a bit of rain and mix in the new snowpack.

It will be all snow above say 1500m IMO. 1600m, maybe 1700m if we are really heading in the wrong direction, but I don’t think we will see that. The uppers and later the wind should help us out.

 

[Kletterer]

EC Rapid 06Z has a slight to mild downgrade all resorts. This plot showing the ST Jet stream is partly to blame imo.

 

[Kletterer]

GFS showing some upper Convergence/ Lower Divergence in the mix atm. Dont expect big figures imo

 

[mick chopps]

Should be mostly NW winds. Westerlies late at night just before the cold front kicks in, as the BOM say. The snow will fall mostly before the MSLP front.
Uppers sit at -23 to -26 for 500mb across the day.
-6 to -8 for 700mb.

We should hold for 1400m SL, will see mix at times at Wombat bottom, and certainly at Northside mid load altitude. But hopefully mostly snow, will be wetter snow later on, might see some mix/graupel/rain on the lower mountain in the evening, but not at village level. Probably won’t notice it unless you are looking for evidence.

Lol heard that before....

 

[Kletterer]

Next 24 hours

 

[POW Hungry]

A few flurries above 1700m for Vic mid/late morning tomorrow.
Moderate 20 knot winds.
Snow lowering to ~1600m by late afternoon.
Dusting to 1-2cm in major resorts above 1700m IMO.