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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 14, 2015.
I trust you are correct. Thank you
Better this morning IMO. On for NSW above 1600 if it stays like this.
I'm not excited - temps still look marginal & it could go either way below 1800. I don't see any joy for slopes below 1700 ATM.
I cant see any snow below 1600m before the 26th based on this mornings runs. I'll wait for the 00UTC charts though to get a better picture.
The Fallen is looking at the blue stuff around 11pm on the below chart. It's been developing over the past few runs:
No need to post charts. I concur with the current vibe.
Plenty of moisture there, just lacks the cold in-feed.
So, as Astro would have it, what is the vibe? Snow or not from this one? Don't tell me that Jane has got one wrong?
Perisher special IMO
Perisher yr no says yes
Certainly setting up as a reasonable system for NSW above 1600m. Not much joy for Vic IMO
And it begins... Have a look at that moisture pouring in
I think this will be very very good for Perisher
The most analysed system ever?
mate june 2012... was 27 pages before it even snowed
So lots for perisher and almost nothing for Hotham?
But verms really stressing me out being so srs
Verm isn't allowed to ski anymore ...
One advantage of "warmer" systems .. they can contain more precip.
This one is born of a cold heart.
Still sticking with 78cm ?
Oh hell no
40 ish -to 50ish
of norwest snot
Snot? As in wett snow?
I've seen Perisher love these systems before
Snot is good for this time of year
I'm just not convinced.
No idea what you're talking about jane. Great northerly feed.
Very serious moisture. And check the speckled cold mass being sucked in behind the low.
I'm still fence sitting. All signs say maybe. imo.
A very big MAYBE.
No sense getting excited about a system forecast to decay.
Will be some snow, but hardly anything to be overly positive about imo. Not being negative. Just realistic.
Reminds me of June 16-20 2011
A fair bit... same 500hpa temps
For every one of those there would be 2 that just petered out.
Gee who took the jam out of your doughnut.
Mind you this doesn't look lovely for Vicco IMO.
Not trying to go all AndDee, I'm just not confident this will deliver much.
Always happy to be proven wrong.
Won't deliver much in Vic. IMO
Unless Jane downgrades, I'm staying positive.
Always positive ... snow bunion in neutral, I am camping at 1200m Tuesday night, waterproof sleeping bag packed.
I'm seeing some potential for friday
as falls said
Excellent, snow is required. I am off to the Hunter friday, back sunday night , looking forward to a land of white when I return
Hope U R a seer Donza! A good dump of elephant snot is infinitely better than 1 degree warmer, and 1 degree cooler will be most welcomed indeed! I'm still fence sitting though as temps IMO are marginal.
which temps on which charts?
I can see about 15cm for hotham based on todays models.
there is still hope for more if things change.
500 hPas start cooling late Wednesday. Before then it's not much chop IMO (at least on GFS)
850's are still rather warm though. (4-5C)
Thursday 4am seems to be the sweet spot
And hangs around until late Thursday.
Yeah one uses opticast
One uses human.
Vic Bom forecast
Snow level 1700 tues and 1400 on wed
Both marginal. imo.
They will change.
This is starting to sound clairvoyance from everybody.
I wonder if Weather God Jane will be disappointed with some of her wavering disciples once this system is done.
Stay on topic.
A couple of key things to consider.
This low is cold. It starts out seriously cold . I'm not sure why people think it will warm? where is the warm air?
Its getting a huge infeed of moisture from the norwest
the 500hpa temps are favorable
looking at a 120hr chart with thickness highlighted and saying its not cold enough is a folly. look at the layers.