Predictions 22nd - 26th June System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 14, 2015.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    @The Fallen
     
  2. winter

    winter One of Us Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    I trust you are correct. Thank you
     
  3. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Better this morning IMO. On for NSW above 1600 if it stays like this.
     
  4. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm not excited - temps still look marginal & it could go either way below 1800. I don't see any joy for slopes below 1700 ATM.
     
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  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I cant see any snow below 1600m before the 26th based on this mornings runs. I'll wait for the 00UTC charts though to get a better picture.

    The Fallen is looking at the blue stuff around 11pm on the below chart. It's been developing over the past few runs:
    [​IMG]
     
  6. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    No need to post charts. I concur with the current vibe.
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    :mad: Plenty of moisture there, just lacks the cold in-feed.
     
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  8. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    So, as Astro would have it, what is the vibe? Snow or not from this one? Don't tell me that Jane has got one wrong?
     
  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Perisher special IMO
     
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  10. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher yr no says yes

    [​IMG]
     
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  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    Certainly setting up as a reasonable system for NSW above 1600m. Not much joy for Vic IMO
     
  12. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    And it begins... Have a look at that moisture pouring in
     
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I think this will be very very good for Perisher
     
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  14. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The most analysed system ever?
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Hardly!
     
  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    mate june 2012... was 27 pages before it even snowed
     
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  17. dmz

    dmz More cheeeese Gromit Ski Pass: Gold

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    So lots for perisher and almost nothing for Hotham?
     
  18. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    But verms really stressing me out being so srs
     
  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Verm isn't allowed to ski anymore ...
    hence

    One advantage of "warmer" systems .. they can contain more precip.
    This one is born of a cold heart.
     
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  20. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still sticking with 78cm ?
     
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Oh hell no
    40 ish -to 50ish
    For perisher
    of norwest snot
     
  22. sara777

    sara777 A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snot? As in wett snow?:nerd:
     
  23. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Just heavy.
    I've seen Perisher love these systems before
     
  24. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snot is good for this time of year
     
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  25. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm just not convinced.
     
  26. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    No idea what you're talking about jane. ;) Great northerly feed.

    Very serious moisture. And check the speckled cold mass being sucked in behind the low.

    I'm still fence sitting. All signs say maybe. imo.

    [​IMG]
     
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  27. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    indeed.
    A very big MAYBE.
     
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  28. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    No sense getting excited about a system forecast to decay.
    Will be some snow, but hardly anything to be overly positive about imo. Not being negative. Just realistic.
     
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  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Reminds me of June 16-20 2011

    A fair bit... same 500hpa temps
    similar pressure.
     
  30. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    For every one of those there would be 2 that just petered out.
     
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Gee who took the jam out of your doughnut.
    Mind you this doesn't look lovely for Vicco IMO.
     
  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not trying to go all AndDee, I'm just not confident this will deliver much.
    Always happy to be proven wrong.
     
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Won't deliver much in Vic. IMO
     
  34. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unless Jane downgrades, I'm staying positive.
     
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  35. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Always positive ... snow bunion in neutral, I am camping at 1200m Tuesday night, waterproof sleeping bag packed.
     
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  36. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I'm seeing some potential for friday
    as falls said
     
  37. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Excellent, snow is required. I am off to the Hunter friday, back sunday night , looking forward to a land of white when I return :thumbs::)
     
    #237 dawooduck, Jun 20, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2015
  38. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hope U R a seer Donza! A good dump of elephant snot is infinitely better than 1 degree warmer, and 1 degree cooler will be most welcomed indeed! I'm still fence sitting though as temps IMO are marginal.
     
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    which temps on which charts?
     
  40. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    I can see about 15cm for hotham based on todays models.
    there is still hope for more if things change.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    500 hPas start cooling late Wednesday. Before then it's not much chop IMO (at least on GFS)

    [​IMG]
    850's are still rather warm though. (4-5C)

    Thursday 4am seems to be the sweet spot

    [​IMG]

    And hangs around until late Thursday.
     
  42. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weatherzone.
    [​IMG]
    BOM
    [​IMG]
     
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah one uses opticast
    One uses human.
     
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  44. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  45. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Both marginal. imo.
     
  46. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    They will change.
     
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  47. HappyGirl

    HappyGirl One of Us

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    This is starting to sound clairvoyance from everybody.
     
  48. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod Ski Pass: Gold

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    I wonder if Weather God Jane will be disappointed with some of her wavering disciples once this system is done.

    :out:
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    A couple of key things to consider.
    This low is cold. It starts out seriously cold . I'm not sure why people think it will warm? where is the warm air?
    Its getting a huge infeed of moisture from the norwest
    the 500hpa temps are favorable
    looking at a 120hr chart with thickness highlighted and saying its not cold enough is a folly. look at the layers.
     
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