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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jun 14, 2015.
Why not can't lose!
I'll second LWT being junk right now.
Everything has backed off the depth of this one, except GFS which thinks the trailing cold air will get there in time for 10-15mm of moisture to make it snow. I'm not so sure, I reckon the next few runs you'll see that die off, like the other models have.
This would normally get me excited:
But knowing that's pretty much the peak now and it's going to decay, well it'll be depressing watching it all fall apart. 10pm on this chart looks better, but I still think that's only a slider.
The good news? Around the 29th the LWT looks to be moving into a better state, Gerg/Falls does this link up with the MJO entering a 'favourable' phase? From then on would be the next chance of good snow.
12 degrees and raining this afternoon as I was driving back to Perth. The temp has dropped markedly from yesterday as this system comes through. Hopefully it will still have something left by the time it gets to the east.
@janesweather, what is your take on the seemingly major down grade of this period? Are you changing your call on the slow moving cut off scenario now the high seems to ridge in ruining everything?
Front decaying in my above chart, compared to the previous run.
Grasshopper is off this one but when I look at these we might get 10 or 20.
I'm not simply wishing this to happen, but just from what I see here .
Last few days I couldn't see it cold enough on the 850 , but this one we might get some joy.
Keeping it in my simple read of things.
850 temps nearly there....
Uppers better , which is where I think Donza has been putting his money on....
IMO this one is pretty much dead in the water.
Yeah looks that way.
Perisher will get some love...
Fronts and specifically cold pools that influence Perth rarely have any relevance to snow in the Aussie Alps. If anything, it typically suggests the solid peak over Perth will be followed by it being driven South by a High on the Eastern Seaboard. Exactly what is happening on today's synoptic run...
Yes, the top 100m will get some of the 'white stuff' and look like a 'winter wonderland'
nah snowlevel will be 1600
I didn't think it all doom and gloom.
At risk of being panned too optimistic I put my thoughts in obs thread.
Have been fence sitting up till now and it came closer & into play on Access R.
The 850 layer is looking a little cooler is all that I put my 20c on.
Tho the 540 line is around about Bass Straight.
Is Mountainwatch anything to go by? Grasshopper overly pessimistic:
A northerly flow covers the Alps the next two days as a high slips into the Tasman. Some rain on Wednesday from an approaching low is now looking inevitable. The last few days I’ve been holding out some hope that the forecast freezing level might drop to allow snow, but if anything things have gone the other way in latest model data, and now we might even struggle to pick up a few snippets of snow I thought we’d get on Thursday.
Image of the day:
Too warm. Source:: BOM (vandalised by the Grasshopper)
Monday 22 June:
Fine with northerlies.
Tuesday 23 June:
Fine with northerlies, late showers.
Wednesday 24 June:
Rain, with some snow possible about the very very tops, stubbornly refusing to lower.
Thursday 25 June:
A little rain clearing.
Another front is due Friday but it too will likely be pushed south by yet another large high to the north. El Nino is giving us a good spanking right now. That’s going to take us to the end of June with no real hope of snowfall. Start pinning your hopes on the next low pressure feature around 3 July.
Here you go:
Monday June 22nd, 2015
Presented by: aussieskier
Welcome to Monday morning, only man-made cover at the resorts (nicely topped up in the cold temps over the weekend) – and not a lot to cheer about in what is headed our way.
There’s a lovely system over southern WA and the Great Australian Bight, and cold temperatures here – but the system will split.
The main low will fall southwards, slowly, moving just to the southwest of Tasmania on Wednesday. This would be great positioning if the low was developing, but it’ll be rapidly decaying in this instance. This gives us showers later today and tomorrow (mainly southern resorts). There’s the slight chance that parts of the atmosphere will stay cold enough for it to be snow, but most likely it warms up too much. If it was arriving early this morning it would be snow, but starting this afternoon is not good timing. The best we could see is 5 cm of snow early tomorrow, if the showers line up.
The other part of this system travels north and the upper level energy will produce an area of rain over New South Wales on Wednesday. The timing of this is much better. It begins late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, and should fall as snow at first. It will warm up during the day though, with rain likely – but a surge of marginally colder air moves overhead on Wednesday night and Thursday morning, letting it fall as snow again. So, this one could deliver up to 20 cm of snow above 1700 metres (plus rain), over northern resorts - and hardly anything (rain or snow) to southern resorts.
There are a lot of nice, strong fronts in the westerly belt to our south – but the next high moves in on Thursday and will do its job of blocking these from surging up to us. There’s the slight chance that one will be strong enough to push through and change this blocking pattern, but it looks like the high will win for now.
So, here was my message last week: “This has the potential to add up to a big snowfall next week (more than 50cm), but most of it above 1600 metres”. The potential was there – for a cold low with tropical moisture, followed by a series of cold fronts – but it didn’t work out this time.
Low pressure below us with a high pressure above us.
Unfortunately not good for the snow this time, but almost an excellent set up for Vic surf conditions for an extended period of not large but medium sized surf for a long period of time.
Should see a week of 4-6ft surf with N-NW winds on the surf coast.
it's even turned to crap for Tassie,
NZ on the otherhand.
NZ is rockin it at the moment. Place to be.
Our time will come.
<Off topic - DELETE!>
My forecast for the uni facebook page.
"Two fizzes this week. One is this week's potential for big snow stalling and petering out over South Australia. The other is the sound of drinks opening as we contemplate still no snow on the ground at the end of June. Looks like this weekend will another good one to get drunk and go rock climbing"
The surf also says hi.
Or go surfing
Stay on topic.
The warm water still has not broken away from the NSW south coast properly. At opening weekend, the main current broke off into an eddy around Sydney. If you look at the animation your will see that is starting to happen again, but there is still a lot of southerly warm water flowing down the coast.
If the break down continues, this front coming through is going to smash us - if not, the high will park it's butt over us and ruin our school holidays.
a chance of snow for the ben with these north westerlies tonight and this week . its still very cold here . atmosphere hasn,t warmed up by time this first front comes through this evening we could get a bit up here tonight - no good for the mainland though - highs to dominant
First clouds rolling slowly in over the range
IMO not much. Too night looks far to warm for snow over Ben.
Looked so good on the satellite. But I think the models had it right all along.
Thems the breaks.
This still has potential IMO for some decent precip numbers
It always had potential for decent precip.
Looking at the EC and GFS I wouldn't have thought so.
Although the BOM is more bullish.
Yeah was via AXS-R.
Looking at the sat picture, I wouldn't have thought so.
This was posted quite a while ago but it seems to be tracking this way and there could be a nice surprise for perisher in particular despite there being a clear consensus that there is nothing to see here .
I predict we will be able to ski Perisher tomorrow......heaps....and there will be some weather............
Moisture starts in earnest around lunchtime tomorrow. imo. And is done by Thursay lunchtime. imo.
Chart shows it mainly on NSW resorts.
Temps seem to be favorable for possible snow, sometime Thursday morning. imo. Doesn't leave a lot of moisture to fall as snow. imo.
I'm not enjoying posting this.
Yes I am with you here now Astro.
Might score a bit overnight tomoz , just looking at the same models just now.
We might be lucky with levels and how much but it won't be the season starter we where looking at last week that's a given.
So this big red bit coming into our corner of the world is what a big, fat, blocking high looks like:
Probably the grossest i've seen all year.
And at the start of September they all looked back and said, "Yeah, the season never really managed to get started."
I really cant look at the charts right now.
meh - nothing even remotely happening until next tue maybe (tas) -
It's been a good winter for surfers but not snow, the Long Wave Trough amplification appears to be happening either far west or regularly just off the east coast, the middle to the end of next week appears to be another case of the latter. Nothing is hitting the alps square on.
There is a big push of warm water coming down the northern NSW coast, and the warm water is still hanging around off Sydney. I wish the resorts had the right to delay school holidays.