Predictions 23-28th July Nor-Wester Deliverance

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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I've been in two minds about this one. It's looking like a positively-tilted, NW'ly inbounder again, but there's some snow gain in this IMO.
Varying levels of agreement (@9 days now).

If you're a devout Canadian, you'll love this one as it upgraded to the heavens overnight HERE.

Otherwise, long range models (GFS& EC) ping a good LWT signal, with perhaps some mess ahead of it (-'ve IOD tips it's hat).

To shoot from the hip, it's a "~30mm prefrontal, followed by a 30-40cm gain, 1-2-hit kinda" system IMO. But we're ages out so lets see.

EC Ensembles:
1626233813531.png


GFS Determs:
1626233840146.png
 
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Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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EC Control run was 8.2 mm Friday- 6.3 mm Sat and 11. 1 mm Sunday for Charlottes. The Funky 50 are keen on the Sunday with a Mean figure of 4.9 mm
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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EC Ensembles suggests this one trending for a slider/clipper approach.
Trailing high to take control IMO as SAM/AAO heads North.

Looking like we'll see something out of it, though.
Screen Shot 2021-07-15 at 8.19.08 am.png
 

BlueHue

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Shame about NZ if that comes to being. They'll be in fora rough few days waiting/hoping that the cold makes it on the backed.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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Snow at sea level in Portland (pretty much).

Don’t recall ever seeing anything like it, so can’t believe.

But wow, just wow
Nah, that's Geo Pot (500mb) not 1000-500mb thickness.
SW Vic/Portland region would see snow to ~650m ASL, at best.

It's the breadth of polar airmass & MSLP that are remarkable on the EC prog.
 

The Fallen

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May 7, 2015
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For posterity in austerity.
Screen Shot 2021-07-15 at 8.15.13 pm.png

I know the above is a day old but I'm thinking a big input into this is the deepening warm pool of water west of tassy which is feeding the beast.

Any solid polar outbreak over the warming water will feed a decent strengthening of a passing low. I've attached daily, weekly and monthly SST west of tassy to show the warming.

Just need the system to be cold enough to negate any Sea Surface warming influence and to maximise moisture pickup. Its the right time of year.

1626409283269.png


1626409366441.png


1626409299197.png


1626409318562.png


1626409344327.png
 
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