Predictions 23-28th July Nor-Wester Deliverance

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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EC squaring it up nicely, back on track.
I think it’s almost got this one now.
In-line with ensembles, 30-50cm event for the majors IMO.
1B65E818-C6D4-46EE-B4D6-4ACD0EA65BC2.png
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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Nov 26, 2014
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Healthy Mid level Lapse Rates 8.5 - 9 . The best of the Shear Instability pushes North of the Alps but one cant have everything.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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I wish. It's more a temperature related question. That cold air is that dry by the time it gets here it doesn't even produce cloud let alone anything else.
More a discussion in QLD Daily Chat brains trust, but Cairns still sees lower airmass influence from a polar outbreak.
Cooler & drier.
The biggest temp influence comes about through night time temps (diurnal lows) in 24-48 hours after the passing of the shortwave and depending on severity of anom cooler max temps (2-3 degrees cooler) highlighted HERE.
1626653909156.png


But being in the tropics, there's no real denotable change to thickness etc.
 

Mishka

Hard Yards
Jul 10, 2015
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Worth noting that the 06Z GFS low in Bass Strait bombs to 952 HPa over Cape Otway - not realistic IMO.

It also has 140 km/h wind gusts over Melbourne and Geelong on Sunday morning. That would literally destroy much of Victoria.

Is this the same monster system that's currently sitting below South Africa? I'm looking at its progression on Windy and it's making me a little nervous. Sure, who wouldn't like to see a dump of several feet on the Alps, but the wind predicted for SA and Vic far exceeds the stuff in early June (and that one had me without power for 2 miserable days). I'd really like to know what the gurus here think and the wind, rather than snow, as I'm pretty close to dropping the better part of a grand on a decent genny today if they concur.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Is this the same monster system that's currently sitting below South Africa? I'm looking at its progression on Windy and it's making me a little nervous. Sure, who wouldn't like to see a dump of several feet on the Alps, but the wind predicted for SA and Vic far exceeds the stuff in early June (and that one had me without power for 2 miserable days). I'd really like to know what the gurus here think and the wind, rather than snow, as I'm pretty close to dropping the better part of a grand on a decent genny today if they concur.
It's still a fair way out. Won't be able to pin down winds until a few days out out, I am afraid.
BUT there's some good agreement that winds of 30-40 knots (+gusts) will affect the coastal areas from the Bight (Ceduna) to Bass Strait.
 

Mishka

Hard Yards
Jul 10, 2015
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Early june wind event in Vic was south-east, easterlies. This is more frontal and W-SW yeah? Our trees in vic dont do easterlies that often and they cause a fair bit of destruction each time.
Cheers, that makes a lot of sense
 
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Young Angus

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Good points about the wind, would love a huge snow event but more damaging winds up around The Dandenongs wouldn't be very nice for those poor people...my sister included...at least she just had an open fire put in so she can stay warm.
 

BlueHue

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BOM indicates snow Friday but that trough on models and BOM four dayer looks a little 'wintry mix' kind of mild to me. Any expectations of snow line at this point as I'm seeing maybe 1700m odd for Friday in NSW - not sure if I'm missing something. Nice and cold after that of course whe the full blow arrives.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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BOM indicates snow Friday but that trough on models and BOM four dayer looks a little 'wintry mix' kind of mild to me. Any expectations of snow line at this point as I'm seeing maybe 1700m odd for Friday in NSW - not sure if I'm missing something. Nice and cold after that of course whe the full blow arrives.
Snow to 1500m IMO, lowering into the evening.
 

Chowder11

Part of the Furniture
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Oct 21, 2003
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Flipping backwards and forwards. If it stays the way it is, it's more of a vanilla 30-50cm event. IMO
Still a good result.

50cm+ just this weekend, another 20-30 tomorrow then another 30-50 next weekend, that's around 1.2m of snow in 10 or so days.
Sets the season up very very well.

If next weekend stays on track all the majors should be almost able to open most if not all terrain.

A few more decent top ups and it's a very good season. Another big dump and its an excellent season.
 

CarveMan

I Never Slice
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May 12, 2000
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Still a good result.

50cm+ just this weekend, another 20-30 tomorrow then another 30-50 next weekend, that's around 1.2m of snow in 10 or so days.
Sets the season up very very well.

If next weekend stays on track all the majors should be almost able to open most if not all terrain.

A few more decent top ups and it's a very good season. Another big dump and its an excellent season.
Should* get Buller to the ’everything except lower Fed / Rough Cut / Boulders and lower Wombat Bowl’ stage.

*pending Westerly or other usual Buller fuckery.
 

Phil Hart

Hard Yards
Sep 15, 2014
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oh :cry:

i can handle lockdown delaying trip to snow if there's 50cm forecast for the weekend. but not so much if there's three days and 40mm of warm precipitation after that (for Falls Creek). hopefully this run is an anomaly.. was looking fine afterwards until now.

FallsCreek.PNG
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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oh :cry:

i can handle lockdown delaying trip to snow if there's 50cm forecast for the weekend. but not so much if there's three days and 40mm of warm precipitation after that (for Falls Creek). hopefully this run is an anomaly.. was looking fine afterwards until now.

FallsCreek.PNG
I wouldn't worry too much about the back-end yet, models tend to struggle with the long range airmass behind polar fronts (tomorrow's falls have been a fine example of this, off the back of the weekend).
Still 7 days out and I expect EC will adjust.
 

Swiss

One of Us
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Jun 29, 2015
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Does Jane generate those graphs on her website from her own numbers, or are they an EC(?) output generated elsewhere?

Nice and easy to interpret for the layman.
 

CarveMan

I Never Slice
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Wally

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Oct 26, 2010
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& the one that counts...

1626693692789.png

Looks like the alpine rivers will be dropping to their usual winter levels (low)... However, this is a great thing for the spring melt and paddling season, but not good for the next few weeks for paddling.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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oh :cry:

i can handle lockdown delaying trip to snow if there's 50cm forecast for the weekend. but not so much if there's three days and 40mm of warm precipitation after that (for Falls Creek). hopefully this run is an anomaly.. was looking fine afterwards until now.

FallsCreek.PNG
This does show up on EC ensembles tonight but only looks to be a problem below the alpine (<1500m) IMO.
Something to keep an eye on.
 
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Reetro

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Sep 7, 2017
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Wow, add those numbers on the current base, add a sprinkle of upside optimism and that's 300cm+ at the beginning of August - with almost no one able to ski on it
I agree , allow for some settling .. 90 now , east 200 base at some stage by mid August
 
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