Predictions 23-28th July Nor-Wester Deliverance

[Jellybeans]

FWIW GFS looking at up to 140cm of snowfall for the MR for the next week.

Hasn’t been a major focus given the SISP potential in VIC and the major dump in the Alps, but there is snowfall forecast for the Oberon region, the Southern Tablelands, and possible snow for the NTs too.

Back on EC, another place that hasn’t got much attention is Tasmania:

50cm+ for the Cradle Mountain region.
Snow down to 200-400m for the West Coast IMO.

 

[Kletterer]

10am Mon- 10am Tues will see some nervous moments - circa 10mm of clear below 1700 mtrs- fluctuating at times imo.

 

[POW Hungry]

wanders off to look at axs-c

Yeah, you won't be disappointed.
Accum totals are waay up there to Saturday PM.

 

[Kletterer]

EC Ensembles are lit up like a Gin Parlour . You know its on when every Perturbance thrown into the data results in significant snowfall.

 

[POW Hungry]

EC Ensembles are lit up like a Gin Parlour . You know its on when every Perturbance thrown into the data results in significant snowfall.

Perisher?

 

[FourSquare04]

I cannot recall seeing such a strong LWT pattern in mid to late July for many years, it's off the hook!

 

[Chowder11]

crazy crazy stuff.

Epic times ahead

 

[FourSquare04]

Easily 150cm+ base at the majors by mid to late next week and no one from SYD or MEL able to ski it (except SCEGGS Redlands winter team) - sad times

 

[Jellybeans]

Easily 150cm+ base at the majors by mid to late next week and no one from SYD or MEL able to ski it (except SCEGGS Redlands winter team) - sad times

Hopefully MEL will be able to ski it from Weds

 

[Guthega Girl]

gin

Hopefully MEL will be able to ski it from Weds

Fingers and toes and all things crossed. Will be gutted for all the businesses in the area who'd be making bank if we aren't still locked in ..

Looks like YR.no has tightened up the r**n for Weds mm for Buller looks low at present and more snow which i saw a bit of back and forwards on this call

 

[papa-whisky]

Sorry I know it's out of the date range but; yr.no forecasting 15-20mm of precip and temps above 5deg on Saturday 31st. Worth worrying about or too far out?

 

[StashyMcStash]

Sorry I know it's out of the date range but; yr.no forecasting 15-20mm of precip and temps above 5deg on Saturday 31st. Worth worrying about or too far out?

Wrong thread, papa

 

[Jellybeans]

Sorry I know it's out of the date range but; yr.no forecasting 15-20mm of precip and temps above 5deg on Saturday 31st. Worth worrying about or too far out?

Don’t worry about it.

 

[snowblowa]

 

[snowblowa]

Complex angry low pressure cloud masses behind the first frontal band. Juicy.

 

[papa-whisky]

Wrong thread, papa

Apologies. If there is no predictions thread covering this date range, where should I post? (new to the forum )

 

[Jellybeans]

Apologies. If there is no predictions thread covering this date range, where should I post? (new to the forum )

Winter BBQ Thread

 

[BlueHue]

Apologies. If there is no predictions thread covering this date range, where should I post? (new to the forum )

https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/2nd-6th-august-in2minds.90100/#post-4762791

although they kind of all meld one into the other at the moment

 

[Kletterer]

Perisher?

Charlottes Pass.

 

[7wombathead]

Double Takes

 

[skimax]

Easily 150cm+ base at the majors by mid to late next week and no one from SYD or MEL able to ski it (except SCEGGS Redlands winter team) - sad times

Ive just joined them ... ok i failed year 11, 40 years in a row

 

[Claude Cat]

 

[Chowder11]

fun times ahead

 

[POW Hungry]

EC00z 4am Sunday for the Otways.
FL ~800m (900mb)
500mb -33°C
With 2-3mm/hour, blowing 25-35 knots.

That's snow possible to 250-300m AMSL, with flukey falls below that IMO.

 

[POW Hungry]

Interesting to see Weatherzone suggesting "Snow Level" to 800m Sunday.
Weird?!

& their summary:

A series of fronts and troughs will cross the southeast over the next few days, bringing significant snow and very strong winds. By the end of Monday, 40-80cm is possible over resorts, with another 15-30cm possible on Wednesday. Some snow should fall on each other day of the week however is likely to be much less. In total, by the end of the week resorts could have seen 60-120cm of fresh snow across the slopes.

 

[Winterwolf]

What time are we expecting it to reach the alps please? Determines if i buy a ticket tomorrow or not.

 

[doogasnow]

Bom still calling snow to 500m so still steady as she goes there

 

[Mishka]

EC00z 4am Sunday for the Otways.
FL ~800m (900mb)
500mb -33°C
With 2-3mm/hour, blowing 25-35 knots.

That's snow possible to 250-300m AMSL, with flukey falls below that IMO.

It sounds like it won't take too much of an extra swing to see snow in the Melbourne burbs (especially where I am at 135m). If that happens I'm definitely taking the old rockhoppers out of the garage and getting some lockdown exercise with a few runs down my street.

 

[POW Hungry]

It sounds like it won't take too much of an extra swing to see snow in the Melbourne burbs (especially where I am at 135m). If that happens I'm definitely taking the old rockhoppers out of the garage and getting some lockdown exercise with a few runs down my street.

At 1-4am if anything.
Wintery mix at best below 500m, meaning it won’t accumulate.

 

[doogasnow]

what’s the window through the strezleckis pow?

 

[Mishka]

At 1-4am if anything.
Wintery mix at best below 500m, meaning it won’t accumulate.

Awww, don't throw a wet blanket on my dream - more than happy to get up at 4 am for a Melbourne ski

 

[POW Hungry]

what’s the window through the strezleckis pow?

6am-11am Sunday, snow possible above 500m IMO.

 

[POW Hungry]

This sucker has Perisher/Thredbo/CP in it's sights from 4:30pm tomorrow , for 4-5 hours.
GFS IR Simulation, stacked to ~600mb. Watch 4-5cm per hour fall rates drop IMO.

 

[Baw Baw Bear]

I am ever the optimist but i won't hold my breath for BB .I hope the snow god proves me wrong !!!

 

[mick chopps]

I am ever the optimist but i won't hold my breath for BB .I hope the snow god proves me wrong !!!

They’ll get there’s, later than the others, but they’ll get there’s. Wet early next week like most, another decent hit mid week.

 

[Kletterer]

Baw Baw will do ok Sunday but Wed will be lacklustre .

 

[snowgum]

Interesting to see Weatherzone suggesting "Snow Level" to 800m Sunday.
Weird?!

& their summary:

I suspect the higher-level WZ forecasts are based more on NSW southern Vic.
No proof - just observations and a gut feeling. No?

It would be reasonable to assume WC choose to report on the main mountain area/ biggest skier population for their headline summary?

 

[POW Hungry]

I suspect the higher-level WZ forecasts are based more on NSW southern Vic.
No proof - just observations and a gut feeling. No?

It would be reasonable to assume WC choose to report on the main mountain area/ biggest skier population for their headline summary?

Snow to 600m in Southern districts of NSW, on Sunday.

 

[Kletterer]

Very little snow below 500 metres from what i see on EC

 

[doogasnow]

Very little snow below 500 metres from what i see on EC

U talking in general for both Nsw and vic?

 

[snowgum]

Very little snow below 500 metres from what i see on EC

Damn! Not surprised based on past decades. Tops of Dandenongs, Otways, Stretzleckis, Grampians, kinglake, Macedon and Trentham hills are most likely?

 

[Kletterer]

U talking in general for both Nsw and vic?

Yes.

 

[Kletterer]

Bear in mind its currently drizzling here in charlottes pass - hence my pessimism based on initial conditions .

 

[POW Hungry]

Purple precip figures on AXS-C for the main range to 7pm tomorrow.
Dial it back and you'll still see 60-70cm on the board...

 

[snowgum]

That's via AXSC hi-res, so it'd have to flukey but a nice photo of Mount Latrobe/Mt Wilson to the ocean would be a unique capture.

There’s heaps of hills in the 300-600m range in the Stretzleckis of South Gippsland between Foster and Traralgon - all potentially recipients of low-level snow? Interesting! Many in the far south have great exposure to cold, southern winds plus views of The Prom!

 

[Cadir]

BOM update, have never seen "Deep snow accumulation possible" before. Edit: For Perisher

 

[POW Hungry]

BOM NSW going for broke with 35-70mm chance at Thredbo & CP, which is reasonable IMO

 

[POW Hungry]

FWIW AXSC put's +100cm on the Main Range by tomorrow night.

 

[Warlock_01]

Is there a reason why Bom are being conservative for the amount of snow in Victoria?

 

[Warlock_01]