Predictions 23-28th July Nor-Wester Deliverance

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
13,142
21,816
813
Box Hill, VIC
FWIW GFS looking at up to 140cm of snowfall for the MR for the next week.
708F2FFE-E3E1-41E5-82B4-8EB3A72E2AE4.png


Hasn’t been a major focus given the SISP potential in VIC and the major dump in the Alps, but there is snowfall forecast for the Oberon region, the Southern Tablelands, and possible snow for the NTs too.

Back on EC, another place that hasn’t got much attention is Tasmania:
77668539-9987-42B8-A2BF-B91AEA45F142.png


50cm+ for the Cradle Mountain region.
Snow down to 200-400m for the West Coast IMO.
 

Guthega Girl

One of Us
Sep 6, 2004
399
364
163
37
Northcote / Daylesford
gin
Hopefully MEL will be able to ski it from Weds
Fingers and toes and all things crossed. Will be gutted for all the businesses in the area who'd be making bank if we aren't still locked in ..

Looks like YR.no has tightened up the r**n for Weds mm for Buller looks low at present and more snow which i saw a bit of back and forwards on this call

Buller 27.PNG
 
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papa-whisky

Hard Yards
May 18, 2020
5
7
53
Sorry I know it's out of the date range but; yr.no forecasting 15-20mm of precip and temps above 5deg on Saturday 31st. Worth worrying about or too far out?
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,362
37,679
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Interesting to see Weatherzone suggesting "Snow Level" to 800m Sunday.
Weird?!

& their summary:
A series of fronts and troughs will cross the southeast over the next few days, bringing significant snow and very strong winds. By the end of Monday, 40-80cm is possible over resorts, with another 15-30cm possible on Wednesday. Some snow should fall on each other day of the week however is likely to be much less. In total, by the end of the week resorts could have seen 60-120cm of fresh snow across the slopes.
 

Winterwolf

One of Us
Jun 2, 2019
143
290
163
What time are we expecting it to reach the alps please? Determines if i buy a ticket tomorrow or not.
 

Mishka

Hard Yards
Jul 10, 2015
42
98
68
EC00z 4am Sunday for the Otways.
FL ~800m (900mb)
500mb -33°C
With 2-3mm/hour, blowing 25-35 knots.

That's snow possible to 250-300m AMSL, with flukey falls below that IMO.
It sounds like it won't take too much of an extra swing to see snow in the Melbourne burbs (especially where I am at 135m). If that happens I'm definitely taking the old rockhoppers out of the garage and getting some lockdown exercise with a few runs down my street.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,362
37,679
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
It sounds like it won't take too much of an extra swing to see snow in the Melbourne burbs (especially where I am at 135m). If that happens I'm definitely taking the old rockhoppers out of the garage and getting some lockdown exercise with a few runs down my street.
At 1-4am if anything.
Wintery mix at best below 500m, meaning it won’t accumulate.
 

snowgum

A Local
Ski Pass
May 4, 1999
6,166
4,701
563
55
vic
Interesting to see Weatherzone suggesting "Snow Level" to 800m Sunday.
Weird?!

& their summary:
I suspect the higher-level WZ forecasts are based more on NSW southern Vic.
No proof - just observations and a gut feeling. No?

It would be reasonable to assume WC choose to report on the main mountain area/ biggest skier population for their headline summary?
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,362
37,679
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
I suspect the higher-level WZ forecasts are based more on NSW southern Vic.
No proof - just observations and a gut feeling. No?

It would be reasonable to assume WC choose to report on the main mountain area/ biggest skier population for their headline summary?
Snow to 600m in Southern districts of NSW, on Sunday.
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Nov 26, 2014
22,538
26,979
1,063
Canberra
Bear in mind its currently drizzling here in charlottes pass - hence my pessimism based on initial conditions .
 

snowgum

A Local
Ski Pass
May 4, 1999
6,166
4,701
563
55
vic
That's via AXSC hi-res, so it'd have to flukey but a nice photo of Mount Latrobe/Mt Wilson to the ocean would be a unique capture.
16F7939A-AFD5-482F-A8A6-664FC4F2A03F.png
B753DCB2-89AC-4FD5-8D22-AC48E255679F.png

There’s heaps of hills in the 300-600m range in the Stretzleckis of South Gippsland between Foster and Traralgon - all potentially recipients of low-level snow? Interesting! Many in the far south have great exposure to cold, southern winds plus views of The Prom! :cool::thumbs:
 
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