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Predictions 23rd to 26th September. Widespread snow.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Donzah, Sep 18, 2020.

  1. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking more and more likely with EC 00z run looking great.
    Snow from Tues (up high) right through to Sunday.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
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    [​IMG]
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking good.
     
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  3. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is normally 1 decent snow event in September or October
     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    CMC and GFS properly onboard now too.




    Looking good for a pretty decent snowfall based off the models.
    GFS with a number of follow-ups, courtesy of the -AAO state as well.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC pulling back a little on this mornings 12z. Adding more ridge.

    However GFS now backing in a big way. Still needs to iron out som crease IMO.
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 18z offered good trend this morning.

    With some alignment between EC and GFS I am thinking 15-30cm for the majors between 23rd-26th IMO.
     
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  7. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is this 2009 Grand Final day material?
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic. Predictions only.
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will be almost a month between snow systems too.
    Very odd for Aug/Sep.
     
  10. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Victoria essentially went from May to late Aug in between systems of note.
     
  11. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could do with a top up .....

     
  12. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    00z EC says yes
     
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  13. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC00z says its on the way.


    Will be something there for Oberon again it thinks also atm.




    2 days of intermittent flurry's it thinks atm.

     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z with a textbook winter system setup.
     
  15. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM getting on board for later in the week. Only problem is next two days Sunday 20 - 45 mm precip, 6-10 degrees and Monday, 15-30 mm, 5-14 degrees. No recovering from that I fear :(. We are farked.

     
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  16. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z on Weatherzone looks quite special
     
  17. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  18. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh FFS ... would be wonderful to finish a season as it started, wandering up closed resorts earning a turn
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC, The Canadian and GFS all in agreement this morning.

    Good upgrade last night.
    25-40cm for the resorts in this date range IMO.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The heavy nature of the front on Friday Night could put heavy snow down as low as 800m in the Monaro IMO.
     
  21. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Base builder.
     
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  22. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    The 12z as other posters have suggested a wide spread cold snap engulfing the se,and ne. Snow on the nsw northern tablelands thinks ec. NZ also looking mint with heavy snowfalls .

    Could be a 100cm for some oz alpine regions if the models can hold serve and verify.


     
  23. Young Angus

    Young Angus One of Us

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    Haha FFS indeed...SEASON STARTER :D
     
  24. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    18z GFS looks like a downgrade.

    But if we take the 12z model suite, you can definitely see 40-60cm for the Main Range IMO.


    The season of a May dump, and a late September dump, the season of extremes....
     
  25. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    I'am more bullish than most some others with possible cm. When the low deepens off the coast it looks in a ideal a ally on the 12z.


     
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  26. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    18z Only goes out to 90hrs.







    Plot 2 anom above depicting the complex low system. Looks likely there could be aleast three embedded shortwaves within the system on approach.


    Gotta say the hand of faith call thread was i think was the best call of the season.




     
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Lots of cold on EC 18Z
     
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  28. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    #29 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Sep 20, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2020
  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    If it’s cold enough for Ballarat, it’s cold enough for me....


    Solid consistent good run.
    Still looks like 40-60cm IMO.
     
  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    25-40 for mine atm.
     
  32. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Resorts won't be making much/any gain Tuesday & Wednesday IMO.
    So that leaves us Thursday & Fri PM/Sat AM.
    Plenty of cold air but there's a fair bit lacking; hook, duration, trough and lack of backup through Saturday.


    Anyone care to share their insight into falls exceeding 45-50cm?
    I am seeing coldest air through Western Vic and plenty of moisture/depth sliding through Bass Strait
     
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  34. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    This one looks as weird as the big wet tree breaker earlier in the season only .... warmer
     
  35. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00Z EC is a pay for view event on this one


    First low pressure 989mb moving east







    Yeah i will go more than 50 on the run. Hallmarks of a breaking atmospheric wave on the run. If the model keeps rolling as is easy 50.
     
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  36. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Quite incredibe
    00z had elements of a cutoff upper low
    12z keeps it anchored . Beautiful hook over the alps.
     
  37. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS has the low further west ..more ideal.. Canucks are Eurovision
    However beggars can't be choosers
     
  38. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    So my questions: do current models show a) enough cold built into this system and b) enough precipitation of the right sort? And do they agree?!

    Disclaimer: this has been a weird season :cool:
     
  39. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its a typical higher end mid winter type system for temps.
    Snow levels IMO
    Tuesday 1600
    Wed- 1100
    Thurs- 1200
    Fri- 900
    Saturday - 1000

    Its also high in precip numbers . Plenty of yellow and brown on the WZ charts (20mm-40mm) 24 hr periods

    Yes. They pretty much agree
     
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  40. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks Donzah :thumbs:
     
  41. Kash

    Kash One of Us

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    I said the same thing on PSR. The eternal pessimists on there are going to hate it if/when i'm proven right but this storm is indeed looking decent....
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, not seeing snow to those sort of levels tomorrow through Wednesday, myself.
     
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  43. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM are saying 1200
    GFS has a snowlevel of 1361m asl for wednesday evening
     
  44. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  45. skiXC

    skiXC Hard Yards

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    Looking at dew point on meteye for bawbaw (1562m), it's marginal/sleet/wintery mix until Friday IMO.
     
  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might get a foot Weds-Sat AM but before that i'm with POW in that I cant see much happening.
     
  47. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    WZ which I think The Age uses for its forecasts seems to think there will be a big snowfall on Friday this week.
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wednesday evening, when the cooler (dry) air arrives (6-8pm) - albeit after EC's ~20mm of 24 hour precip.
    Marginal until then IMO.


    FWIW, 5-10cm above 1600m by Thursday AM IMO.
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 1pm Wednesday.
    Notice how all the high humidity is in the lower atmos, nothing interacting with DGZ. Says to me underdeveloped 'snow' indicating marginal from ~1650m here.
    [​IMG]
     
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