Looking more and more likely with EC 00z run looking great. Snow from Tues (up high) right through to Sunday.
CMC and GFS properly onboard now too. Looking good for a pretty decent snowfall based off the models. GFS with a number of follow-ups, courtesy of the -AAO state as well.
EC pulling back a little on this mornings 12z. Adding more ridge. However GFS now backing in a big way. Still needs to iron out som crease IMO.
GFS 18z offered good trend this morning. With some alignment between EC and GFS I am thinking 15-30cm for the majors between 23rd-26th IMO.
EC00z says its on the way. Will be something there for Oberon again it thinks also atm. 2 days of intermittent flurry's it thinks atm.
BOM getting on board for later in the week. Only problem is next two days Sunday 20 - 45 mm precip, 6-10 degrees and Monday, 15-30 mm, 5-14 degrees. No recovering from that I fear . We are farked.
Oh FFS ... would be wonderful to finish a season as it started, wandering up closed resorts earning a turn
EC, The Canadian and GFS all in agreement this morning. Good upgrade last night. 25-40cm for the resorts in this date range IMO.
The heavy nature of the front on Friday Night could put heavy snow down as low as 800m in the Monaro IMO.
The 12z as other posters have suggested a wide spread cold snap engulfing the se,and ne. Snow on the nsw northern tablelands thinks ec. NZ also looking mint with heavy snowfalls . Could be a 100cm for some oz alpine regions if the models can hold serve and verify.
18z GFS looks like a downgrade. But if we take the 12z model suite, you can definitely see 40-60cm for the Main Range IMO. The season of a May dump, and a late September dump, the season of extremes....
I'am more bullish than most some others with possible cm. When the low deepens off the coast it looks in a ideal a ally on the 12z.
Ms. Bunn's computer says YES NEXT 7 DAYS Mt Buller: 31cm Mt Hotham: 31cm Falls Creek: 28cm Mt Baw Baw: 36cm Perisher: 40cm Thredbo: 44cm Charlotte Pass: 66cm Selwyn: 28cm Lake Mountain: 26cm Mt Stirling: 33cm Ben Lomond: 4cm Mt Mawson: 10cm
18z Only goes out to 90hrs. Plot 2 anom above depicting the complex low system. Looks likely there could be aleast three embedded shortwaves within the system on approach. Gotta say the hand of faith call thread was i think was the best call of the season.
If it’s cold enough for Ballarat, it’s cold enough for me.... Solid consistent good run. Still looks like 40-60cm IMO.
Resorts won't be making much/any gain Tuesday & Wednesday IMO. So that leaves us Thursday & Fri PM/Sat AM. Plenty of cold air but there's a fair bit lacking; hook, duration, trough and lack of backup through Saturday. Anyone care to share their insight into falls exceeding 45-50cm? I am seeing coldest air through Western Vic and plenty of moisture/depth sliding through Bass Strait
00Z EC is a pay for view event on this one First low pressure 989mb moving east Yeah i will go more than 50 on the run. Hallmarks of a breaking atmospheric wave on the run. If the model keeps rolling as is easy 50.
Quite incredibe 00z had elements of a cutoff upper low 12z keeps it anchored . Beautiful hook over the alps.
So my questions: do current models show a) enough cold built into this system and b) enough precipitation of the right sort? And do they agree?! Disclaimer: this has been a weird season
Its a typical higher end mid winter type system for temps. Snow levels IMO Tuesday 1600 Wed- 1100 Thurs- 1200 Fri- 900 Saturday - 1000 Its also high in precip numbers . Plenty of yellow and brown on the WZ charts (20mm-40mm) 24 hr periods Yes. They pretty much agree
I said the same thing on PSR. The eternal pessimists on there are going to hate it if/when i'm proven right but this storm is indeed looking decent....
Ms Bunn's Modelling is still backing this weather system and holding onto the snow levels predicted. Interesting. It reminds of the one that arrived in May 2020. NEXT 7 DAYS Mt Buller: 51cm Mt Hotham: 40cm Falls Creek: 35cm Mt Baw Baw: 28cm Perisher: 52cm Thredbo: 54cm Charlotte Pass: 72cm Selwyn: 32cm Lake Mountain: 35cm Mt Stirling: 49cm Ben Lomond: 10cm Mt Mawson: 17cm
WZ which I think The Age uses for its forecasts seems to think there will be a big snowfall on Friday this week.
Wednesday evening, when the cooler (dry) air arrives (6-8pm) - albeit after EC's ~20mm of 24 hour precip. Marginal until then IMO. FWIW, 5-10cm above 1600m by Thursday AM IMO.
GFS 1pm Wednesday. Notice how all the high humidity is in the lower atmos, nothing interacting with DGZ. Says to me underdeveloped 'snow' indicating marginal from ~1650m here.
