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Predictions 23rd to 26th September. Widespread snow.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Donzah, Sep 18, 2020.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    From my POV, it looks like

    5-15cm on Weds afternoon to Thursday
    25-40cm on Friday
    5-10cm on Saturday.

    So what 35-65cm, with half a metre being a pretty good call IMO.
    The big day is going to be Friday, as it has all the real power behind it.


    Snow in weird places as well


    Otways and Strzeleckis, etc.
     
  2. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM at the moment giving possible snow levels in the ACT of 1700 Tues, 1300 Wed, and 1200 Thur, no level yet for the money day. Looking interesting.
     
    JM72 likes this.
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow down 700/800m for Main range & ACT respectively by Saturday early AM IMO.
     
  4. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Yep, a cold one!
     
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  5. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do a good enough job of it and you might be lucky enough to be booted outLOL
     
  6. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Am up in Katoomba this weekend. What’s the chance of a white Saturday morning?
     
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  7. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  8. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Looks decent.
     
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  9. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    snow to about 500m going off that chart jb?
     
  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah hanging around 600m for Strzeleckis.
     
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  11. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  12. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Donzah ......

    Any chance of an obs thread for this one you kicked off? Starting today in lieu of the 23rd?

    Looks like the first early round comes in this afternoon with the BOM suggesting a mixed bag of weather from tomorrow......

    Can see storm clouds gradually building to the South and over the mountains.


     
  13. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Canuck 12z was about 70cm max for NSW for the event.
     
  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS = a rather nice bit of Cyclonic Vort on Friday arvo.
     

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  15. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Slight upgrade on 00z EC
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice colder air shot through Western Vic. Looks cyc induced when you compare run to run.
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will be interesting what the scands say this evening
    Their 11am update was a upgrade on the earlier one...
     
    SMSkier and rocketboy like this.
  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC looks nice.
     
  19. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM getting keen as well..
     
  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Snowline porn. Last frames are 3 hourly
     
  21. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Canuck 00z upto 80cm total up until 27th. (NSW)





    Pretty much = to the usually more accurate kuchera.
     
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Season starter. Oh wait ...

    :out:
     
  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC --- 1 am Wed looks nice and cool . Might have to bump up the figures from my last guess.
     
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  24. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    EC 00z has downgraded totals from 12z.
     
  25. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    MetEye showing 0° / 5° C and snow showers here on Sat (950–1,000 m AMSL). A lot more seasonable than the earlier half of this sorry month.

    [​IMG]
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    WZ copying me 25-40cm notes.;)
     
  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday is coming in like that fly kick to the head.
     
  28. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  29. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    From late Friday into Saturday. Central tablelands areas will likely get some snow. Most of you already know just for anyone who dont. Boms model thinking.






     
    #79 stormkite2000, Sep 21, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2020
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  30. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic!

    (Date range...)
     
  31. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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  32. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice upgrade this morning
     
  33. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC/Canuck 12z's nsw.







    EC roughly 21 inches max

    ................................................................................................................................................










    Canuck 2 foot max on the run atm.
     
    #83 stormkite2000, Sep 22, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2020
  34. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  35. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  36. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    I could never understand the look-away 4 day rule. I like to stay updated. Being able to prepare for the weather that's on the table and make the correct choices if i'm planing to be out in it.

    But each to their own i guess.

    Dynamic....... not static Mr T.

     
  37. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    ec 18Z Only gets out to 90hrs the max @ that point of time is 43cm. As you can see its not even over with a possible foot already on the table.




     

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  38. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    The 4 day rule is something that I picked up here. I also check the conditions the night before for skiing and /or surfing.
     
    #89 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Sep 22, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2020
  39. derider

    derider Early Days

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    What is the 4 day rule?
     
  40. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-C has snow at Hotham 7pm tonight ... a couple of hours later in NSW
     
  41. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    General perception that models are fairly accurate within four days.
     
  42. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's canon, derived from the Greek κανονικός, kanonikós, "relating to a rule".
     
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  43. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC has a thickness of 5280 over the alps and ACT friday evening. That cold pool then pushes towards crookwell and the OP .
    Snow overnight Friday for a decent swath of the ST and CT's IMO
     
  44. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    My rough rule of thumb
    5280 – 600m
    5340 – 1000m
    5400 – 1400m
     
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  45. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Same
     
  46. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS pushing the 540 dam thickness line with snow up to the NSW New England. Note as per above posts dam = decameters, therefore 540 dam = 5400 m 1000 to 500 mb thickness. The 534 dam line is not far behind.
     
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  47. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC - 4pm Friday.
    Upper level cold pool and associated low lays west of the alps..
    Maintains a strong SW flow and hooks over the NSW alps
    Surface low just starts to spin off the NSW coast.
     
  48. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    :eek::eek::eek: @ 2200 hrs Friday