Ya will fluctuate until tomorrow eve. IMO 5 MAYBE 10, by Thursday night. Still convinced 25-40cm in the resorts by Saturday arvo.
00z ec Roughly @ 20 inch max full duration on the run. Both max for nsw. EC is well known for a moisture bias (lower). Just something to ponder over. Canuck consistently maxing upto 2feet for the duration.
Yep im staying with that amount also. Dew points Wed could be lacking and slightly lower than models show imo. Thurs mixing ratios are ok but not super impressive. Friday looks sweet though.
Mt Vic / Mt Boyce should see flakage. Those plots generaly miss the topography of the Blueys for some reason.
Did someone say its going to be windy ? IDV21037 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST Severe Weather Warning for DAMAGING WINDS For people in West and South Gippsland and parts of Central, East Gippsland, North Central and North East Forecast Districts. Issued at 4:38 pm Tuesday, 22 September 2020. SQUALLY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN AND MOUNTAIN VICTORIA TODAY Weather Situation: A cold front will continue to cross eastern Victoria this evening. DAMAGING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 to 100 km/h about elevated areas (above 1200m) of the warning area. DAMAGING SQUALLY WINDS averaging 45 to 65 km/h with peak squalls to 100 km/h are possible about remaining parts of the warning area with the passage of the front or associated with showers and thunderstorms. Winds will moderate below warning threshold within a few hours of the passage of the cold front, including across the remainder of the metropolitan area over the next hour or two, however winds will only gradually ease across Alpine areas (above 1200 metres) during Wednesday morning. Locations which may be affected include Melbourne, Wonthaggi, Bacchus Marsh, Morwell, Traralgon and Moe. Severe weather is no longer occurring in the South West and Wimmera districts and the warning for these districts is CANCELLED. Strongest wind gusts recorded so far today have been 98 km/h at Mount William at 12:18pm 96 km/h at Mount Gellibrand at 3:09pm 94 km/h at Gelantipy at 1:13pm 91 km/h at Mount Hotham at 1:04pm and at Omeo at 12:07pm 89 km/h at Cape Otway at 1:55pm 87 km/h at Wilsons Promontory at 3:02pm and at Melbourne Airport at 4:22pm 85 km/h at Aireys Inlet at 12:05pm
EC00z was @997mb when going over the alps. Canuck00z looked a tad lower. Not like those v/weak mb low pressure systems we saw for most of the season over terra firma.
TWC has –1° / 4° C with likely snow showers for here on Fri. Even Tumbarumba has possible snow/sleet forecast, so potentially a ~ 650 m snow line.
Observations from trip over Hotham to Dinner Plain Tuesday 22nd 15C through central Vic and right through Ovens valley this afternoon. Dropped to 11C in rain shower at Porepunkah but back to 14C in Bright. 0 degrees at 1800m through Mt Hotham at 5:30pm. Not much precipitation at that time. Looked like dusting of wet snow on the ground beside road above 1800m but actually may have been more like hail. Had seen what looked like a little snow on ~2 vehicles coming back down the mountain. Reports of wintry hail at Falls during the afternoon also. Dinner Plain (1580m) 6-8:00pm: Limited precipitation, mostly wet. Wintry hail with some snow pellets at one point during the evening. Dinner Plain 11:00pm : Slight dusting/smattering of hail frozen together on the ground. Looking forward to watching the next few days' weather from here.
EC broadening the low through Bass. Friday looking mint. Slight temp downgrade run to run but still down to ~800m On the Monaro.
Actually one of the many ways to spell the native region. But I have fixed for the fastidious among us.
GFS 18Z thinking Friday should be ideal for a blue mountains dusting around 6pm onwards. Roads may get very slippery (black ice).
Thanks everyone for your predictions. There's been a mix of numbers thrown around from 20 to 60+. Now that we're a bit closer what are the models suggesting out of this? For NSW. YR.no saying about 28mm/cm.
Not a serious thing as yet ....................... no NSW sheep graziers warning so I cant take it seriously yet. That being the case at this stage ............. 3cm already on the ground , probably another 3 today/so far tonight .............. whats yet to come ................... 15 - 20 at best.
Met eye is calling 15-35mm Friday for Hotham/Falls/Buller, and 0-4mm Saturday. Mount Baw Baw has 8-20mm Friday followed by 5-10mm. The low end of those predictions would be pretty disappointing, the high end would give some nice skiing until tropical-like conditions return on Wednesday.
Yr.no is calling for 22cm all up for the vic resorts, followed with r@!n on Wednesday. Definitely another one for NSW (as with most of the season)
BoM have issued the 'B' work IDN21037 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST Severe Weather Warning for DAMAGING WINDS For people in parts of Snowy Mountains Forecast District. Issued at 10:10 am Thursday, 24 September 2020. VIGOROUS ALPINE WINDS TONIGHT An approaching cold front is generating vigorous northwesterly winds. This front will cross southern and western parts of New South Wales overnight and during Friday. DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 80 to 90 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 120 km/h are possible for alpine areas above 1900 metres from late Thursday night. Winds are expected to ease during Friday morning following the passage of the cold front, but will remain strong and gusty throughout Friday and Saturday. BLIZZARDS are also possible for alpine areas above 1800 metres during Thursday night and Friday morning. The NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service recommends that back country travel be postponed until conditions improve. Locations which may be affected include Perisher Valley, Charlotte Pass and Thredbo.
