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Predictions 23rd to 26th September. Widespread snow.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Donzah, Sep 18, 2020.

  1. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z ICON


    much the same a cold polar complex low. icon-all-aus-z500_anom-1600732800-1600732800-1601078400-80.gif
     
  2. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    That's a deep south fetch!
     
  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 00Z suggesting 10-15 cm for the Main Range by 7am Thursday.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    *Above 1600m IMO.
     
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  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    1800 perhaps imo.
     
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  6. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Any evaporative cooling for this one pow?
     
  7. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom for Thredbo
     
  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 00Z totals
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday falls might be but it’s colder than a witches tit by then.
    Tonight through Thursday... nah
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ya will fluctuate until tomorrow eve.
    IMO 5 MAYBE 10, by Thursday night.

    Still convinced 25-40cm in the resorts by Saturday arvo.
     
  11. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z ec Roughly @ 20 inch max full duration on the run.



    Both max for nsw. EC is well known for a moisture bias (lower). Just something to ponder over.


    Canuck consistently maxing upto 2feet for the duration.

     
    #111 stormkite2000, Sep 22, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2020
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  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Yep im staying with that amount also. Dew points Wed could be lacking and slightly lower than models show imo. Thurs mixing ratios are ok but not super impressive. Friday looks sweet though.
     
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  14. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    nice upgrade on EC for NSW
     
  15. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just not penetrating to Katoomba by the looks of things. Boooo.
     
  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    New snow on the ground in settled form.
     
  17. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Tend to think the blue mountains will get a dusting in the usual places Friday nightish.
     
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  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Mt Vic / Mt Boyce should see flakage. Those plots generaly miss the topography of the Blueys for some reason.
     
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  19. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Did someone say its going to be windy ?

    IDV21037
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    Severe Weather Warning
    for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in West and South Gippsland and parts of Central, East Gippsland, North Central and North East Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 4:38 pm Tuesday, 22 September 2020.

    SQUALLY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN AND MOUNTAIN VICTORIA TODAY


    Weather Situation: A cold front will continue to cross eastern Victoria this evening.

    DAMAGING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 to 100 km/h about elevated areas (above 1200m) of the warning area.

    DAMAGING SQUALLY WINDS averaging 45 to 65 km/h with peak squalls to 100 km/h are possible about remaining parts of the warning area with the passage of the front or associated with showers and thunderstorms.

    Winds will moderate below warning threshold within a few hours of the passage of the cold front, including across the remainder of the metropolitan area over the next hour or two, however winds will only gradually ease across Alpine areas (above 1200 metres) during Wednesday morning.

    Locations which may be affected include Melbourne, Wonthaggi, Bacchus Marsh, Morwell, Traralgon and Moe.

    Severe weather is no longer occurring in the South West and Wimmera districts and the warning for these districts is CANCELLED.

    Strongest wind gusts recorded so far today have been

    98 km/h at Mount William at 12:18pm

    96 km/h at Mount Gellibrand at 3:09pm

    94 km/h at Gelantipy at 1:13pm

    91 km/h at Mount Hotham at 1:04pm and at Omeo at 12:07pm

    89 km/h at Cape Otway at 1:55pm

    87 km/h at Wilsons Promontory at 3:02pm and at Melbourne Airport at 4:22pm

    85 km/h at Aireys Inlet at 12:05pm
     
  20. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC00z was @997mb when going over the alps.


    Canuck00z
    looked a tad lower.





    Not like those v/weak mb low pressure systems we saw for most of the season over terra firma.
     
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  21. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    TWC has –1° / 4° C with likely snow showers for here on Fri.

    [​IMG]

    Even Tumbarumba has possible snow/sleet forecast, so potentially a ~ 650 m snow line.
     
    Westerly Wind and Homer like this.
  22. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Glen innes northern tablelands will taste the chill.
     
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  23. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC rendered on WZ is a thing of beauty.
    Wee tear shed
     
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  24. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Mount Hotham Forecast


     
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  25. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z showing the lil breakaway vort that goes over the tablelands.
    [​IMG]
     
  26. Phil Hart

    Phil Hart Hard Yards

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    Observations from trip over Hotham to Dinner Plain Tuesday 22nd

    15C through central Vic and right through Ovens valley this afternoon. Dropped to 11C in rain shower at Porepunkah but back to 14C in Bright.

    0 degrees at 1800m through Mt Hotham at 5:30pm. Not much precipitation at that time. Looked like dusting of wet snow on the ground beside road above 1800m but actually may have been more like hail. Had seen what looked like a little snow on ~2 vehicles coming back down the mountain. Reports of wintry hail at Falls during the afternoon also.

    Dinner Plain (1580m) 6-8:00pm: Limited precipitation, mostly wet. Wintry hail with some snow pellets at one point during the evening.

    Dinner Plain 11:00pm : Slight dusting/smattering of hail frozen together on the ground.

    Looking forward to watching the next few days' weather from here.
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC broadening the low through Bass. Friday looking mint.
    Slight temp downgrade run to run but still down to ~800m On the Monaro.
     
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  28. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Monaro ;p
     
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  29. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Decent predictor that...

    :)
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Actually one of the many ways to spell the native region. But I have fixed for the fastidious among us.
    ;)
     
  31. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Monaroo is closer to the Indigenous pronunciation.
     
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  32. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS 18Z thinking Friday should be ideal for a blue mountains dusting around 6pm onwards. Roads may get very slippery (black ice).
     
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 18Z Ensembles and probabilities as the Assimilation process evolves closer to the main event.
     
  34. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice MAX temps the rest of the week.

     
  35. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    As the anom fills in over the se it kicks up the dust ahead of it into qld.
     
    #135 stormkite2000, Sep 23, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2020
  36. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  37. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Thanks everyone for your predictions. There's been a mix of numbers thrown around from 20 to 60+.

    Now that we're a bit closer what are the models suggesting out of this? For NSW.

    YR.no saying about 28mm/cm.
     
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  38. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Not a serious thing as yet ....................... no NSW sheep graziers warning so I cant take it seriously yet.
    That being the case at this stage ............. 3cm already on the ground , probably another 3 today/so far tonight .............. whats yet to come ................... 15 - 20 at best.
     
  39. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    C’mon, Sheep Graziers Alert will be for Friday/Saturday.
    Be alert but not alarmed.
     
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  40. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Certainly so as I said ................. not a serious thing as YET :thumbs:
     
  41. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    18z Icon
     
    #141 stormkite2000, Sep 24, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 24, 2020
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  42. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sheep Frazier alert issued at 6:00am this morning.
     
  43. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'll alert Kelsey Grammer
     
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  44. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    LOL ... my phone dictionary has lost the plot.
     
  45. skiXC

    skiXC Hard Yards

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    Met eye is calling 15-35mm Friday for Hotham/Falls/Buller, and 0-4mm Saturday.

    Mount Baw Baw has 8-20mm Friday followed by 5-10mm.

    The low end of those predictions would be pretty disappointing, the high end would give some nice skiing until tropical-like conditions return on Wednesday.
     
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  46. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Look at that sat pic.
     
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  47. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Very slow scratchy conditions in Vicco as there will be no base.
     
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  48. skiXC

    skiXC Hard Yards

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    Yr.no is calling for 22cm all up for the vic resorts, followed with r@!n on Wednesday.

    Definitely another one for NSW (as with most of the season)
     
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  49. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM have issued the 'B' work :)

    IDN21037
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    Severe Weather Warning
    for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in parts of Snowy Mountains Forecast District.

    Issued at 10:10 am Thursday, 24 September 2020.

    VIGOROUS ALPINE WINDS TONIGHT


    An approaching cold front is generating vigorous northwesterly winds. This front will cross southern and western parts of New South Wales overnight and during Friday.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 80 to 90 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 120 km/h are possible for alpine areas above 1900 metres from late Thursday night.

    Winds are expected to ease during Friday morning following the passage of the cold front, but will remain strong and gusty throughout Friday and Saturday.

    BLIZZARDS are also possible for alpine areas above 1800 metres during Thursday night and Friday morning.

    The NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service recommends that back country travel be postponed until conditions improve.

    Locations which may be affected include Perisher Valley, Charlotte Pass and Thredbo.
     
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  50. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    11.44 am bom updated!