Predictions 24-28 September Last Hurrah

[POW Hungry]

All major models are signalling a deep polar outbreak for this date range.
Prefrontal appears unavoidable as it draws in an inland heat trough ahead of the system.

Dates are slipping quite a bit but look likely to impact the alps from the 24th.
Good solid hook on it.
Low level snow likely.
If it verifies it should easily give us new SC peak depth.

LWT says yes.
Swell alert for Vic (and WA, if the IO cut off low on 21st eventuates).

GFS

EC

 

[W0nkey D0nkey]

I love this winter. Keep it comen huey.

 

[POW Hungry]

MJO also fires up in this date range for the Aus continent.

 

[Hamburglar]

Just in time for school holidays!

 

[Donza]

Tonka is wearing big boy pants on EC.
Going to be bloody warm n windy beforehand though

 

[Jellybeans]

That's 86.8cm over the 24-26 Sept period.
Ridiculous totals for Late September normally, but this year anything can happen!
Gotta wait for it to verify though.


EC QPF for the three days.

 

[doogasnow]

Wow!!
Would be awesome if it was even half as good as progged!!
Let her rip pow, one last low level blast!!

 

[POW Hungry]

Going to be bloody warm n windy beforehand though

 

[Jellybeans]

It be spring.

 

[POW Hungry]

It be spring.

Solid anoms for spring though.

 

[j_w_x]

All major models are signalling a deep polar outbreak for this date range.
Prefrontal appears unavoidable as it draws in an inland heat trough ahead of the system.

Dates are slipping quite a bit but look likely to impact the alps from the 24th.
Good solid hook on it.
Low level snow likely.
If it verifies it should easily give us new SC peak depth.

LWT says yes.
Swell alert for Vic (and WA, if the IO cut off low on 21st eventuates).

GFS

EC

Moves into Vic roughly @midnight 24th per ec.
If the 500mb heights verify it should be a wild night and possibly
snow also along the southern highlands of nsw @25th.

 

[Donza]

979 Low on shipsterns
Not to be sneezed at

 

[POW Hungry]

GFS 18Z run has it MIA, but it is GFS and it is still +200hrs out.

 

[Snow Blowey]

Down around this period. Have a bad feeling ill be about for the warm and wet and then have to be back at work when it snows. Bugger.

 

[Donza]

GFS 18Z run has it MIA, but it is GFS and it is still +200hrs out.

Yeah just looked at it.
Either its off the reservation..or took its smart pills this morning.

 

[Adelaidometer]

979 Low on shipsterns
Not to be sneezed at

No pun intended

 

[j_w_x]

GFS looked too be trending in the same direction with the large scale anom.
Leave over too you guys now i'm super busy. And yeah that av makes me wanna
puke Donzah. Bernie banton story still rings a bell.
cheers

 

[POW Hungry]

AXS bottoming out @ 959hPa in the bight, but lacking the ridge to the West.
The wrap and comma shape tells me it's got a good string in it's tail.

 

[Undies]

How many 2ft+ storms have we had this season? Can't believe we might be looking at one more to see us out. Dare to dream!

 

[POW Hungry]

00Z GFS is flaking on it, calling it a West Oz (almost) bombing low. Looks pretty far fetched IMO.

 

[POW Hungry]

EC00z. EC doesn't seem to be giving any concessions here...
992hPa over the alps would see it as our strongest system of the season.

My skepticism at this point lies in it delivering polar air to both WA & SE Aus, something has to give here IMO.

 

[Claude Cat]

CMC is with GFS. More snow for the Stirlings.

 

[doogasnow]

Going to enjoy watching every bit of
This last roller coaster ride unfold
Over the next 7-10 days on all the models!! Really looking forward to
Which way this last hurrah falls??
Will it capitulate? Or will it steam home
And send us off with one of the best snowy blast of the season?

 

[Ramshead]

I predict the cold stuff will disappear in the Bight and it will pee rain and blow a gale for the exact 3 days I am in Thredbo from Sep 26-28 and my wife will be reminding me for the next two decades how I insisted we take the kids skiing in awful conditions when she wanted to book the NSW coast which was 27 degrees and sunny all week.

 

[POW Hungry]

BoM's sharing interest:

Sunday 24 September
Summary

Min -1
Max 1
Snow showers.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%

Alpine area
Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers or snow. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h.

 

[Infinity Dawn]

Windy showing good signs, still alot of uncertainty in the system IMO

 

[POW Hungry]

AXS going something in between. No trailing ridge which doesn't seem as logical as EC.

 

[Kletterer]

 

[POW Hungry]

Gotta be honest. GFS (06Z) looks like a dog's breakfast... It's all over the shop.

 

[Claude Cat]

Gotta be honest. GFS (06Z) looks like a dog's breakfast... It's all over the shop.

The GFS ensemble spag is all over the shot. I would disregard it .

It's fairly solid to 144h but after that it has no idea.

 

[dibl0c]

Look I've gotta work down in Tassie 23rd/24th so if we could just shift it back a day that'd be sweet, ta.

 

[Donza]

The GFS ensemble spag is all over the shot. I would disregard it .

It's fairly solid to 144h but after that it has no idea.

Looks like my mind after a night on the shiraz

 

[The Plowking]

Looks, erm.....interesting on the am synoptic runs.
What are the upper levels like.

 

[POW Hungry]

Looks like my mind after a night on the shiraz

You need to switch to a Malbec.

Things still looking ok this morning, albeit scaled back more to a spring pattern rather than a mid-winter set-up IMO.
Cold core Bass Strait low on EC could be interesting although I expect changes here.

Still looks positive for 'something' with a strong longwave due on the 25th. The limiting factor looks to be the upper level jet.

EC

 

[The Plowking]

It's all a bit too weird looking on the extended charts imo.
No confidence at all.
First time in ages it's not a fish in a barrel type system.

 

[POW Hungry]

Solid upper level low on EC's 500mb this AM

 

[POW Hungry]

It's all a bit too weird looking on the extended charts imo.
No confidence at all.
First time in ages it's not a fish in a barrel type system.

Such is the nature of the inter-seasonal model runs.

The synoptic plots lack confidence for sure, but the long wave set-up has remained staunch IMO. I am confident we'll see 'something' out of this but the prospect of a + half a metre dump is diminishing.
Rain will be a given IMO.

 

[Donza]

GFS 18z starting to hug and love EC ...

 

[POW Hungry]

GFS 18z starting to hug and love EC ...

Must be a lot of tears in that 'cause it's looking very wet for SE Aus.

 

[The Plowking]

Must be a lot of tears in that 'cause it's looking very wet for SE Aus.

It's a 'farmers' system.

 

[cookieman]

This system is looking too marginal for my liking and I predict it will be mainly wet.
Our rural farmers need it more than us.

 

[Claude Cat]

Farmers need it more than we do now.

 

[The Plowking]

Farmers need it more than we do now.

But given its a ski forum, fark them until October 8!

 

[Majikthise]

Canola crop vulnerable in days rather than weeks. ..they can have a little bit now and a bit more later...

 

[Donza]

Farmers need it more than we do now.

farmers?
you should see my effing grass.
Its like hay out there.

 

[Majikthise]

Check out @andrewmiskelly’s Tweet:

 

[Kletterer]

Looks messy on GFS. Egg shells in the souffle IMO.

 

[Donza]

*i'm not even looking at GFS

 

[Kletterer]

*i'm not even looking at GFS

NCEP had a power outage.

 

[Donza]