Predictions 24-28 September Last Hurrah

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Sep 17, 2017.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    All major models are signalling a deep polar outbreak for this date range.
    Prefrontal appears unavoidable as it draws in an inland heat trough ahead of the system.

    Dates are slipping quite a bit but look likely to impact the alps from the 24th.
    Good solid hook on it.
    Low level snow likely.
    If it verifies it should easily give us new SC peak depth.

    LWT says yes.
    Swell alert for Vic (and WA, if the IO cut off low on 21st eventuates).

    GFS


    EC
     
    #1 POW_hungry, Sep 17, 2017
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  2. W0nkey D0nkey

    W0nkey D0nkey One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I love this winter. Keep it comen huey.:):)
     
    #2 W0nkey D0nkey, Sep 17, 2017
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    MJO also fires up in this date range for the Aus continent.
     
    #3 POW_hungry, Sep 17, 2017
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  4. Hamburglar

    Hamburglar Hard Yards

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    Just in time for school holidays!
     
    #4 Hamburglar, Sep 17, 2017
  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tonka is wearing big boy pants on EC.
    Going to be bloody warm n windy beforehand though
     
    #5 Donzah, Sep 17, 2017
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  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    That's 86.8cm over the 24-26 Sept period.
    Ridiculous totals for Late September normally, but this year anything can happen!
    Gotta wait for it to verify though.


    EC QPF for the three days.
     
    #6 Jellybeans, Sep 17, 2017
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  7. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Wow!! :eek:
    Would be awesome if it was even half as good as progged!!
    Let her rip pow, one last low level blast!!
     
    #7 doogasnow, Sep 17, 2017
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
    #8 POW_hungry, Sep 17, 2017
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    It be spring.
     
    #9 Jellybeans, Sep 17, 2017
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Solid anoms for spring though.
     
    #10 POW_hungry, Sep 17, 2017
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  11. j_w_x

    j_w_x Hard Yards

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    Moves into Vic roughly @midnight 24th per ec.
    If the 500mb heights verify it should be a wild night and possibly
    snow also along the southern highlands of nsw @25th.
     
    #11 j_w_x, Sep 17, 2017
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  12. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    979 Low on shipsterns
    Not to be sneezed at
    [​IMG]
     
    #12 Donzah, Sep 17, 2017
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 18Z run has it MIA, but it is GFS and it is still +200hrs out.
     
    #13 POW_hungry, Sep 17, 2017
  14. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Down around this period. Have a bad feeling ill be about for the warm and wet and then have to be back at work when it snows. Bugger.
     
    #14 Snow Blowey, Sep 17, 2017
  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah just looked at it.
    Either its off the reservation..or took its smart pills this morning.
     
    #15 Donzah, Sep 17, 2017
  16. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer One of Us

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    No pun intended
     
    #16 Adelaidometer, Sep 17, 2017
  17. j_w_x

    j_w_x Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]

    GFS looked too be trending in the same direction with the large scale anom.
    Leave over too you guys now i'm super busy. And yeah that av makes me wanna
    puke Donzah. Bernie banton story still rings a bell.
    cheers
     
    #17 j_w_x, Sep 17, 2017
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS bottoming out @ 959hPa in the bight, but lacking the ridge to the West.
    The wrap and comma shape tells me it's got a good string in it's tail.
    [​IMG]
     
    #18 POW_hungry, Sep 17, 2017
  19. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    How many 2ft+ storms have we had this season? Can't believe we might be looking at one more to see us out. Dare to dream!
     
    #19 Undies, Sep 17, 2017
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    00Z GFS is flaking on it, calling it a West Oz (almost) bombing low. Looks pretty far fetched IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
    #20 POW_hungry, Sep 17, 2017
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC00z. EC doesn't seem to be giving any concessions here...
    992hPa over the alps would see it as our strongest system of the season.
    [​IMG]
    My skepticism at this point lies in it delivering polar air to both WA & SE Aus, something has to give here IMO.
     
    #21 POW_hungry, Sep 17, 2017
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    CMC is with GFS. More snow for the Stirlings.

    [​IMG]
     
    #22 Claude Cat, Sep 17, 2017
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  23. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Going to enjoy watching every bit of
    This last roller coaster ride unfold
    Over the next 7-10 days on all the models!! Really looking forward to
    Which way this last hurrah falls??
    Will it capitulate? Or will it steam home
    And send us off with one of the best snowy blast of the season?
     
    #23 doogasnow, Sep 17, 2017
  24. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    I predict the cold stuff will disappear in the Bight and it will pee rain and blow a gale for the exact 3 days I am in Thredbo from Sep 26-28 and my wife will be reminding me for the next two decades how I insisted we take the kids skiing in awful conditions when she wanted to book the NSW coast which was 27 degrees and sunny all week.
     
    #24 Ramshead, Sep 17, 2017
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM's sharing interest:
     
    #25 POW_hungry, Sep 17, 2017
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  26. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Windy showing good signs, still alot of uncertainty in the system IMO
     
    #26 Infinity Dawn, Sep 17, 2017
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS going something in between. No trailing ridge which doesn't seem as logical as EC.
    [​IMG]
     
    #27 POW_hungry, Sep 17, 2017
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    #28 Kletterer, Sep 17, 2017
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gotta be honest. GFS (06Z) looks like a dog's breakfast... It's all over the shop.
    [​IMG]
     
    #29 POW_hungry, Sep 17, 2017
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The GFS ensemble spag is all over the shot. I would disregard it .

    [​IMG]

    It's fairly solid to 144h but after that it has no idea.
     
    #30 Claude Cat, Sep 17, 2017
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  31. dibl0c

    dibl0c coolstorydibloc™ Ski Pass: Gold

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    #shitadelaide or #brisbogan ... classy.
    Look I've gotta work down in Tassie 23rd/24th so if we could just shift it back a day that'd be sweet, ta.
     
    #31 dibl0c, Sep 17, 2017
  32. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like my mind after a night on the shiraz
     
    #32 Donzah, Sep 17, 2017
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  33. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks, erm.....interesting on the am synoptic runs.
    What are the upper levels like.
     
    #33 The Plowking, Sep 18, 2017
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You need to switch to a Malbec.

    Things still looking ok this morning, albeit scaled back more to a spring pattern rather than a mid-winter set-up IMO.
    Cold core Bass Strait low on EC could be interesting although I expect changes here.

    Still looks positive for 'something' with a strong longwave due on the 25th. The limiting factor looks to be the upper level jet.


    EC
    [​IMG]
     
    #34 POW_hungry, Sep 18, 2017
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  35. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's all a bit too weird looking on the extended charts imo.
    No confidence at all.
    First time in ages it's not a fish in a barrel type system.
     
    #35 The Plowking, Sep 18, 2017
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Solid upper level low on EC's 500mb this AM
     
    #36 POW_hungry, Sep 18, 2017
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Such is the nature of the inter-seasonal model runs.

    The synoptic plots lack confidence for sure, but the long wave set-up has remained staunch IMO. I am confident we'll see 'something' out of this but the prospect of a + half a metre dump is diminishing.
    Rain will be a given IMO.
     
    #37 POW_hungry, Sep 18, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2017
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  38. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 18z starting to hug and love EC ...
     
    #38 Donzah, Sep 18, 2017
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Must be a lot of tears in that 'cause it's looking very wet for SE Aus.
     
    #39 POW_hungry, Sep 18, 2017
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  40. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a 'farmers' system.
     
    #40 The Plowking, Sep 18, 2017
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  41. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    This system is looking too marginal for my liking and I predict it will be mainly wet.
    Our rural farmers need it more than us.
     
    #41 cookieman, Sep 18, 2017
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Farmers need it more than we do now.
     
    #42 Claude Cat, Sep 18, 2017
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  43. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    But given its a ski forum, fark them until October 8!
     
    #43 The Plowking, Sep 18, 2017
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  44. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Canola crop vulnerable in days rather than weeks. ..they can have a little bit now and a bit more later...;)
     
    #44 Majikthise, Sep 18, 2017
  45. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    farmers?
    you should see my effing grass.
    Its like hay out there.
     
    #45 Donzah, Sep 18, 2017
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  46. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Check out @andrewmiskelly’s Tweet:
     
    #46 Majikthise, Sep 18, 2017
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  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Looks messy on GFS. Egg shells in the souffle IMO.
     
    #47 Kletterer, Sep 18, 2017
  48. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    *i'm not even looking at GFS
     
    #48 Donzah, Sep 18, 2017
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  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    NCEP had a power outage.
     
    #49 Kletterer, Sep 18, 2017
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  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
    #50 Donzah, Sep 18, 2017
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