Predictions 24-28 September Last Hurrah

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,301
44,108
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
All major models are signalling a deep polar outbreak for this date range.
Prefrontal appears unavoidable as it draws in an inland heat trough ahead of the system.

Dates are slipping quite a bit but look likely to impact the alps from the 24th.
Good solid hook on it.
Low level snow likely.
If it verifies it should easily give us new SC peak depth.

LWT says yes.
Swell alert for Vic (and WA, if the IO cut off low on 21st eventuates).

GFS
IMG_7121.PNG


EC
IMG_7120.PNG
 
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j_w_x

Hard Yards
Sep 12, 2017
56
123
33
All major models are signalling a deep polar outbreak for this date range.
Prefrontal appears unavoidable as it draws in an inland heat trough ahead of the system.

Dates are slipping quite a bit but look likely to impact the alps from the 24th.
Good solid hook on it.
Low level snow likely.
If it verifies it should easily give us new SC peak depth.

LWT says yes.
Swell alert for Vic (and WA, if the IO cut off low on 21st eventuates).

GFS
IMG_7121.PNG


EC
IMG_7120.PNG

Moves into Vic roughly @midnight 24th per ec.
If the 500mb heights verify it should be a wild night and possibly
snow also along the southern highlands of nsw @25th.
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
28,264
29,664
1,063
Dubbo NSW
Down around this period. Have a bad feeling ill be about for the warm and wet and then have to be back at work when it snows. Bugger.
 

j_w_x

Hard Yards
Sep 12, 2017
56
123
33
ajeCjeI.png


GFS looked too be trending in the same direction with the large scale anom.
Leave over too you guys now i'm super busy. And yeah that av makes me wanna
puke Donzah. Bernie banton story still rings a bell.
cheers
 

Undies

Superspreadin the lurve
Ski Pass
May 15, 2002
22,810
19,622
1,063
Top drawer
How many 2ft+ storms have we had this season? Can't believe we might be looking at one more to see us out. Dare to dream!
 
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doogasnow

One of Us
Mar 7, 2010
1,401
1,043
363
Moe south
Going to enjoy watching every bit of
This last roller coaster ride unfold
Over the next 7-10 days on all the models!! Really looking forward to
Which way this last hurrah falls??
Will it capitulate? Or will it steam home
And send us off with one of the best snowy blast of the season?
 

Ramshead

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 5, 2006
1,787
4,882
363
52
Sydney
I predict the cold stuff will disappear in the Bight and it will pee rain and blow a gale for the exact 3 days I am in Thredbo from Sep 26-28 and my wife will be reminding me for the next two decades how I insisted we take the kids skiing in awful conditions when she wanted to book the NSW coast which was 27 degrees and sunny all week.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,301
44,108
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Looks like my mind after a night on the shiraz
You need to switch to a Malbec.

Things still looking ok this morning, albeit scaled back more to a spring pattern rather than a mid-winter set-up IMO.
Cold core Bass Strait low on EC could be interesting although I expect changes here.

Still looks positive for 'something' with a strong longwave due on the 25th. The limiting factor looks to be the upper level jet.
Screen Shot 2017-09-18 at 7.57.00 am.png


EC
ecmwf_z500_mslp_aus_10.png
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,301
44,108
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
It's all a bit too weird looking on the extended charts imo.
No confidence at all.
First time in ages it's not a fish in a barrel type system.
Such is the nature of the inter-seasonal model runs.

The synoptic plots lack confidence for sure, but the long wave set-up has remained staunch IMO. I am confident we'll see 'something' out of this but the prospect of a + half a metre dump is diminishing.
Rain will be a given IMO.
 
Last edited:

cookieman

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2013
1,837
2,112
363
Melbourne
This system is looking too marginal for my liking and I predict it will be mainly wet.
Our rural farmers need it more than us.
 

Majikthise

Sage
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 1970
33,247
21,516
1,063
Blue Mts
Canola crop vulnerable in days rather than weeks. ..they can have a little bit now and a bit more later...;)
 
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