Those embedded troughs look positive and hopefully carry the good oiland on the 4th day
Let there be snow
Predictions 24-28 September Last Hurrah
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Still coke-ing off it's head...
GFS has the twin head polar gyre over WA. Looks to be still on its own.
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looks on target.
Beaware that low on cmc too the W of tassie is 978-979mb on the run.
I'm lost ? Alpine way runs through Thredbo.
To answer your question re weather ...I don't see roads being affected until late Sunday
here we go 0z rolling
EC historic looking run.
Pressure looks lovely but temps will very likely dissapoint IMO.
Said it before.. I'll say it again; it's always my main concern for any trans-continental system.
That said, rain is unavoidable for this system IMO.
GFS ens 0z were showing a coast too coast upper-level polar trough K. That's a freezing
cold anom on more than 20 runs. With the GFS you need too look @ mean anom ens.
i never buy the deterministic standalone.
The ridging under the SW WA low is definitely playing a major role in cold air transport, sustaining that transport will be it's biggest struggle.
GFS ens 0z were showing a coast too coast upper-level polar trough K. That's a freezing
cold anom on more than 20 runs. With the GFS you need too look @ mean anom ens.
i never buy the deterministic standalone.
It's got a lot going for it though. Not a lot to lose TBH.
BoM increasing it's buy in, each run.
Thredbo:
Sunday 24 September
Summary
Min 0
Max 1
Snow showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
Alpine area
Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h.
Monday 25 September
Summary
Min -4
Max -2
Snow showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
Alpine area
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 20 to 25 km/h turning westerly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.
Tuesday 26 September
Summary
Min -5
Max 1
Snow showers easing.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%
Alpine area
Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers, most likely during the morning. Winds westerly 15 to 20 km/h.I guess we call all agree on something.
Saturday's going to be a hairdryer of serious magnitude.
But I agree with your earlier remark... GFS is off the table for now.Perhaps toys from the GFS pram but enough for concern IMO.Cant believe you guys who looked over the EC with a neg 4 polar anom and say it will be warm
with low pressure. Shesssssssssss. That's why i give forums away.
Varied interperetations makes for good forecasting IMO.
Flirt?
Me thinks 38 will be possible in Penriff.
Coastal ..if the seabreeze doesn't get going we'll see Bondi Rescue in full force
On ya car temp gauge it will.
The Northerly will cap some rogue temps of the Western burbs, I think.
Its all over. Time to change your cars oil to summer ratios.
Yep, a good split to indicate and support cut off over WA.
Appears stronger than the BLOZ#3 dump.Vert Velocity ---Best adiabatic- tempwise effort from GFS. Stronger lift later but rising temps at 850hPa. lots of warmth and nasty advection 900 to 850 IMO. Needs to improve considerably if we have a chance for non clear precip IMO.Similar threads
