Predictions 24-28 September Last Hurrah

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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and on the 4th day
Let there be snow
IDG00074.gif
Those embedded troughs look positive and hopefully carry the good oil
 
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fmdc9

Hard Yards
Sep 20, 2015
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Would you drive the alpine way out of thredbo on the sunday arvo or better to go another route?
 
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j_w_x

Hard Yards
Sep 12, 2017
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You may have dine on pork for awhile models looking a lamb killa
you get those choc roaches in the finer deli's.
 
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j_w_x

Hard Yards
Sep 12, 2017
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Pressure looks lovely but temps will very likely dissapoint IMO.
e0syPS5.png





GFS ens 0z were showing a coast too coast upper-level polar trough K. That's a freezing
cold anom on more than 20 runs. With the GFS you need too look @ mean anom ens.
i never buy the deterministic standalone.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,301
44,108
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
e0syPS5.png





GFS ens 0z were showing a coast too coast upper-level polar trough K. That's a freezing
cold anom on more than 20 runs. With the GFS you need too look @ mean anom ens.
i never buy the deterministic standalone.
The ridging under the SW WA low is definitely playing a major role in cold air transport, sustaining that transport will be it's biggest struggle.
It's got a lot going for it though. Not a lot to lose TBH.
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
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Nov 26, 2014
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nono.gif
very no.gif
Perhaps toys from the GFS pram but enough for concern IMO.
 

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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,301
44,108
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
BoM increasing it's buy in, each run.
Thredbo:
Sunday 24 September
Summary
snow.png

Min 0
Max 1
Snow showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
rain_90.gif

Alpine area
Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Monday 25 September
Summary
snow.png

Min -4
Max -2
Snow showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
rain_90.gif

Alpine area
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 20 to 25 km/h turning westerly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 26 September
Summary
snow.png

Min -5
Max 1
Snow showers easing.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%
rain_80.gif

Alpine area
Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers, most likely during the morning. Winds westerly 15 to 20 km/h.
 

j_w_x

Hard Yards
Sep 12, 2017
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Cant believe you guys who looked over the EC with a neg 4 polar anom and say it will be warm
with low pressure. Shesssssssssss. That's why i give forums away.
 
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Kayden

Hard Yards
Sep 3, 2017
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I know its still a long way off, but whats the chance for low level snow for northern Tassie ????
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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Nov 26, 2014
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Satellite showing basicly the same Pot Vort pattern as EC and streaming from where we dont want it. 700hpa Vapour Transfer showing same feed pattern.
same as.png
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Ski Pass
Nov 26, 2014
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Vert Velocity ---Best adiabatic- tempwise effort from GFS. Stronger lift later but rising temps at 850hPa. lots of warmth and nasty advection 900 to 850 IMO. Needs to improve considerably if we have a chance for non clear precip IMO.
goon.gif
 
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