Predictions 24-28 September Last Hurrah

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
22,969
28,842
1,063
Yuin Country
Flirt?
Me thinks 38 will be possible in Penriff.
Coastal ..if the seabreeze doesn't get going we'll see Bondi Rescue in full force
my first SLS Patrol saturday arvo.
but that SST not so loverly.....
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,301
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Anything above 1700m is going to be just fine for 15-20cm. It looks to be damaging to anything below IMO.
We have the upper levels pulling their weight, but lower elevations take a hit in their trans-continental tour I am afraid...

EC00Z run:
 
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Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2015
13,736
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Melbourne, Lockdown-i-stan .
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Anything above 1700m is going to be just fine for 15-20cm. It looks to be damaging to anything below IMO.
We have the upper levels pulling their weight, but lower elevations take a hit in their trans-continental tour I am afraid...

EC00Z run:

If this is the case regarding snow falls above 1700 M. ASL then maybe the Horn at Mt. Buffalo might get a last top up. I could find a way to get a quick morning ski on the horn road in on the 2/10/17.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,301
44,108
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Seems not too far off the mark IMO.
A strong front arrives later on Saturday. Its dry for most of the day with a strong northerly wind (likely to reach lift wind hold). There is the chance of showers in the afternoon, more likely at night. The snow level will be above 2000 metres.

This leaves us with persistent precipitation on Sunday - falling as snow above 1800 metres and rain below. We change to snow for Monday (above 1400 metres), persistent in the afternoon and easing in the evening. Expect 20 to 30 cm above 1800 metres, and around 10 cm above 1400 metres.

Its dry on Tuesday as the next high moves through. We're warm again next Wednesday, ahead of the next weather system.
http://www.janebunn.net/snow-forecast
 

Ramshead

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 5, 2006
1,786
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Sydney
I am a simple man who does not understand complicated things in life like weather charts or anything my wife says.

But I am starting to see my Thredbo ski week next week in the following terms:

Monday Arvo: wet snow, wear three drizabones - and that's just to cart gear into the lodge.
Tuesday: I hear the Wild Brumby Distillery makes good schnapps.
Wednesday: Brief weather window of light rain between the heavy rain and heavy rain
Thursday: why the f did u pre-buy cheap internet tix on specific days you idiot?

Am I wrong? Is there any reason to hope?
 

The Plowking

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 15, 2000
18,488
12,228
813
Bonbeach, Vic
I am a simple man who does not understand complicated things in life like weather charts or anything my wife says.

But I am starting to see my Thredbo ski week next week in the following terms:

Monday Arvo: wet snow, wear three drizabones - and that's just to cart gear into the lodge.
Tuesday: I hear the Wild Brumby Distillery makes good schnapps.
Wednesday: Brief weather window of light rain between the heavy rain and heavy rain
Thursday: why the f did u pre-buy cheap internet tix on specific days you idiot?

Am I wrong? Is there any reason to hope?
Jwx reckons snow cos upper level cold. Above 1700 I think?
 
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telecrag

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Oct 12, 2007
35,347
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Was yesterday! Have moisture levels increased at all? At least it didnt look too heavy yesterday on BOM.
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
28,264
29,663
1,063
Dubbo NSW
Much indecisiveness. Have 4 day weekend lined up. To go or not to go is the question?

Not game to make a call yet.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,301
44,108
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
BoM Vic still liking for a gain; indicating snow above 1400m Sunday. BoM NSW likes it for snow above 1500m. Both are on the optimistic end of the scale IMO.

Hotham:
Saturday 23 September
Summary
showers.png

Min 2
Max 11
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%
rain_70.gif

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers and the risk of a thunderstorm, most likely in the evening. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h turning west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 2:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

Sunday 24 September
Summary
snow.png

Min -1
Max 1
Snow showers.
Possible rainfall: 6 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%
rain_80.gif

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 20 to 25 km/h.

Monday 25 September
Summary
snow.png

Min -3
Max -2
Snow shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%
rain_70.gif

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Tuesday 26 September
Summary
snow.png

Min -5
Max 1
Possible shower or snow.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30%
rain_30.gif

Partly cloudy. Morning fog. Slight (30%) chance of a shower or snow. Light winds.
 

Donza

Dogs body...
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
138,470
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woonona
9am to 11am OK... Cloud over the Alps may slow the melt.. But make riding very phlat
 

Donza

Dogs body...
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
138,470
104,288
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woonona
Strange for Saturday.
AXS -R predicts a little surface low over the alps.
Might slow down some of that warmth me thinks.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,301
44,108
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
It's on GFS too. It's more associated with the front, not sure it'll have much affect on the hairdryer before mid-arvo.
Dry slot by Saturday night will balance things out quite quickly IMO.

I think we could see some good storms through to the alps after midday IMO.
 

Donza

Dogs body...
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
138,470
104,288
3,563
woonona
It's on GFS too. It's more associated with the front, not sure it'll have much affect on the hairdryer before mid-arvo.
Dry slot by Saturday night will balance things out quite quickly IMO.

I think we could see some good storms through to the alps after midday IMO.
* I don't look at GFS .. Well not on a micro scale
**CMC looks nicer this morning...go The canucks
 
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