Predictions 24-28 September Last Hurrah

[nfip]

Flirt?
Me thinks 38 will be possible in Penriff.
Coastal ..if the seabreeze doesn't get going we'll see Bondi Rescue in full force

my first SLS Patrol saturday arvo.
but that SST not so loverly.....

 

[POW Hungry]

my first SLS Patrol saturday arvo.
but that SST not so loverly.....

You can't live in God's Country and slag off SST's mate!?

 

[Claude Cat]

Still bugger all confidence in GFS
IMO

 

[nfip]

You can't live in God's Country and slag off SST's mate!?

can get just as cool in Dec/Jan with decent upwelling aka eckman transport.

 

[Nidecker]

Its all over. Time to change your cars oil to summer ratios.

I have such a good story about a V8 ford Van I bought in Arizona and having to change the oil in Crested Butte after 2 x -40 nights, but ....... off topic

 

[POW Hungry]

Anything above 1700m is going to be just fine for 15-20cm. It looks to be damaging to anything below IMO.
We have the upper levels pulling their weight, but lower elevations take a hit in their trans-continental tour I am afraid...

EC00Z run:

 

[POW Hungry]

EC LWT Aus @ '12 o'clock'

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

Anything above 1700m is going to be just fine for 15-20cm. It looks to be damaging to anything below IMO.
We have the upper levels pulling their weight, but lower elevations take a hit in their trans-continental tour I am afraid...

EC00Z run:

If this is the case regarding snow falls above 1700 M. ASL then maybe the Horn at Mt. Buffalo might get a last top up. I could find a way to get a quick morning ski on the horn road in on the 2/10/17.

 

[The Plowking]

Rain.
All i see.

 

[loweee]

Looks very warm Saturday.

 

[Snow Blowey]

Rain.
All i see.

Icey rain?

 

[The Plowking]

Icey rain?

Top of nsw at best imo.
1900^

 

[POW Hungry]

Seems not too far off the mark IMO.

A strong front arrives later on Saturday. Its dry for most of the day with a strong northerly wind (likely to reach lift wind hold). There is the chance of showers in the afternoon, more likely at night. The snow level will be above 2000 metres.

This leaves us with persistent precipitation on Sunday - falling as snow above 1800 metres and rain below. We change to snow for Monday (above 1400 metres), persistent in the afternoon and easing in the evening. Expect 20 to 30 cm above 1800 metres, and around 10 cm above 1400 metres.

Its dry on Tuesday as the next high moves through. We're warm again next Wednesday, ahead of the next weather system.

http://www.janebunn.net/snow-forecast

 

[Claude Cat]

A bit meh, but it is the end of September.
IMO

 

[The Plowking]

A bit meh, but it is the end of September.
IMO

Agree.
But we might as well have our cake and eat it 2017.
Much miss. Very disappoint.

 

[Ramshead]

I am a simple man who does not understand complicated things in life like weather charts or anything my wife says.

But I am starting to see my Thredbo ski week next week in the following terms:

Monday Arvo: wet snow, wear three drizabones - and that's just to cart gear into the lodge.
Tuesday: I hear the Wild Brumby Distillery makes good schnapps.
Wednesday: Brief weather window of light rain between the heavy rain and heavy rain
Thursday: why the f did u pre-buy cheap internet tix on specific days you idiot?

Am I wrong? Is there any reason to hope?

 

[The Plowking]

I am a simple man who does not understand complicated things in life like weather charts or anything my wife says.

But I am starting to see my Thredbo ski week next week in the following terms:

Monday Arvo: wet snow, wear three drizabones - and that's just to cart gear into the lodge.
Tuesday: I hear the Wild Brumby Distillery makes good schnapps.
Wednesday: Brief weather window of light rain between the heavy rain and heavy rain
Thursday: why the f did u pre-buy cheap internet tix on specific days you idiot?

Am I wrong? Is there any reason to hope?

Jwx reckons snow cos upper level cold. Above 1700 I think?

 

[The Plowking]

Stay on topic feckers.

 

[Donza]

Stay on topic feckers.

Needs more happy charts.
Waiting on four day rule

 

[The Plowking]

Needs more happy charts.
Waiting on four day rule

It's barely a borderline system for July let alone September.
4 day schmrule

 

[telecrag]

Was yesterday! Have moisture levels increased at all? At least it didnt look too heavy yesterday on BOM.

 

[Donza]

Four day rule via bom.
All good

 

[The Plowking]

A miss will be best.

 

[Snow Blowey]

Much indecisiveness. Have 4 day weekend lined up. To go or not to go is the question?

Not game to make a call yet.

 

[POW Hungry]

A miss will be best.

GFS looking better for a 'miss' on today's 00Z run. Still has rain but nothing on what it progged over the last coupla days.

Still has a gain above 1700m IMO.

 

[Kletterer]

Not very nice IMO

 

[Claude Cat]

 

[POW Hungry]

EC 00Z

 

[Claude Cat]

still looks odd to me.
It looks like that weak high is ridging it out, but that would seem impossible with 1012 hPa high!
IMO

 

[POW Hungry]

still looks odd to me.
It looks like that weak high is ridging it out, but that would seem impossible with 1012 hPa high!
IMO

Decent jet is hand balling it pretty quickly SE.

 

[POW Hungry]

BoM Vic still liking for a gain; indicating snow above 1400m Sunday. BoM NSW likes it for snow above 1500m. Both are on the optimistic end of the scale IMO.

Hotham:

Saturday 23 September
Summary

Min 2
Max 11
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers and the risk of a thunderstorm, most likely in the evening. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h turning west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 2:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

Sunday 24 September
Summary

Min -1
Max 1
Snow showers.
Possible rainfall: 6 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 20 to 25 km/h.

Monday 25 September
Summary

Min -3
Max -2
Snow shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Tuesday 26 September
Summary

Min -5
Max 1
Possible shower or snow.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30%

Partly cloudy. Morning fog. Slight (30%) chance of a shower or snow. Light winds.

 

[POW Hungry]

EC Precip for Perisher;

 

[POW Hungry]

Perth, back in Winter mode. Impressive raincasting given they're on 31mm for the month thus far!

 

[DiscoStuAU]

Perth, back in Winter mode. Impresive rain totals given they're on 31mm for the month thus far!

Crikey. That's some solid cold temps and especially high rainfall if they land on the high end of the scale. Impressive stuff

 

[POW Hungry]

 

[Donza]

I'm thinking Saturday might be a hairdryer write off.... With some Whind

 

[POW Hungry]

I'm thinking Saturday might be a hairdryer write off.... With some Whind

EC has upgraded since yesterday for Saturday, you'll get your late 30's car temp reading, don't worry about that mate.
That wind is gonna be tinder dry too. Below is for 700/800m

 

[Donza]

9am to 11am OK... Cloud over the Alps may slow the melt.. But make riding very phlat

 

[Rick Ross Da Boss]

Is it looking like rain on sat? (Mt Stirling)or a combination of rain wind and high temps?
Cheers

 

[Donza]

Is it looking like rain on sat? (Mt Stirling)or a combination of rain wind and high temps?
Cheers

IMO rain will be 2pm VIC... 5pm nsw

 

[Jellybeans]

Is it looking like rain on sat? (Mt Stirling)or a combination of rain wind and high temps?
Cheers

Yep I don't think Buller/Stirling will do well at all, over this period.

 

[POW Hungry]

Looking unstable and convective in Western Vic by early Saturday arvo. Some locally heavy falls possible around the thunder cells.

 

[Donza]

Looking unstable and convective in Western Vic by early Saturday arvo. Some locally heavy falls possible around the thunder cells.

Macedon force field in effect

 

[Kletterer]

Spring brutality.

 

[The Plowking]

Yuk.

 

[The Plowking]

Shiitlow x 2.

 

[Donza]

Strange for Saturday.
AXS -R predicts a little surface low over the alps.
Might slow down some of that warmth me thinks.

 

[POW Hungry]

It's on GFS too. It's more associated with the front, not sure it'll have much affect on the hairdryer before mid-arvo.
Dry slot by Saturday night will balance things out quite quickly IMO.

I think we could see some good storms through to the alps after midday IMO.

 

[Donza]

It's on GFS too. It's more associated with the front, not sure it'll have much affect on the hairdryer before mid-arvo.
Dry slot by Saturday night will balance things out quite quickly IMO.

I think we could see some good storms through to the alps after midday IMO.

* I don't look at GFS .. Well not on a micro scale
**CMC looks nicer this morning...go The canucks

 

[POW Hungry]

* I don't look at GFS .. Well not on a micro scale
**CMC looks nicer this morning...go The canucks

I am just saying it supports a surface low too. It's a very unstable airmass as it passes through Vic.