Predictions 24-28 September Last Hurrah

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Sep 17, 2017.

  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It'll throw up a few odd ones as it crosses us.
     
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  2. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Funny how the seasons this year have followed the 22nd Dec - 22nd March - 21st June - 22nd Sept pattern to a tee in South-East Australia. I think it's fair to say that after equinox it's tough to get net gain rather than net loss of snow.
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    *Last year was an anom but net gain post equinox did happen.
     
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  4. j_w_x_

    j_w_x_ First Runs

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    Stop your B/S.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    The last run was still on track.
     
  5. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us

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    Woooo...
     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thunderstorm asthma warnings will be issued you'd imagine.
    Similar conditions to last event
     
  7. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

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    i think in the bottom right is something nice?
     

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  8. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    We shall see...
     
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    That be a long way away though
     
  10. j_w_x_

    j_w_x_ First Runs

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    Yes if the EC holds serve on the 00z, then its a fair indication the other global model
    (GFS)....the only ocean uncoupled model these days is spewing shit data or just
    cannot resolve convention over the GAB.
     
  11. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    EC has always been more consistent than G-Frog-S though, always. Well, as far as I've been following the models for about 15 years now
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's not even close, these days, IMO
     
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Already has been, earlier this week.
     
  14. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Four D looks tidy.
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Took awhile but GFS is beginning to cotton on to this thing now... temps looking a bit better on the 00Z run.
     
  16. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah GFS kinda is.
    Stll loses its bundle past 120 hrs
    has so many scenarios
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's like it's never seen a cut-off low over SW WA before.
     
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  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Last 48hrs in GFS
    [​IMG]
     
  19. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday.
    So with that mind, this'll probably morph into some super moist polar outbreak and drop 40cm to ~800m overnight. Cause FML.
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll be sending Mrs Chopps a cheese platter if this is the case
     
  22. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This would be greatly appreciated.
     
  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Depending on the Birthing method, you may need some large BBQ packs

    *and i'm just filling time until EC updates
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Send her a midwife.
     
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  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    They usually come along included .
    except in my case
    and mine was drunk
    and late
     
  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mine slapped everybody in the room.
     
  27. Woodsy1991

    Woodsy1991 Hard Yards

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    For those of you in the know, what conditions are you expecting for the NSW resorts (Perisher mostly) for the 23rd-25th period?
    Cheers.
     
  28. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think we've covered that somewhere in the above.
    And micks baby
     
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  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a complicated answer (too much for me who's on the tools), but Jane has a pretty good handle on it IMO but I think the final outcome will be more in the realm of 15-20cm for the resorts - Perisher likely to pick up the higher end of that range.

    http://www.janebunn.net/snow-forecast
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM's Perisher update.
     
  32. j_w_x_

    j_w_x_ First Runs

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    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    0Z sticks soild.
     
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  33. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM have applied the 3 day rule now
     
  34. j_w_x_

    j_w_x_ First Runs

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    I have my own rules.
     
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  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey I'm batting for you.
    Currently packing for a departure tomorrow.
    I'll be back next month
     
  36. Woodsy1991

    Woodsy1991 Hard Yards

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    @POW_hungry

    Cheers mate, being a plumber a lot of the speak in these threads goes straight over my head. Laymans terms is what I'm after
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    What ever happened to the Dungbeatle @Richard
     
  38. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I see NSW BOM are sticking to their 1500m asl forecast.
    Thats the real so so height for snowlevel forecasts at Perisher i've found.
    Usually its soap flake style melters that look pretty . However do sweet fa
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah it's ambitious, as is Jane's snow level IMO.
    Still 1700m based on EC's upper for now, I reckon.

    *haven't seen 00z run though
     
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  40. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC update
    yup its cold enough
     
  41. Kayden

    Kayden Hard Yards

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    Do you guys think that Tassie will get much snow?
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's should see snow above 600m on Monday (throughout it's coldest point on Monday, around 1100m on Sunday) IMO.
     
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  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah this looks good for 1400-1500m Monday. Looking like 5-15cm, 20cm max for the majors except Buller IMO. Sunday looks like 1700-1800m to me.
     
  44. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Long way from a wash out at least! 4 dayer looks like snow. Pressure nice n low
     
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  45. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey dudes any thoughts on the strength of the northerlies ahead of change in central vic? Bom seems like its not too bad, but this year each time there is a front they release a severe wrather warning the day before and it blows the crabs out if the sand or some such metaphor
     
  46. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    And it looks strong.
     
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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's wind. And there will be warnings for the Alpine. Rest-assured.
    [​IMG]

    What's going on in Central Vic? Crab fest?
     
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  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Temp advection Monday looking a little feeble at 800 hPa on GFS . Cold up higher but not much to write home about below 700hPa ( 3000 mtrs. ) IMO 1800m freeze level could be on the cards IMO
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The way I see it, temps don't allow for much snow accumulation below 1700m until early Monday AM, when things start to dry up, when cold upper levels start to fill in.

    The prospect of decent (the 15-20cm) accumulation will be above 1700m IMO.
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Uppers pulling their weight for this one for sure. Lower elies struggle for the most part Sunday through Monday AM
     
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