Predictions 24-28 September Last Hurrah

[Vermillion]

I am just saying it supports a surface low too. It's a very unstable airmass as it passes through Vic.

It'll throw up a few odd ones as it crosses us.

 

[Hermon]

Funny how the seasons this year have followed the 22nd Dec - 22nd March - 21st June - 22nd Sept pattern to a tee in South-East Australia. I think it's fair to say that after equinox it's tough to get net gain rather than net loss of snow.

 

[POW Hungry]

Funny how the seasons this year have followed the 22nd Dec - 22nd March - 21st June - 22nd Sept pattern to a tee in South-East Australia. I think it's fair to say that after equinox it's tough to get net gain rather than net loss of snow.

*Last year was an anom but net gain post equinox did happen.

 

[j_w_x_]

Shiitlow x 2.

Stop your B/S.

The last run was still on track.

 

[Rat trap bindings]

Stop your B/S.

The last run was still on track.

Woooo...

 

[Donza]

I am just saying it supports a surface low too. It's a very unstable airmass as it passes through Vic.

Thunderstorm asthma warnings will be issued you'd imagine.
Similar conditions to last event

 

[Infinity Dawn]

i think in the bottom right is something nice?

 

[The Plowking]

Stop your B/S.

The last run was still on track.

We shall see...

 

[Jellybeans]

i think in the bottom right is something nice?

That be a long way away though

 

[j_w_x_]

We shall see...

Yes if the EC holds serve on the 00z, then its a fair indication the other global model
(GFS)....the only ocean uncoupled model these days is spewing shit data or just
cannot resolve convention over the GAB.

 

[FourSquare04]

EC has always been more consistent than G-Frog-S though, always. Well, as far as I've been following the models for about 15 years now

 

[Claude Cat]

EC has always been more consistent than G-Frog-S though, always. Well, as far as I've been following the models for about 15 years now

It's not even close, these days, IMO

 

[Claude Cat]

Thunderstorm asthma warnings will be issued you'd imagine.
Similar conditions to last event

Already has been, earlier this week.

 

[Donza]

Four D looks tidy.

 

[POW Hungry]

Took awhile but GFS is beginning to cotton on to this thing now... temps looking a bit better on the 00Z run.

 

[Donza]

Yeah GFS kinda is.
Stll loses its bundle past 120 hrs
has so many scenarios

 

[POW Hungry]

It's like it's never seen a cut-off low over SW WA before.

 

[Donza]

It's like it's never seen a cut-off low over SW WA before.

Last 48hrs in GFS

 

[The Plowking]

@mick chopps
Much optimism.
Dont share.

Baby out?

 

[mick chopps]

@mick_chopps
Much optimism.
Dont share.

Baby out?

Monday.
So with that mind, this'll probably morph into some super moist polar outbreak and drop 40cm to ~800m overnight. Cause FML.

 

[Donza]

Monday.
So with that mind, this'll probably morph into some super moist polar outbreak and drop 40cm to ~800m overnight. Cause FML.

I'll be sending Mrs Chopps a cheese platter if this is the case

 

[mick chopps]

I'll be sending Mrs Chopps a cheese platter if this is the case

This would be greatly appreciated.

 

[Donza]

This would be greatly appreciated.

Depending on the Birthing method, you may need some large BBQ packs

*and i'm just filling time until EC updates

 

[POW Hungry]

I'll be sending Mrs Chopps a cheese platter if this is the case

Send her a midwife.

 

[Donza]

Send her a midwife.

They usually come along included .
except in my case
and mine was drunk
and late

 

[Kletterer]

Mine slapped everybody in the room.

 

[Woodsy1991]

For those of you in the know, what conditions are you expecting for the NSW resorts (Perisher mostly) for the 23rd-25th period?
Cheers.

 

[The Plowking]

For those of you in the know, what conditions are you expecting for the NSW resorts (Perisher mostly) for the 23rd-25th period?
Cheers.

I think we've covered that somewhere in the above.
And micks baby

 

[Claude Cat]

Stay on topic.

 

[POW Hungry]

For those of you in the know, what conditions are you expecting for the NSW resorts (Perisher mostly) for the 23rd-25th period?
Cheers.

It's a complicated answer (too much for me who's on the tools), but Jane has a pretty good handle on it IMO but I think the final outcome will be more in the realm of 15-20cm for the resorts - Perisher likely to pick up the higher end of that range.

A strong front arrives later on Saturday. Its dry for most of the day with a strong northerly wind (likely to reach lift wind hold). There is the chance of showers in the afternoon and evening but most will stay dry.

The air is marginally cool on Sunday with persistent precipitation in a westerly wind - falling as snow above 1700/1800 metres and rain below. It cools further and we change to snow for Monday (above 1400 metres, 1200 metres in southern VIC). Expect 20 to 30 cm above 1800 metres, and around 10 cm for the lower slopes.

Its turns dry early on Tuesday as the next high moves through. We're warm again on Wednesday, and dry through the day.

http://www.janebunn.net/snow-forecast

 

[POW Hungry]

BoM's Perisher update.

Sunday 24 September
Summary

Min 1
Max 3
Snow showers. Very windy.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%

Alpine area
Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers. Winds west to northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 3:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Monday 25 September
Summary

Min -1
Max 1
Snow shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 8 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%

Alpine area
Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h.

Tuesday 26 September
Summary

Min -5
Max 4
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20%

Alpine area
Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a snow shower. Winds westerly 20 to 25 km/h.

 

[j_w_x_]

0Z sticks soild.

 

[Donza]

BoM's Perisher update.

BOM have applied the 3 day rule now

 

[j_w_x_]

BOM have applied the 3 day rule now

I have my own rules.

 

[Donza]

I have my own rules.

Hey I'm batting for you.
Currently packing for a departure tomorrow.
I'll be back next month

 

[Woodsy1991]

@POW_hungry

Cheers mate, being a plumber a lot of the speak in these threads goes straight over my head. Laymans terms is what I'm after

 

[POW Hungry]

@POW_hungry

Cheers mate, being a plumber a lot of the speak in these threads goes straight over my head. Laymans terms is what I'm after

What ever happened to the Dungbeatle @Richard

 

[Donza]

I see NSW BOM are sticking to their 1500m asl forecast.
Thats the real so so height for snowlevel forecasts at Perisher i've found.
Usually its soap flake style melters that look pretty . However do sweet fa

 

[POW Hungry]

I see NSW BOM are sticking to their 1500m asl forecast.
Thats the real so so height for snowlevel forecasts at Perisher i've found.
Usually its soap flake style melters that look pretty . However do sweet fa

Yeah it's ambitious, as is Jane's snow level IMO.
Still 1700m based on EC's upper for now, I reckon.

*haven't seen 00z run though

 

[Donza]

EC update
yup its cold enough

 

[Kayden]

Do you guys think that Tassie will get much snow?

 

[POW Hungry]

Do you guys think that Tassie will get much snow?

It's should see snow above 600m on Monday (throughout it's coldest point on Monday, around 1100m on Sunday) IMO.

 

[Jellybeans]

Yeah this looks good for 1400-1500m Monday. Looking like 5-15cm, 20cm max for the majors except Buller IMO. Sunday looks like 1700-1800m to me.

 

[mr]

Long way from a wash out at least! 4 dayer looks like snow. Pressure nice n low

 

[mr]

Hey dudes any thoughts on the strength of the northerlies ahead of change in central vic? Bom seems like its not too bad, but this year each time there is a front they release a severe wrather warning the day before and it blows the crabs out if the sand or some such metaphor

 

[The Plowking]

Hey dudes any thoughts on the strength of the northerlies ahead of change in central vic? Bom seems like its not too bad, but this year each time there is a front they release a severe wrather warning the day before and it blows the crabs out if the sand or some such metaphor

And it looks strong.

 

[POW Hungry]

Hey dudes any thoughts on the strength of the northerlies ahead of change in central vic? Bom seems like its not too bad, but this year each time there is a front they release a severe wrather warning the day before and it blows the crabs out if the sand or some such metaphor

There's wind. And there will be warnings for the Alpine. Rest-assured.

What's going on in Central Vic? Crab fest?

 

[Kletterer]

Temp advection Monday looking a little feeble at 800 hPa on GFS . Cold up higher but not much to write home about below 700hPa ( 3000 mtrs. ) IMO 1800m freeze level could be on the cards IMO

 

[POW Hungry]

The way I see it, temps don't allow for much snow accumulation below 1700m until early Monday AM, when things start to dry up, when cold upper levels start to fill in.

The prospect of decent (the 15-20cm) accumulation will be above 1700m IMO.

 

[POW Hungry]

Temp advection Monday looking a little feeble at 800 hPa on GFS . Cold up higher but not much to write home about below 700hPa ( 3000 mtrs. ) IMO

Uppers pulling their weight for this one for sure. Lower elies struggle for the most part Sunday through Monday AM