Predictions 24-28 September Last Hurrah

Hermon

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Aug 24, 2008
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Funny how the seasons this year have followed the 22nd Dec - 22nd March - 21st June - 22nd Sept pattern to a tee in South-East Australia. I think it's fair to say that after equinox it's tough to get net gain rather than net loss of snow.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Funny how the seasons this year have followed the 22nd Dec - 22nd March - 21st June - 22nd Sept pattern to a tee in South-East Australia. I think it's fair to say that after equinox it's tough to get net gain rather than net loss of snow.
*Last year was an anom but net gain post equinox did happen.
 
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j_w_x_

First Runs
Sep 21, 2017
15
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Shiitlow x 2.
Stop your B/S.

7WYw3PI.png



CXMThoE.png



WeBUyLO.png



The last run was still on track.
 
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Woodsy1991

Hard Yards
Aug 4, 2017
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For those of you in the know, what conditions are you expecting for the NSW resorts (Perisher mostly) for the 23rd-25th period?
Cheers.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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For those of you in the know, what conditions are you expecting for the NSW resorts (Perisher mostly) for the 23rd-25th period?
Cheers.
It's a complicated answer (too much for me who's on the tools), but Jane has a pretty good handle on it IMO but I think the final outcome will be more in the realm of 15-20cm for the resorts - Perisher likely to pick up the higher end of that range.

A strong front arrives later on Saturday. Its dry for most of the day with a strong northerly wind (likely to reach lift wind hold). There is the chance of showers in the afternoon and evening but most will stay dry.

The air is marginally cool on Sunday with persistent precipitation in a westerly wind - falling as snow above 1700/1800 metres and rain below. It cools further and we change to snow for Monday (above 1400 metres, 1200 metres in southern VIC). Expect 20 to 30 cm above 1800 metres, and around 10 cm for the lower slopes.

Its turns dry early on Tuesday as the next high moves through. We're warm again on Wednesday, and dry through the day.
http://www.janebunn.net/snow-forecast
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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BoM's Perisher update.
Sunday 24 September
Summary
snow.png

Min 1
Max 3
Snow showers. Very windy.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%
rain_80.gif

Alpine area
Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers. Winds west to northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 3:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Monday 25 September
Summary
snow.png

Min -1
Max 1
Snow shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 8 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%
rain_70.gif

Alpine area
Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h.

Tuesday 26 September
Summary
partly-cloudy.png

Min -5
Max 4
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20%
rain_20.gif

Alpine area
Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a snow shower. Winds westerly 20 to 25 km/h.
 

Donza

Dogs body...
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I see NSW BOM are sticking to their 1500m asl forecast.
Thats the real so so height for snowlevel forecasts at Perisher i've found.
Usually its soap flake style melters that look pretty . However do sweet fa
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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I see NSW BOM are sticking to their 1500m asl forecast.
Thats the real so so height for snowlevel forecasts at Perisher i've found.
Usually its soap flake style melters that look pretty . However do sweet fa
Yeah it's ambitious, as is Jane's snow level IMO.
Still 1700m based on EC's upper for now, I reckon.

*haven't seen 00z run though
 
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Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
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Aug 24, 2015
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IMG_2079.PNG

Yeah this looks good for 1400-1500m Monday. Looking like 5-15cm, 20cm max for the majors except Buller IMO. Sunday looks like 1700-1800m to me.
 

mr

Old n' Crusty
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Oct 24, 2003
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Hey dudes any thoughts on the strength of the northerlies ahead of change in central vic? Bom seems like its not too bad, but this year each time there is a front they release a severe wrather warning the day before and it blows the crabs out if the sand or some such metaphor
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Hey dudes any thoughts on the strength of the northerlies ahead of change in central vic? Bom seems like its not too bad, but this year each time there is a front they release a severe wrather warning the day before and it blows the crabs out if the sand or some such metaphor
There's wind. And there will be warnings for the Alpine. Rest-assured.
gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2017092100z.fcst-201709231600z.s850.vic.null.0.png


What's going on in Central Vic? Crab fest?
 
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Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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Temp advection Monday looking a little feeble at 800 hPa on GFS . Cold up higher but not much to write home about below 700hPa ( 3000 mtrs. ) IMO 1800m freeze level could be on the cards IMO
marginal.gif
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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The way I see it, temps don't allow for much snow accumulation below 1700m until early Monday AM, when things start to dry up, when cold upper levels start to fill in.

The prospect of decent (the 15-20cm) accumulation will be above 1700m IMO.
 
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