Predictions 24-28 September Last Hurrah

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,301
44,108
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Look at this temp gradient @ resort lev. for Satdee arvo.
A 14-16C temp deviation over 400/500kms. Wind shear will be chronic.

N.B. The +20C resort level heat pool near the Vic Alps.... Ferrrrk.
gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2017092100z.fcst-201709231600z.t850.vic.null.0.png
 

mr

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Oct 24, 2003
20,249
15,721
1,063
melbourne
There's wind. And there will be warnings for the Alpine. Rest-assured.
gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2017092100z.fcst-201709231600z.s850.vic.null.0.png


What's going on in Central Vic? Crab fest?


Ha ha Thanks. Was hoping to get up to our yurt (blowing the goats out of the yurt?) but its on top of a hill at around 600m facing north and it just fkn howls up there and the flappity flap can make it hard to sleep.

Theres a fair bit of west in that map, which isnt as bad as a cranking straight northerly
 
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,301
44,108
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Ha ha Thanks. Was hoping to get up to our yurt (blowing the goats out of the yurt?) but its on top of a hill at around 600m facing north and it just fkn howls up there and the flappity flap can make it hard to sleep.

Theres a fair bit of west in that map, which isnt as bad as a cranking straight northerly
600m, why didn't you say so. ;)
Here's your winds for around 680m ASL. Looking worse into late arvo but should be Northerly until the Westerly front pushes through around 2/3pm for you.
gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2017092100z.fcst-201709231600z.s950.vic.null.0.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: mr

Richard

Maintenance Dept
Administrator
Mar 14, 1995
16,377
25,406
813
Clarence Town
What ever happened to the Dungbeatle @Richard

The Dung Beatle was last years failed experiment (another in a very long list of failed ideas). Mostly due to the publishing effort being too onerous v's the readership numbers. Plus, there was an element of swimming upstream, the crowd here is predominately technical and so my thinking has turned to how do I swim with the current.

I do feel that the objective of bringing a laymans interpretation of the weather prediction threads is still a valid goal.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,301
44,108
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
The Dung Beatle was last years failed experiment (another in a very long list of failed ideas). Mostly due to the publishing effort being too onerous v's the readership numbers. Plus, there was an element of swimming upstream, the crowd here is predominately technical and so my thinking has turned to how do I swim with the current.

I do feel that the objective of bringing a laymans interpretation of the weather prediction threads is still a valid goal.
Probably for another thread but 100% agree with the objective. Not failed at all, just difficult to roll out with the tools at hand.
There's alot of technical analysis and jargon that just needs a simple thread header 'dashboard' of sorts to breakdown WTF is actually on the table per system. Happy to help should you need input - although I know you have many at your ski tips. Cheers mate.
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Ski Pass
Nov 26, 2014
24,945
31,406
1,063
Canberra
The passion and pain of elusive, evolving probabilities. Not an easy realm to dwell within.
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
13,766
23,771
813
Box Hill, VIC
Probably for another thread but 100% agree with the objective. Not failed at all, just difficult to roll out with the tools at hand.
There's alot of technical analysis and jargon that just needs a simple thread header 'dashboard' of sorts to breakdown WTF is actually on the table per system. Happy to help should you need input - although I know you have many at your ski tips. Cheers mate.

Would be a good idea to create a simple interpretation.
But this looks like an interesting idea.
2. The return of Weather.
The rest of the member fees from this last 12 months will be allocated to rebuilding a new 'Weather' section specifically for the needs of the weather forum crowd - obs, models, forecasts from as many sources as practical will be hauled onto the site so it's all in one spot and can be easily shared in threads. This will take the most of summer and some parts of it will become a 'prime' feature available only to season pass members.
 
  • Like
Reactions: The Plowking
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

chriscross

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 1, 2005
2,687
1,696
363
The Foothills
Vic Bom just called 29 for Melb tomorrow! Ouch - for resorts. Will there be a proper top up Sunday- Monday? Would love to get in another mid week trip.
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Ski Pass
Nov 26, 2014
24,945
31,406
1,063
Canberra
Possibly the most likely period of favourable ingredients coming together IMO. Mind you its at 800 hPa and there will be considerable warm air advection again on Tuesday.
favourable.gif
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,301
44,108
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Possibly the most likely period of favourable ingredients coming together IMO. Mind you its at 800 hPa and there will be considerable warm air advection again on Tuesday.
favourable.gif
I only just noticed it but the map projection on that plot is whack. It's disproportionate North to South.
It's virtually azimuthal which makes it difficult to view in context.
 

telecrag

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Oct 12, 2007
35,347
57,034
1,063
Radar has a nice fist low in the bight, BOM downgraded moisture yesterday, I am hoping its more of a miss. Some cold air over WA, is ip possible the fist will punch up with cold and deliver?
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Ski Pass
Nov 26, 2014
24,945
31,406
1,063
Canberra
As i mentioned on Tuesday ,GFS was a little kooky but the general patterns- run to run, ( taking all ingredients into account and reading between the lines), was warm and dry.
 
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Log in

or Log in using
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass