Decent agreement between the models on a cheeky little node. EC and CMC however looking substantially colder than GFS, with a more robust cold node, as compared to a trough. Models are looking at ~5-15cm for this, there may be opportunity for a little more IMO if conditions are good. CMC: GFS: EC:
CMC and EC look quite alright. For a top-up style system. GFS is a bit of a worry, but you know it does what it wants.
Yeah, not a lot of agreement IMO. The Canadian (and GFS) put a transcontinental on the table with the low peaking in WA, pushing through the SE a few days later. My rule of thumb is don't go near the transcontinental cold pools - it'll 9 out of 10 wind up marginal. EC needs to resolve it's proposed low in the Bight IMO:
18Z GFS was doing a tasman low. 925mb is the same as looking @ a synoptic's surface plot @ that time if it was to verify. And no surprise if over the next few runs there are a totally different solutions. Popcorn time. GFS entertainment... inc
Baw Baw might benefit from the forthcoming weather activity. We shall wait and see. Seeing BB is staying open on weekends they need some snow. In fact all of VIC. above 1200 M. needs 2 metres of snow!!! Ms. Bunn's modelling has no mega snowfall in the pipeline at all for VIC. NEXT 7 DAYS Mt Buller: 9cm Mt Hotham: 7cm Falls Creek: 7cm Mt Baw Baw: 14cm Perisher: 8cm Thredbo: 7cm Charlotte Pass: 10cm Selwyn: 2cm Lake Mountain: 4cm Mt Stirling: 8cm Ben Lomond: 3cm Mt Mawson: 14cm
EC 00z thinking along the lines. The energy GAB point from the system . @SA before its land tour.. GFS was showing this on trop plots more than a week ago.
I am not seeing much more than a dusting in this date range. A few days later on the 27/28th however, does provide some hope of perhaps 5-10cm.
12z - 18z Global models Pretty much looking @ a multi state broad scale cold snap on current Global models atm.
You maybe right atm. But lets see how the modeling unfolds over the next 3 days and what the bom thinks as it nears. Global models past few months have been all over the shop even @ medium range. .................................................................................................................................................................................. That said agree. Canuck 12z @03z 27 looked to me a good chance for decent flake totals. It's is from the same anom tho.
GFS 00z has it peaking just South of The Eucla. Broad based High dominating the Tasman as we near a neutral AAO value. Ridge out IMO.
Not much change in the GFS 00z still sends that cutoff cold pool as-per its other runs. Canuck still looks the best @ that date. See's a small low entering in the strait.
Weather looks shit for Victoria until the highs move away north. Hopefully SAM will shift by August ,we usually get a few weeks of frontal westerly belts.
Flukey set-up as the ULL moves through the NSW North Coast and is drawn South with the passing of the trailing front on the 27th. Potentially potent but at 160 hours, I wouldn't hang my hat on it.
Can’t see much from this system or anything else for the next 2 weeks unless something dramatic changes
Depressing as hell for any Victorian meanwhile in NSW it looks mint and we are locked in this disaster zone .. god i hope i can ski Mt Buller in first weeks of August with some half decent cover
Have never seen such a benign July in the last 15 years of me following the weather . Maybe August will be better . So many big fat highs everywhere
Nothing worse than a BFH as per last month. Except for the one that cradled last weeks ECL giving the 60 cm dump. A BFH stuck below Perth can send up a cold SW flow... W
My hunch is these east coast low's are tied-up to the current incoming La- nina enso pattern atm. But unless you hear it from someone with a PHD behind them. Take it with a grain of salt.
It seems to be the consensus on this forum. Just need someone with a Ph.D.in Meterology to sign off on it. Any takers. I thought someone here had one. Bombing TM.
Ms.Bunn's modelling sees nothing worth remarking about in the next ten days. Grass skiing and mountain biking in late July. It is quite odd really. Vail resorts picked a 'good year ' (SIC) to take over two major VIC. ski locations . NEXT 7 DAYS Mt Buller: 1cm Mt Hotham: 3cm Falls Creek: 2cm Mt Baw Baw: 4cm Perisher: 5cm Thredbo: 6cm Charlotte Pass: 5cm Selwyn: 3cm Lake Mountain: 1cm Mt Stirling: 1cm Ben Lomond: 0cm Mt Mawson: 0cm
Wouldnt like to own one of those properties hanging off the sand cliff edge, this swell could cause more erosion.
00z EC ens control run. That would whip it up if it verifys. Roughy cyclonic 40kts wind @ the surface.
Lightening striking the same tree twice in a fortnight ya reckon? That'd be some decent Sportsbet odds.
Bom's guidance atm is in-line with ec ens. Hard to turn a blind eye to it. When it supported by EC control ens modeling.
The double-header Tasman Low on EC broadens the meridonal (North-South) axis leaving not much in it for the Alps IMO.
June 2007 was good for a series of east coast lows with snow too. Not the same +ve impact as westerlies on season quality by a long shot but in NSW they can be a season saver when the westerlies go missing.
Donzah should thrive on this one. Eat it for breakfast . Have noticed donzah has a very good understanding of a lows position for the best potential outcomes.
Hardly. Rather have a decent recollection of different snow bearing systems. In the 90s I filled a ring binder with charts from the last page of the herald. I think weather is like fashion.
