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Predictions 24th-27th July Top-up system

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Jellybeans, Jul 18, 2020.

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  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Decent agreement between the models on a cheeky little node.

    EC and CMC however looking substantially colder than GFS, with a more robust cold node, as compared to a trough.

    Models are looking at ~5-15cm for this, there may be opportunity for a little more IMO if conditions are good.

    CMC:


    GFS:


    EC:
     
  2. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Good work, will be there. look for a foot!!
     
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  3. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looking perhaps a tad better


    But GFS pulling right back


    And CMC too

     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    CMC and EC look quite alright. For a top-up style system.

    GFS is a bit of a worry, but you know it does what it wants.
     
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  5. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah agree EC is the only model atm on the 00z's that looked just ok. GFS/CMC ens had just a ridge.









     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, not a lot of agreement IMO.
    The Canadian (and GFS) put a transcontinental on the table with the low peaking in WA, pushing through the SE a few days later.
    My rule of thumb is don't go near the transcontinental cold pools - it'll 9 out of 10 wind up marginal.

    EC needs to resolve it's proposed low in the Bight IMO:
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Deteriorated on all models this AM.
     
  8. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    18Z GFS was doing a tasman low. 925mb is the same as looking @ a synoptic's surface plot @ that time if it was to verify.
    And no surprise if over the next few runs there are a totally different solutions. Popcorn time.


    gfs-deterministic-aus-z500_anom-5732400.png








    GFS entertainment... inc
     
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  9. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  10. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z GFS
    [​IMG]

     
    #10 stormkite2000, Jul 19, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2020
  11. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z canuck was in-bed with GFS.Just weaker.

     
  12. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC 00z thinking along the lines.











    The energy GAB point from the system . @SA before its land tour..





    GFS was showing this on trop plots more than a week ago.
     
    #12 stormkite2000, Jul 19, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2020
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am not seeing much more than a dusting in this date range.

    A few days later on the 27/28th however, does provide some hope of perhaps 5-10cm.
     
  14. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    12z - 18z Global models
















    Pretty much looking @ a multi state broad scale cold snap on current Global models atm.
     
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  15. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    You maybe right atm. But lets see how the modeling unfolds over the next 3 days and what the bom thinks as it nears.

    Global models past few months have been all over the shop even @ medium range.

    ..................................................................................................................................................................................
    That said agree. Canuck 12z @03z 27 looked to me a good chance for decent flake totals. It's is from the same anom tho.





     
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  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 18Z 500hPa Temps on the approach
     
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  17. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS 18Z incoming point is just west of Adelaide.
    precip--mslp,__precip_seaus_t19_00-111-2020071918z.png temperature--500_seaus_t10_00-102-2020071918z.png







     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z has it peaking just South of The Eucla.
    Broad based High dominating the Tasman as we near a neutral AAO value.
    Ridge out IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sliding away on EC this arvo too, with a strengthening ridge:
    [​IMG]
     
  20. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can we move onto end of month? These date range is distressing me :cry:
     
  21. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Not much change in the GFS 00z still sends that cutoff cold pool as-per its other runs.

    Canuck still looks the best @ that date.











    See's a small low entering in the strait.
     
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  22. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Bom's thinking atm.

     
  23. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Another Betty !
     
  24. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Weather looks shit for Victoria until the highs move away north.
    Hopefully SAM will shift by August ,we usually get a few weeks of frontal westerly belts.
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Flukey set-up as the ULL moves through the NSW North Coast and is drawn South with the passing of the trailing front on the 27th.
    Potentially potent but at 160 hours, I wouldn't hang my hat on it.
     
  26. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    gfs-deterministic-aus-z500_anom-5937600.png ecmwf-deterministic-aus-z500_anom-5937600.png gem-all-aus-z500_anom-5937600.png
















    No full consensus atm. Eachway bet
     
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  27. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Can’t see much from this system or anything else for the next 2 weeks unless something dramatic changes
     
  28. Guthega Girl

    Guthega Girl Addicted

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    Depressing as hell for any Victorian meanwhile in NSW it looks mint and we are locked in this disaster zone .. god i hope i can ski Mt Buller in first weeks of August with some half decent cover
     
  29. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Have never seen such a benign July in the last 15 years of me following the weather . Maybe August will be better . So many big fat highs everywhere
     
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  30. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    #30 stormkite2000, Jul 21, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2020
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  31. warrie

    warrie One of Us

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    Nothing worse than a BFH as per last month. Except for the one that cradled last weeks ECL giving the 60 cm dump. A BFH stuck below Perth can send up a cold SW flow... W
     
  32. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    My hunch is these east coast low's are tied-up to the current incoming La- nina enso pattern atm. But unless you hear it from someone with a PHD behind them. Take it with a grain of salt.
     
  33. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    It seems to be the consensus on this forum. Just need someone with a Ph.D.in Meterology to sign off on it. Any takers.

    I thought someone here had one.

    Bombing TM. LOL
     
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  34. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Looks like its gonna pump (surf) again. Yew.
     
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  35. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah EPS saying lock the low in eddy.


    download (1).png download (3).png download (2).png
     
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  36. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Above is GFS core model.



     
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  37. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  38. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  39. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Wouldnt like to own one of those properties hanging off the sand cliff edge, this swell could cause more erosion.
     
  40. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC not so good tonight
     
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  41. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z EC ens control run.




    That would whip it up if it verifys. Roughy cyclonic 40kts wind @ the surface.
     
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  42. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Another 20-30cm of porridge for NSW IMO
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lightening striking the same tree twice in a fortnight ya reckon?
    That'd be some decent Sportsbet odds.
     
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  44. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Remember 2005?
    I reckon we had five Sou East systems.
    Sometimes. It's the vibe
     
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  45. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Bom's guidance atm is in-line with ec ens.





    Hard to turn a blind eye to it. When it supported by EC control ens modeling.
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The double-header Tasman Low on EC broadens the meridonal (North-South) axis leaving not much in it for the Alps IMO.
     
  47. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Its watch how it unfolds for me.The lows strength may go either way atm
     
  48. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    June 2007 was good for a series of east coast lows with snow too. Not the same +ve impact as westerlies on season quality by a long shot but in NSW they can be a season saver when the westerlies go missing.
     
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  49. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Donzah should thrive on this one. Eat it for breakfast . Have noticed donzah has a very good understanding of a lows position for the best potential outcomes.
     
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  50. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hardly.
    Rather have a decent recollection of different snow bearing systems.
    In the 90s I filled a ring binder with charts from the last page of the herald.
    I think weather is like fashion.
     
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