Predictions 24th-27th July Top-up system

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stormkite2000

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Hardly.
Rather have a decent recollection of different snow bearing systems.
In the 90s I filled a ring binder with charts from the last page of the herald.
I think weather is like fashion.

Think you are short-changing yourself. Think myself this low maybe a loose cannon.
 
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Donza

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Think you are short-changing yourself. Think myself this low maybe a loose cannon.
Gut feel.. This low is 1400-1600m porridge.
Though the rates around the midnight to dawn period are encouraging for lower numbers..
However the tail is warm.

Unless you are Canadian
And I'm warming to them.
There is some logical consistent progression.
And I'll be brutally honest. They picked it last system
 

stormkite2000

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The 12zEC ens master was still holding serve. loose cannon. Deterministic mslp run away from its own ens.

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-aus-mslp-1595332800-1595764800-1595894400-10.gif






Deterministic wave heights

ecmwf-wave-aus-max_indiv_wave_height-1595332800-1595721600-1596196800-10.gif
 
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7wombathead

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I kind of get more turned on by the 138 hrs & GFS. Better winds for swell generation and snot.

ICON and CMC are sitting on the fence as the Canadian and German does not have an independent mind to pick through the ensembles, they leave that to the Yank.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_aus_23.png


gfs_mslp_wind_aus_24.png


ecmwf_z500_mslp_aus_7.png
 

stormkite2000

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Looks further north than last weeks low.

Still a decent spread with where it will be and drift to off the coast. It's really more about what this feature will do to the coastline. And the possible flooding in some area's that may come with it. I leave it @that now and just watch. Likely a rough ride for some.

download (4).png




download (3).png
 

Astro66

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Can I just say, that so many of the charts in here are out the date range. It's making it very difficult for the lay person, to understand what is actually happening on the 24th and 25th of July. <Relayed to me by a confused fellow forum member>
 

NightSky

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Can I just say, that so many of the charts in here are out the date range. It's making it very difficult for the lay person, to understand what is actually happening on the 24th and 25th of July. <Relayed to me by a confused fellow forum member>
Yeah, the time window has grown over the last week as multiple systems seem to be somewhat intertwining, it believe we are now looking from the 25th through to the about the 29th as 2 events flow through.
 

stormkite2000

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Can I just say, that so many of the charts in here are out the date range. It's making it very difficult for the lay person, to understand what is actually happening on the 24th and 25th of July. <Relayed to me by a confused fellow forum member>

Pretty much 24-25 sux snowwise for the lower se with the ridge. (Tan colour)
gem-all-aus-z500_anom-1595332800-1595602800-1595710800-20.gif
gfs-deterministic-aus-z500_anom-1595354400-1595624400-1595710800-20.gif

ecmwf-deterministic-aus-z500_anom-1595354400-1595624400-1595678400-10.gif



Its all about later with the modeled low.Thread title would confuse agreed.
 

Lady Penelope

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Can I, as a simple befuddled lay person who likes gaining weather/snow info from these threads, make a suggestion to all you learned weather folk? While your charts and interpretations of the models are very much appreciated, you may as well be talking Swahili unless you add a very short and simple analysis for the amateurs such as me (eg "snow to 1400m", or "sucks big time - bring your raincoat" etc) - so far I'm getting the sense that there's nothing in this system snow-wise for the Snowy Mountains.
 

Young Angus

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Haha I don't mind it, I'm not a meteorologist but I can pick out the main points from the comments and that's good enough for me. If you other laypeople can find a good weather school where we can all learn more stuff from the basics through to more advanced stuff I'll join in! (not sure this is the place for that though)
 

stormkite2000

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Can I, as a simple befuddled lay person who likes gaining weather/snow info from these threads, make a suggestion to all you learned weather folk? While your charts and interpretations of the models are very much appreciated, you may as well be talking Swahili unless you add a very short and simple analysis for the amateurs such as me (eg "snow to 1400m", or "sucks big time - bring your raincoat" etc) - so far I'm getting the sense that there's nothing in this system snow-wise for the Snowy Mountains.


My posts are not important they are what i see and think they are showing in the models to me. People Interpret them differently. I see a extremely low confidence forecast for snow @ that date 24-25 atm.

Your best bet is the official bom forecast.


http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/perisher.shtml
 

POW Hungry

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Date range extended.

For those who need a recap:
The initial UL low on the 25th dissects the SE and winds up as a Tasman Low.
This system is then reinforced with an upper level trough on the 27th, which deepens and broadens the Low in the Tasman.
The outlook for snow in this date range is limited and reliant on the position of the Low.

IMO, at this stage both systems fail to position and influence the Alpine region with any snowfall, as it currently stands.
 

Astro66

Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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Can I, as a simple befuddled lay person who likes gaining weather/snow info from these threads, make a suggestion to all you learned weather folk? While your charts and interpretations of the models are very much appreciated, you may as well be talking Swahili unless you add a very short and simple analysis for the amateurs such as me (eg "snow to 1400m", or "sucks big time - bring your raincoat" etc) - so far I'm getting the sense that there's nothing in this system snow-wise for the Snowy Mountains.
No need to go to the BOM Lady P. All your weather needs will be serviced here. :)

So here's BOM and Weatherzone for Perisher for the date range.

As you can see, it's borderline whether it will fall as snow or rain. I'm thinking, with the elevation of Perisher, it will be more of that glug we got last week. But it could go either way. Not the best snow for skiing. But good for future trips. IMO of course.

Capture1.JPG


Capture2.JPG
 
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stormkite2000

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00z EC hires see's mainly sleet with 5cm over the extended range as-per thread title.

ecmwf-deterministic-aus-total_snow_10to1_cm-1595376000-1595653200-1595894400-20.gif



Leave here its wasting my time.
 

DidSurfNowSki

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BoM has the low further north than the last ECL. @Astro66 please note that you need to look at the chart with 'Friday', 'Saturday' and 'Sunday' as being in the thread date range. Thursday is unfortunately outside the date range, but that is how the BoM supplies the chart.

IDG00074.gif
 
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Lady Penelope

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My posts are not important they are what i see and think they are showing in the models to me. People Interpret them differently. I see a extremely low confidence forecast for snow @ that date 24-25 atm.

Your best bet is the official bom forecast.


http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/perisher.shtml
Thanks @stormkite2000 . Your posts are important; I noticed that BOM weren't terribly accurate with their forecasts last year so it's always good to have an analysis of the various models here in this forum (which has proven invaluable in the past). Just a few words to go with the charts ....
 
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Ret-ro

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Gut feel.. This low is 1400-1600m porridge.
Though the rates around the midnight to dawn period are encouraging for lower numbers..
However the tail is warm.

Unless you are Canadian
And I'm warming to them.
There is some logical consistent progression.
And I'll be brutally honest. They picked it last system
Love the Canadians!!

Very happy to be 'lay' person watching the weather come.
 

Ret-ro

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20 on the cards , better then 5..
Up high at 1900m its looking good.
upg.JPG
 

rocketboy

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What's the prognosis for tomorrow at Perisher? Is it still a snowy day?

above 1700m it should be wet snow - says the BOM - might be wishful thinking though - sure looks like a quality rain event sitting in the balance. but the forecasts all seem to say we'll dodge the pineapple.
 
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