Predictions 25-29th June

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Jun 19, 2017.

  1. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,549
    Likes Received:
    1,037
    I'll be optimistic and say the weekends totals will be:
    • Buller = 22cms
    • Falls = 18cms
    • Perisher 14cms
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,735
    Likes Received:
    6,512
    Verdict is it's heading in the right direction.

    Nope. It's well over a week away and only and has about a 30-40% of survival this far out IMO.
    it's weather discussion not horse racing
     
    Ramshead and Claude Cat like this.
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,081
    Likes Received:
    28,739
    The sad reality is that Buller almost never gets more than the other big mountains.
    The weather is coming from the NW to west.
    IMO falls hotham perisher will be around 15cm and Buller around 10cm as the charts currently stand.
    Buller might actually get more precipitation than the others but not of the right kind.

    But don't bet on it!
     
  4. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2015
    Messages:
    157
    Likes Received:
    212
    See, being from NSW, I don't really care about Buller, Falls or Hotham, but I do want to understand the progression of precipitation events as they occur across the range and the impact that has on Perisher.
     
  5. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2017
    Messages:
    183
    Likes Received:
    85
    Here to that
     
  6. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2017
    Messages:
    183
    Likes Received:
    85
    Here is the snow watch forecast
    Source: snow watch .com
     

    Attached Files:

    Nightskywatcher likes this.
  7. Vandans

    Vandans Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2012
    Messages:
    91
    Likes Received:
    40
    BOM 4 layer looking a bit better
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,735
    Likes Received:
    6,512
    I am no Mod but this stuff doesn't belong in a predictions thread (it's been many a topic of discussion over the last 10-15 years), have you searched the WX forums?
     
    nfip and mick chopps like this.
  9. Astro666

    Astro666 Active Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2016
    Messages:
    156
    Likes Received:
    434
    Yep, weather predictions please.

    So 25th - 26th event, looks like it kicks off Sat Arvo, and runs through to late Monday. Though real cold air not arriving till late Sunday. So maybe get wet Sat, IMO.

    Could be good for up to 30cm if the Mintyness is really fresh. But I'm calling 20-25cm net gain.

     
  10. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2015
    Messages:
    157
    Likes Received:
    212
    I can sort correlate the predictions myself with a bit more data. I see a lot of difference of "we are expecting 15cm here" to "we got 5cm there"

    As a prediction it would be nice to add a bit more locality to it as well a little. Knowing that Hotham is getting it but Perisher isn't or vice versa, and how much the variation is likely to be, that's all.
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,735
    Likes Received:
    6,512
    As a general rule, it would be averaged across all resorts. When your talking Aus alps, it's in the same region, literally 200-250km apart, you're really splitting hairs for ~5cm difference in snowfall between resorts. If there's going to be disparity due to conditions one would usually underline that.
    In terms of what to look for; it comes with experience, stick around and you'll tune into what conditions resorts favour here and there. There's a myriad of variables - far to many to list here.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,081
    Likes Received:
    28,739
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,735
    Likes Received:
    6,512
    GFS 00Z, coming to terms with something due on/around the 29th. Still whack though.
    [​IMG]
     
    #63 POW_hungry, Jun 20, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2017
    Snowy Joey, nfip and Claude Cat like this.
  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    9,029
    Likes Received:
    7,380
    Todays GFS showing an upgrade in Vertical Velocity/ Negative divergence over NSW resorts but less over Vic resorts.
     
  15. fmdc9

    fmdc9 Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2015
    Messages:
    278
    Likes Received:
    123
    29th looks the goods if that comes off.
    long way out.
     
  16. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2017
    Messages:
    183
    Likes Received:
    85
    Get hyped more snow forecast from the BOM from the 22nd right through to the 4th of July
     
  17. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    10,932
    Likes Received:
    7,586
    EC 216 & 240 shows similiar progression of the cut-off / cold pool.
    * long way to go yet .
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    Snowy Joey likes this.
  18. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    1,634
    Likes Received:
    1,361
    BOM is "locking in"

     
  19. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    16,816
    Likes Received:
    7,230
    Looking good for 10-15 of much needed mint.

    Also, great to see the BOM's locational tautologies in use again....
     
    Astro666 likes this.
  20. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    4,195
    Likes Received:
    5,406
    #4DayRule !!!
     
    nfip likes this.
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,735
    Likes Received:
    6,512
    00Z GFS puts some blisteringly cold temps over Tas on Monday. -5/-14/-36C in the uppers on Monday 1am. That puts snow possible down to 300m ASL, possibly lower. Whilst this is probably going to change, these are some super cold uppers for June.

    Here's Hobart's T-Skew - 1am Monday 26th:
    [​IMG]
     
    #71 POW_hungry, Jun 20, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2017
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,081
    Likes Received:
    28,739
    IMO EC "29th June" part is slipping out to the 30th.
    Canucks have gone crazy over the 28th.

    [​IMG]

    Not getting agreement from other models though.

    IMO
     
    mick chopps, Snowy Joey, IAB and 2 others like this.
  23. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    10,932
    Likes Received:
    7,586
    This system has been slipping time-wise gradually as it progresses.
    Assumed all due to the position & anchoring of the West Oz H.
    Although it also has some work to do also with the modelled cutting off scenario on the EC / GFS.
     
    #73 nfip, Jun 20, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2017
  24. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2013
    Messages:
    322
    Likes Received:
    387
    Sweet Baby Jesus, please let Canucks on the 28th come through... :)
     
    Snowy Joey, SnowBound, MickM and 3 others like this.
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,081
    Likes Received:
    28,739
    EC is still looking to deliver 10-15cm for the 25/26 IMO
    Still not a lot agreement in the models for right through this period.
    AXS actually looks pretty crap.
     
    Froff Life and POW_hungry like this.
  26. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    1,634
    Likes Received:
    1,361
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,735
    Likes Received:
    6,512
    Temps are a bit uninspiring Saturday night through Sunday-Midday. A wintery mix for 1500-1700m and limiting 'gain' for this period, IMO.
    Still think ~10cm is the going rate Sun arvo/Monday IMO.
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,735
    Likes Received:
    6,512
    A balanced, accurate forecast for a resort employee. This kid should go far.
     
    #78 POW_hungry, Jun 20, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2017
    Ramshead, Froff Life, nfip and 7 others like this.
  29. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,546
    Likes Received:
    2,706
    Male Jane Bunn?
     
  30. snowblowa

    snowblowa Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2010
    Messages:
    877
    Likes Received:
    754
    I liked your old avatar Wardy, bring it back ;)
     
    Wardy likes this.
  31. snowblowa

    snowblowa Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2010
    Messages:
    877
    Likes Received:
    754
    July is the Michael Jordan of winter....
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  32. Kieran

    Kieran Addicted Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    5,373
    Likes Received:
    1,220
    I think the technical term is Man Bunn...
     
  33. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,387
    Likes Received:
    27,188
    Those temps are certain snow for Old Chopps.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,735
    Likes Received:
    6,512
    EC 12Z run puts the 30th Jun follow up as a clipper at best. GFS still there and interestingly The Canuck looking similar to an earlier EC run, looks large.
    No agreement still has it with ~30% chance of survival IMO.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  35. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,387
    Likes Received:
    27,188
    By go far you mean get shafted for somebody who'll speak utter bull dust that whips the punters into a frenzy?
     
    Froff Life, Ted Harper and POW_hungry like this.
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,735
    Likes Received:
    6,512
    Looks like it starts to dry up through Central/eastern Tas early Monday morning, but still a chance of something light IMO.
     
  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,387
    Likes Received:
    27,188
    Probably needs a bit more southerly than that, will be fresh.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,081
    Likes Received:
    28,739
    TBH I'm not seeing anything beyond the weekend now on EC.

    IMO
     
    Vermillion likes this.
  39. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 30, 2015
    Messages:
    457
    Likes Received:
    1,182
    Are we looking at another High coming back in and ruining the party again?
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,735
    Likes Received:
    6,512
    Luckily we're not talking about San Bernadino NP Vs The Sierra Nevada huh!? ;) The point is we're talking Aus Alps - by in large the same playing field as far as our major resorts go.
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,735
    Likes Received:
    6,512
    just an itty bitty high
    [​IMG]
     
  42. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 30, 2015
    Messages:
    457
    Likes Received:
    1,182
  43. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,523
    Likes Received:
    413
    18Z GFS doesn't look too bad, IMO. A reasonable positioning of the High way out west which might allow a series of fronts through next week.
     
  44. alexd

    alexd Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    May 22, 2017
    Messages:
    215
    Likes Received:
    525
    Hopecasting, its so far away. It's pretty much assumed that we'll get snowy systems in July anyway. Just gotta keep waiting.
    And this is the June 25-29 thread. Long range hope casts are better off in the BBQ thread.
     
  45. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,082
    Likes Received:
    3,018
    errrg 1982
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,081
    Likes Received:
    28,739
    Stay on topic, date range predictions only.
     
    Chaeron and W0nkey D0nkey like this.
  47. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    52
    Likes Received:
    34
    Jasper Schwarz likes this.
  48. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2017
    Messages:
    183
    Likes Received:
    85
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,735
    Likes Received:
    6,512
    EC reverting to something on 30th (dropped the blocking High from this AM's run), interestingly it's not too dissimilar to GFS's scenario progged on Monday PM.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #99 POW_hungry, Jun 21, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2017
    Kenziepettit, Claude Cat and Karicta like this.
  50. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    2,523
    ^^well doesn't that seem to open the ****ing door!!