Predictions 25-29th June

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 19, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Highlights the models have NFI at the moment
     
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  2. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    8 or 9 days out is a crapshoot at the best of times, surely
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, but EC isn't usually swinging about or resembling GFS @ 216hrs.;)
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking good on EC for the 30th, again. the cut-off scenario suggests it may deliver more on the 1st as it draws in off the Tasman but temps might start to be a bit of an issue. An NSW-special if it verifies but still a looong way out though.

     
    #104 POW_hungry, Jun 21, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2017
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  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm still to be convinced for the 30th TBH.
    The good thing is that EC has locked in 10-15cm for the weekend. IMO
     
  6. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    that shape / progression has held for last couple of days now both GFS and EC.
    *240 hrs
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not for 30th. It's been yes and no across all models.
     
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  8. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Kewl.
    Last night occured same cut off type scenario to me.
     
  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 29th.Nice bit of vorticty and vertical velocity with a better behaved Divergence level than previous runs . Liking Sunday atm.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here's EC's comparison 24 hours apart (last nights and Monday's 12Z), very different proggs.
     
  11. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    At least it's going in a better direction than worse... clutching at straws.
     
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  12. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah ok.
    Soz , my bad.
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    All good mate, just thought I'd highlight it. Like CC, I am a bit of a skeptic at this point. Too much movement run to run, model to model.
     
    #113 POW_hungry, Jun 21, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2017
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yup, too much variability.
     
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  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can't make head nor tail of the charts around these dates. Looks all together underwhelming on EC this morning. Temps marginal, not much moisture. Defer to wiser heads than mine but 10-15cm above 1600m ain't much to get excited about..
    IMO
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO EC looks slightly weaker for the weekend, but slightly better for the 30th.
    Neither screams dump, but any snow is good snow right now.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Drier on GFS on both 06Z and 12Z. Dunno where Jane and BoM are getting these totals from TBH.
    Below is Saturday night to Monday AM


    5-10cm at best for this period IMO
     
  18. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    At least its not screaming rain, so the cover should be relatively safe.
     
  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    lel
    the cover....
     
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  20. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon from a long way out, precipitation was always going to be the limiting factor this year...
     
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  21. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    Well yes, there is that....
     
  22. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    They have weather zone silver
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah agreed, it's been very obvious to watch the long rangers prog the norm, and pare it back to the realistic, climatic outlook.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    haha!
     
  25. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yer it a mess at the moment we all agree .
    Has been for a few weeks
    Just the same cut-off scenario was on a couple of the charts the other day , thought it was GFS and EC (maybe was AXS ) but not going to go looking for it now.:thumbs:
     
  26. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  27. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    4th July independence day
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
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  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dont underestimate where this could be headed. Vertical velocity as per bottom colour scale - precip in brown,pink grey
     
  30. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Grasshopper's take:

    We stick with the high today meaning it’ll be partly cloudy with moderate north-westerly winds. The wind strengthens tomorrow as a weak cold front passes to the south of the Aussie Alps.

    The models are continuing to downgrade this weekend’s snow. Cold fronts have struggled to do any real damage to the persistent high that we have endured so far this season. As we get closer to the event it is becoming apparent that the high doesn’t want to completely relinquish its power.

    Saturday will be cloudy with some light snow showers/flurries in the afternoon/eve above 1600m as the remnants of a weak low approach from The Bight. This low is now looking significantly weaker than it did a few days ago which means that we are only likely to see a couple of centimetres in VIC resorts with a dusting in NSW. A weak front also passes through from Sunday into Monday. Light snow showers or flurries on Sunday will continue into Monday morning giving an additional 3-8cm in VIC resorts which are better placed to sponge moisture off this system. NSW will get around 5cm – a bit disappointing. So, snowfall totals from Saturday through to Monday will be in the region of 5-12cm for VIC resorts and 1-6cm for NSW.

    Thursday: Partly cloudy. Moderate north-westerly winds.
    Friday: Partly cloudy. Strong W/NW winds.
    Saturday: Cloudy. Afternoon/eve snow showers above 1600m will give a dusting in NSW with a couple of centimetres poss. in VIC. Moderate north-westerly winds.
    Sunday: Cloudy with light snow showers. 3-8cm in VIC with 1-5cm in NSW to 1500m. Moderate north-westerly winds turning westerly in the afternoon.​
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I wouldn't take it seriously for the 1st, it's runs are very unsettled. The 00Z is already very different (pineapples & unicorns).
     
  32. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perth scored around 60mm of very welcome rain today.

    Hopefully it will hit you guys in volumes, Just a bit colder and drier
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Approximately 20-30mm more than what was in the WATL prog today. I suspect that's a contributor to the model adjustments for SE Aus over the last 36 hours.
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM going for Snow down to 400m in Tassie tomorrow night/Saturday morning. I struggle to see it but we're all entitled to our opinions, I guess.
     
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  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yr No saying 15cm for MountGinini 30/1st.
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is it not GFS that you posted though?
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes it is and it shows stronger convergence creeping down from the Northeast- perhaps not reaching the Main Range but quite possibly affecting as far as the Brindabellas.
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That run you've posted (12Z yesterday), for GFS was whack. Progression seemed over-hyped IMO and resembles nothing close to what GFS brought to the table today (00Z/06Z), that's all I am saying.

    I certainly see something for the 1JUL, but seeing as it lacks any alignment amongst the majors I am partly convinced it will produce a few cms or fade to black.
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC has shifted it's focus back on the 29th, looking good against GFS who throws up a seemingly overstated large Tasman Low.
    Needs to stay there on the next 2-3 runs to lock it in IMO.
     
  40. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I saw 700m yesterday. They've updated their forecast?
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  42. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    and so it begins....giddy up....
    [​IMG]
     
  43. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like an upgrade on this mornings charts. Just pointing it out for the crew that wonder why charts never improve the snow outlook over time.
     
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  44. alexd

    alexd One of Us

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    I thought the same, it looked a little better than the gloomy outlook, but we'll have to wait n see of course.
     
  45. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any snow this weekend looks to have completely disappeared for NSW resorts, maybe a sprinkling for VIC. At least it will be cold enough for snow making
     
  46. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM disagrees...

    Saturday 24 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 4
    Possible snow shower.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
    Chance of any rain: 40% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 30 to 40 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Sunday 25 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max 3
    Snow shower or two. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds westerly 35 to 50 km/h increasing to 50 to 65 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 35 to 50 km/h during the evening.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Monday 26 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 4
    Possible snow shower.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 40% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of snow showers in the morning and afternoon. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h tending southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

    for Perisher.
     
  47. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Any Banana benders planning to head south for a snow trip that might be worth the time , effort and money should wait until the end of July. That is when the real stuff starts to fall out of the sky in larger amounts. Based on my experience June is really a non starter, there is no base and the cold clear nights make the surface ICY. Even late September is a better bet for Perisher and Mt. Bogong.
     
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  48. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    I'm quite surprised at the lack of 'minty' vibe type comments in here, considering what we woke up to this morning.

    Yes, the models oversold the original weakening of the high (this weekend's systems), but I think the positioning of everything for Wednesday June 28 to Friday June 30/Saturday July 1, is worth getting excited over.

    This weekend has two clipping fronts, and just a little moisture coming in from the west, so, 5 to 10 cm (Friday night to Monday).

    The next one has the trifecta - moisture feed, cold air and a cut-off low - represented in some form or another on most models. Its ballpark 20 to 40 cm based on this morning's data, and yes, it will probably back off and then ramp up again as we near those dates.

    But this one has much better potential than what we've seen for a long while.

    And if you don't feel like adding up data from the EC model, you can see it easily here :) :
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-buller/
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham/
    http://www.janebunn.net/falls-creek/
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-baw-baw/
    http://www.janebunn.net/perisher/
    http://www.janebunn.net/thredbo/
    http://www.janebunn.net/selwyn/

    The first 3 days are OCF (weighted average of all the models) and the remaining days are EC - straight model data, no tweaks by a human. The temperatures are all OCF.

    Remaining resorts are not far away from going live (will be all EC data, as there are no weather stations = no OCF).
    "Updated time" and a few more tweaks will soon be added to make it easier.

    (oh, and word of wisdom for interpreting BOM forecasts - the main update is each afternoon [~4:30pm], based on [generally] the 12Z model run. The morning issue [~5:30am] is generally only tweaked for day one, and the remaining days are still based on that old 12Z model data...)
     
  49. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Has shape , there is some hope ...but the pressures not in our favour.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    500's not super cold .
    [​IMG]

    edit : Jane posted just as I was putting this punters obs together . :)
     
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  50. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Forgot this loverly satellite pic.