Looks like temps on Sunday are looking more favourable, but alas it's looking much drier. I think 1-3cm is this weekend at best IMO now. SKUNKED!
BoM (Perisher) hasn't moved too much... Saturday 24 June Summary Min -3 Max 4 Snow shower or two. Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm Chance of any rain: 50% Alpine Area area Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning. Winds westerly 35 to 50 km/h tending southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then becoming west to southwesterly and light in the late afternoon. Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low] Sunday 25 June Summary Min -5 Max 3 Snow shower or two. Windy. Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm Chance of any rain: 70% Alpine Area area Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h increasing to 45 to 65 km/h in the early afternoon. Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low] Monday 26 June Summary Min -3 Max 4 Snow shower or two. Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm Chance of any rain: 70% Alpine Area area Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds westerly 35 to 50 km/h turning southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening.
Wasn't much into the early part of this period from the get go , the later part and just after it look a little more interesting to my untrained eye. Still keeping an eye on something I might have seen the other day for the first part of next month , looks interesting as well although this far out its more like chooklotto. Still always a hope if you stay positive for long enough.
It's been in and out of the EC runs whilst GFS spins out on some weird cut off scenario. Can't help but feel EC is GFS's 'downgrade'.
It's still there... Sunday 25 June Summary Min -4 Max 2 Snow showers. Becoming windy. Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm Chance of any rain: 80% Alpine Area area Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h increasing to 45 to 65 km/h in the early afternoon. Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low] Monday 26 June Summary Min -3 Max 5 Possible early snow shower. Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm Chance of any rain: 30% Alpine Area area Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a snow shower in the early morning. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h tending southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the early afternoon. Perisher - BoM
I certainly concur with your sentiments. GFS progs a little more in the tank than EC so something in the middle (3-5cm) seems reasonable @96hrs out. It's clutching straws but remarkably, even on the SR models, there's no depth to these fronts. Savor the moment of a sub-1010hPa system.
I think the cold temperatures this week will allow heaps of snowmaking and with a few cms tonight and 3-5cm on Thursday, we should start to see some more terrain open up.
GFS pretty good for thurs on latest run. Crazy fetch and drawing in some moisture - not huge, but more than the others Axs not so fetchy, and can't see EC, but based on yr.no is not as good
Ambitious amount IMO. Southern Resorts such as Baw Baw/Buller might see circa 5-8cm, but the other majors are looking at 3-5cm at best IMO.
Looking mighty dry on latest GFS run. It's dwindling away to no much more than a dusting for Thursday night, Friday now (with the exception of Baw Baw). EC remains '3-5cm' optimistic.
Storybook of June so far really. We notice a potential system, and then it gradually downgrades into a dusting by the time it comes through.
Well, if its any consolation there are un-forecast showers rolling into Adelaide as we speak. It may surprise yet.... Nah, i'm going to stop kidding myself now.
High pressure dominance....at least it's been relatively cold. Dry and cold is better than dry and warm IMO....who knows, when the high belt finally breaks down, it may go nuts. History is littered with late starting seasons that blaze up in August and September IMO
Absolutely. Some from recent memory include 2010, 2003, 1984, 1992. Even 2008 didn't really get going until mid - late in July then was quite reasonable.
The pre-frontal rain that is part of the next system will probably wipe away any totals from this system. Sorry to be a Debbie Downer
It was a late start, and it finished up relatively quick, but a lot of the systems lined up with the weekends and I had some epic skiing. It was also my first season back as a punter after instructing and I enjoyed it immensely.
Contextualizing. Remember that in June 2008 it was too warm to make snow. The 2008 winter was very dry overall, but enough precip fell as snow in July and August for it to ski really well.
