Predictions 25-29th June

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Jun 19, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Looks like temps on Sunday are looking more favourable, but alas it's looking much drier. I think 1-3cm is this weekend at best IMO now. SKUNKED!
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #151 POW_hungry, Jun 23, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2017
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Snow down as low as 500m in Southern Tas on Sunday arvo IMO.
    Hobart T-Skew:
    [​IMG]
     
  3. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    BoM (Perisher) hasn't moved too much...

    Saturday 24 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 4
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning. Winds westerly 35 to 50 km/h tending southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then becoming west to southwesterly and light in the late afternoon.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]


    Sunday 25 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -5
    Max 3
    Snow shower or two. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h increasing to 45 to 65 km/h in the early afternoon.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Monday 26 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 4
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds westerly 35 to 50 km/h turning southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening.
     
  4. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs Dedicated Member
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    Thanks, that is useful to know.
     
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  5. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Wasn't much into the early part of this period from the get go , the later part and just after it look a little more interesting to my untrained eye. Still keeping an eye on something I might have seen the other day for the first part of next month , looks interesting as well although this far out its more like chooklotto. Still always a hope if you stay positive for long enough.
     
  6. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Independence day
     
  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    GFS almost back to its unicorn realm s from 2 days back. Bottom model is vertical velocity.
     
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    looking ok Thursday afternoon on EC.

    [​IMG]

    Still wild divergence on GFS and CMC.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Predictions only for the date range pls. ;)LOL
     
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  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Isn't the 29th in this date range ? ;)
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    It's been in and out of the EC runs whilst GFS spins out on some weird cut off scenario. Can't help but feel EC is GFS's 'downgrade'.
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Perhaps 5cm in it IMO.
     
  13. chriscross

    chriscross Dedicated Member
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    What about tomorrow night (25th)? Is there something happening, or has it disappeared?
     
  14. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    It's still there...

    Sunday 25 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max 2
    Snow showers. Becoming windy.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h increasing to 45 to 65 km/h in the early afternoon.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]


    Monday 26 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 5
    Possible early snow shower.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
    Chance of any rain: 30% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a snow shower in the early morning. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h tending southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the early afternoon.

    Perisher - BoM
     
  15. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    EC was toying with this in the Uppers yes.
     
  16. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Hmmm.
    [​IMG]
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Perisher:
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Still likely to bring a few cms to the table IMO.
     
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  19. chriscross

    chriscross Dedicated Member
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    Thanks, gurus. Thinking about bb midweek. Still a maybe, just...
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I think we're still looking down the barrel of 3-5cm for Thursday's follow-up.
    [​IMG]
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I'm not convinced it's any more than a dusting now IMO.
    Disappointed.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I certainly concur with your sentiments.
    GFS progs a little more in the tank than EC so something in the middle (3-5cm) seems reasonable @96hrs out. It's clutching straws but remarkably, even on the SR models, there's no depth to these fronts.
    Savor the moment of a sub-1010hPa system.
     
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  23. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I think the cold temperatures this week will allow heaps of snowmaking and with a few cms tonight and 3-5cm on Thursday, we should start to see some more terrain open up.
     
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  24. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Fizzer
     
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  25. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    GFS pretty good for thurs on latest run. Crazy fetch and drawing in some moisture - not huge, but more than the others

    Axs not so fetchy, and can't see EC, but based on yr.no is not as good
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS18Z
    [​IMG]
    Vs. EC 12Z (less interested)


    As I mentioned last night, still 3-5cm if you ask me.
     
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  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Yeah, pressure in the 1020's doesnt really interest me.
     
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  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Spag says yes .
    But observed eslewhere lacking the significant moisture .
     
  29. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    I'd be surprised if it holds up, that High looks like a hard ridger behind it
     
  30. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Strayla
     
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  31. newman

    newman Active Member

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    @janesweather predicting 10 to 20cm for Wednesday/Thursday.

    No love for that on here?
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Ambitious amount IMO.
    Southern Resorts such as Baw Baw/Buller might see circa 5-8cm, but the other majors are looking at 3-5cm at best IMO.
     
  33. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    7 days since it pooked any good.
    Fairy land maps.
    Like the one after though.
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    As expected, she has scaled back this morning.
    [​IMG]
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Looking mighty dry on latest GFS run. It's dwindling away to no much more than a dusting for Thursday night, Friday now (with the exception of Baw Baw).
    EC remains '3-5cm' optimistic.
     
  36. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Storybook of June so far really. We notice a potential system, and then it gradually downgrades into a dusting by the time it comes through.
     
  37. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Active Member

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    Well, if its any consolation there are un-forecast showers rolling into Adelaide as we speak. It may surprise yet....
    Nah, i'm going to stop kidding myself now.
     
  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Certainly going to be cold enough, but the moisture and pressure just arent there in this one.
     
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  39. snowblowa

    snowblowa Dedicated Member

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    High pressure dominance....at least it's been relatively cold. Dry and cold is better than dry and warm IMO....who knows, when the high belt finally breaks down, it may go nuts. History is littered with late starting seasons that blaze up in August and September IMO
     
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  40. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Absolutely.

    Some from recent memory include 2010, 2003, 1984, 1992.

    Even 2008 didn't really get going until mid - late in July then was quite reasonable.
     
  41. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    The pre-frontal rain that is part of the next system will probably wipe away any totals from this system.
    Sorry to be a Debbie Downer :cry:
     
  42. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    2008 was awesome. Still top-to-bottom at Buller in the first week of September with good cover IIRC.
     
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  43. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    It was a late start, and it finished up relatively quick, but a lot of the systems lined up with the weekends and I had some epic skiing.

    It was also my first season back as a punter after instructing and I enjoyed it immensely.
     
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  44. chriscross

    chriscross Dedicated Member
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    Predictions or reminiscences?
     
  45. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Contextualizing.

    Remember that in June 2008 it was too warm to make snow. The 2008 winter was very dry overall, but enough precip fell as snow in July and August for it to ski really well.
     
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