Predictions 26-28 July

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Jul 17, 2016.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    And rightfully so. Textbook winter system.
    Potentially 20-30cm of snow down to 800-900m
    [​IMG]
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    12Z on EC and GFS liking this one. An upgrade for EC IMO with a better position of the High giving the cold air a little more amplitude.
     
    #2 POW_hungry, Jul 18, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2016
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  3. skichic

    skichic Addicted Member

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    Of course there will be weather. Interschools.
     
  4. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I can only see out to Saturday 12z / 138hrs ?
     
  5. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    i vote for merging threads given likelihood of consistent snowfall bridging date ranges
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I think you're looking at 18Z, it's still loading...
     
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  7. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yep. Patience Grasshopper !
     
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  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    It's a long way out but it doesnt excite me that much. Chance of ridging = high. LWT not really on board either.
     
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  9. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Agree.
    Spag not showing much (after Sunday), *at this stage.
    [​IMG]
     
  10. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    There won't be powder, that's for sure.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    -5 @ 850hPa... I wouldn't rule it out. Seems cold.
     
  13. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    Never mind the science. I'm there at this time.
     
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  14. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Looks Far-ken windy on EC IMO
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Happy with ya ridge set-up mate?;)
    Not the end of the world 'cause it's GFS but certainly a nail in the coffin. EC will tell all tonight.
    [​IMG]
     
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  16. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    EC looks COLD. And finishing with some nice strong Southerly winds, which is shit for the resorts but good for the epic decents.[​IMG]
     
  17. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Moisture is alright, not great but the snow guns will be working hard
     
  18. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    We want it where the guns are not.
     
  19. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Expect good quality snow but not a lot of it
     
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  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I think that was the consensus was last week but we got way more.

    When its nodal (rosberg waves) and cold I think we will get big snow falls.

    When its not nodal and cold we get not much snow.

    In my view anyway.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Well yes and no. Last system was not a big dump in the scheme of things. Eg the "season start" was a much bigger dump, but the quality of snow wasn't as good. But that was what was needed to get things going.
     
  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    But the quicker it clears Tuesday or Wednesday or Thursday the better for the backcountry touring.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO going on EC alone, I'd say it looks around 40cm (+/- 10cm)
     
  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    It depends were you were. Lower East faces have not look that good for a long time, e.g. The tree runs below the main range into the snowy river were fantastic, due to wind blow though.

    Also last dump was mostly a single 12 hr event.
     
    #24 7wombathead, Jul 18, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2016
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  25. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Anyway I have a theory with hypothesis A & B to be tested.

    (A) When its Nodal (rosberg waves) and cold I think we will get big snow falls.

    (B) When its Not nodal and cold we get not much snow.

    For the last few years we have had these cold spells that were ridging and not so nodal. Good for snow making.
     
  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    There still good numbers for this part of the dump.

    But I am getting confused by the two dates.
     
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    yeh, I'm only talking about the last part of the system, 26th & 27th.
    We'll see more earlier, but after some rain.
    IMO
     
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  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Im getting confused with the modelling.
    Spag v EC ....
     
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  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Thats alot.
     
  30. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    EC looking awesome this morning. GFS agrees. IMO.
    Very well aligned this far out.
    Did anyone order a Buller Special?!
     
  31. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Looking rather minty .
    GFS
    [​IMG]

    EC similar cut off low like last week.
    [​IMG]
     
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  32. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Upon further inspection I probably should've said broadly aligned this far out...
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC looking better than GFS. And you'll get a true SW if we see EC unfold.
    GFS positioning of high is not AS ideal. Still open to ridging IMO
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Looks bangin' this far out though. GFS likes it for another 20-30cm so maybe a 25-35+cm on EC? Atleast the way it's looking right now.
     
  35. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Common feeling.
    Spag , while has plenty of red over us doesn't have that nodal / spike that we saw last week.
    Excuse the description but looks too flat . ?
    [​IMG]
     
  36. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    ^ SPAG Control 12z does have the nodal spike.
     
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  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    that says ridgey mcridge face.
     
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  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    all be it not particularly strong and a day later.
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    That fetch last week was phenomenal though. Struggle to get that again anytime soon IMO.
    This system likely has better moisture, and certainly is cold enough. With EC having snow down to ~800m on Wednesday.
     
  40. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    I don't think flat is necessarily bad per se so long as there's penetration
     
  41. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    That's what she said
     
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  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    If it's more nodal it would be colder due to the fetch
    That's what I'm thinking , posted same with concerns yesterday fwiw.
    Yes , I see the grey lines.
    Cheers all.
     
  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    of which there isn't really any in this instance. take your point though.
     
  44. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    There's enough. Just. Imo.

    Lack of fetch not great, but even on the 00z, ought to be cold enough. The 12z is betterer but.
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Pressure is looking too high too. I'll stand by yesterday's call RE ridging for the moment.
     
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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looking a bit cut-off in the latest GFS run.

    [​IMG]
     
  47. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    Yeah just a bit lol.
    [​IMG]
     
  48. jonathanc

    jonathanc Dedicated Member

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    That light green 546 line (have I got that right?) is a looooong way NNW of the blue 540 line.
     
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Disappearing on EC as well IMO

    [​IMG]

    Although there's no agreement really with GFS.
     
  50. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    All good it just mean it clears a bit quicker.

    Thats sort of what I was thinking anyway but still big falls from Friday to Monday.