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Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Jul 17, 2016.
And rightfully so. Textbook winter system.
Potentially 20-30cm of snow down to 800-900m
12Z on EC and GFS liking this one. An upgrade for EC IMO with a better position of the High giving the cold air a little more amplitude.
Of course there will be weather. Interschools.
I can only see out to Saturday 12z / 138hrs ?
i vote for merging threads given likelihood of consistent snowfall bridging date ranges
I think you're looking at 18Z, it's still loading...
Yep. Patience Grasshopper !
It's a long way out but it doesnt excite me that much. Chance of ridging = high. LWT not really on board either.
Spag not showing much (after Sunday), *at this stage.
There won't be powder, that's for sure.
-5 @ 850hPa... I wouldn't rule it out. Seems cold.
Never mind the science. I'm there at this time.
Looks Far-ken windy on EC IMO
Happy with ya ridge set-up mate?
Not the end of the world 'cause it's GFS but certainly a nail in the coffin. EC will tell all tonight.
EC looks COLD. And finishing with some nice strong Southerly winds, which is shit for the resorts but good for the epic decents.
Moisture is alright, not great but the snow guns will be working hard
We want it where the guns are not.
Expect good quality snow but not a lot of it
I think that was the consensus was last week but we got way more.
When its nodal (rosberg waves) and cold I think we will get big snow falls.
When its not nodal and cold we get not much snow.
In my view anyway.
Well yes and no. Last system was not a big dump in the scheme of things. Eg the "season start" was a much bigger dump, but the quality of snow wasn't as good. But that was what was needed to get things going.
But the quicker it clears Tuesday or Wednesday or Thursday the better for the backcountry touring.
IMO going on EC alone, I'd say it looks around 40cm (+/- 10cm)
It depends were you were. Lower East faces have not look that good for a long time, e.g. The tree runs below the main range into the snowy river were fantastic, due to wind blow though.
Also last dump was mostly a single 12 hr event.
Anyway I have a theory with hypothesis A & B to be tested.
(A) When its Nodal (rosberg waves) and cold I think we will get big snow falls.
(B) When its Not nodal and cold we get not much snow.
For the last few years we have had these cold spells that were ridging and not so nodal. Good for snow making.
There still good numbers for this part of the dump.
But I am getting confused by the two dates.
yeh, I'm only talking about the last part of the system, 26th & 27th.
We'll see more earlier, but after some rain.
Im getting confused with the modelling.
Spag v EC ....
EC looking awesome this morning. GFS agrees. IMO.
Very well aligned this far out.
Did anyone order a Buller Special?!
Looking rather minty .
EC similar cut off low like last week.
Upon further inspection I probably should've said broadly aligned this far out...
EC looking better than GFS. And you'll get a true SW if we see EC unfold.
GFS positioning of high is not AS ideal. Still open to ridging IMO
Looks bangin' this far out though. GFS likes it for another 20-30cm so maybe a 25-35+cm on EC? Atleast the way it's looking right now.
Spag , while has plenty of red over us doesn't have that nodal / spike that we saw last week.
Excuse the description but looks too flat . ?
^ SPAG Control 12z does have the nodal spike.
that says ridgey mcridge face.
all be it not particularly strong and a day later.
That fetch last week was phenomenal though. Struggle to get that again anytime soon IMO.
This system likely has better moisture, and certainly is cold enough. With EC having snow down to ~800m on Wednesday.
I don't think flat is necessarily bad per se so long as there's penetration
That's what she said
If it's more nodal it would be colder due to the fetch
That's what I'm thinking , posted same with concerns yesterday fwiw.
Yes , I see the grey lines.
of which there isn't really any in this instance. take your point though.
There's enough. Just. Imo.
Lack of fetch not great, but even on the 00z, ought to be cold enough. The 12z is betterer but.
Pressure is looking too high too. I'll stand by yesterday's call RE ridging for the moment.
Looking a bit cut-off in the latest GFS run.
Yeah just a bit lol.
That light green 546 line (have I got that right?) is a looooong way NNW of the blue 540 line.
Disappearing on EC as well IMO
Although there's no agreement really with GFS.
All good it just mean it clears a bit quicker.
Thats sort of what I was thinking anyway but still big falls from Friday to Monday.