I am thinking 75cm all up and 30cm for this part of the system all up (Of course with Buller receiving 10-20% less unfortunately) IMO
In the year 2000, I remember in my 2nd season @buller why other resorts cracked 3m base when Buller managed to to struggle to it's 150cm base. From that season forward it was evident to me that on average Buller sees about 30-50% less snowfall than other resorts. Aspect, height & local geography make all the difference in Aus resorts.
This one looks OK on LWT this morning, but I still cant 100% trust it. Plenty of junk behind it coming up quick that may squash it.
This forecast is getting a bit old now. 10 am Tuesday. Can come back a bit better on the later run this arvo
00Z EC back on board. GFS still with it. Pressure's not all that healthy (1014hPa) to warrant anything significant but I still think there's potentially up to 15-20cm in this for Monday night/Tuesday AM.
My charts show that this system picked up a lot of warm air and moisture as it crossed South Africa, which has really dented its strength. I was kind of expecting this, but it looks like it's actually happened. As a result you're seeing higher pressures than what we would like, and more of a clipper system. I'm still holding out hope for it, but it's not looking big.
It appears that a cold pool from Wednesday Mornings Front gets cut off as the trailing high ridges underneath leaving a wanderer over Central NSW. Moisture is being fed in from a North/South Surface Trough tapping into North QLD. Similar to yesterdays system but with much colder uppers. Would be an interesting system to watch if it played out but I think the models are struggling to get a hold on Sunday, let alone Wednesday/Thursday.
I call that, so far out with lots of scenarios in the ensembles that it hardly knows the day of the week next Thursday. Come back to it on Sunday after these next two systems are 'done' and it'll look a little more realistic.
BOM seem to have a different view on it . What would be the freezing level early Tuesday as I want to drive to the ski-tube?
A potential bombing ECL bringing flooding to coast and random bouts of localised heavy snow depending on position of upper cold pool and moisture as it drifts towards the Tasman. Too much uncertainty to put much stock in this scenario for now!
Quick fire trip - mon/tues/wed whats gonna be best for buller I know i ask a fair bit but you guys are most consistent and reliable )
This one looks pretty avg at best, to me. Lots of movement in the models run-to-run and largely nothing more than a clipper. I for one, don't see 40cm in it. ~10cm at best for Wednesday IMO.
Spag was always showing it was " flat " westerly flow by mid week.. Bom 4 dayer still a pass , embedded troughs indicated. GFS still ok. EC showing the 1030 high wins after Tuesday Yr no agrees as you would expect. PSR calling 3 feet. Including today I'm feeling 2 foot by Wednesday morning. Most of it tomorrow chucking it on my head !
I like the fetch as stated yesterday. Just wish it would clear Thursday, but looks unlikely. This is actual at 10 am today.
I personally like the trough line over North East Indian Ocean. Those are some super-warm SST's fueling that thing (don't forget it's not monsoon season for indo...).
Ok lads listen up! Wednesday should be epic, We are expecting the cut off low to push up late in the evening as it passes over the great sandy desert, should pick up a heap of cold air from the bite as it heads across. Now lads keep an eye on the 540 line as it gets slightly trapped in between the 539 & the 541 lines, Just been in the blower to Jane and she thinks I'm crazy but just you lads watch. I'm tipping at least a metre from the snow guns on wombats rumble.
I think this is developing nicely and may deliver another 15cm or more, the sat picture is showing this has everything it needs to produce the goods.... watching with interest
