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Predictions 27-28th August - Clipper Front

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 23, 2020.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It might not be much but it's still there on paper, a quick front/trough through the South East Next Saturday/Sunday, to round out the month. Book ended by ridge influences either-side, it puts it in the 'weak' category for now.

    Good agreement amongst global models. As usual GFS the bullish one of the pick, right now.

    EC:
    [​IMG]

    GFS:
    [​IMG]

    EC Ensembles showing falls in the 3-5cm range at this point. The denominator will be the SAM outlook, if we see thing sink negatively we'll be looking at a more substantial system.

    AAO Ensembles outlook (GFS):
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOMs long range forecasting 110 k winds for Thredbo top station on the 29th
     
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  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Not bad 500 hPa temps on EC
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Worth noting is that EC Determs showing a much more bullish system. Take this with a grain of salt as divergence between determs & ensembles highlights the run-to-run variability in the LR at the moment:

    Determs:
     
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  5. derider

    derider Early Days

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    Dislike.

    Seriously though, the other long range forecasts show windspeeds of no more than 30-40. Why such a massive discrepancy? Is bom just trolling?
     
  6. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    This system looks nearly as cold as this current one imo!
    Another bit of low level snow and 10-20cm for bawbs imo
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM does not 'troll'.

    The West-East axis of the ridge is indicative of (strong +) zonal winds.
    Any system that makes it through the ridging has anomalous forcing so it's highly likely that this system will have particularly strong flow at resort level.

    It's simply BoM reading the play. Fair bump, play on.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah. Not even close.
     
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  9. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    For southern vic it looks pretty cold imo
    Not nearly as widespread obviously as this latest system
     
  10. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Just trying to get the froth level up and about pow ;)
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Determs this eve stalling it, and ridging it a bit more.
     
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  12. Kash

    Kash One of Us

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    100kp + winds @ Thredbo for Sunday. Ouch. Not great for the first day on the mountain with the kids! Might avoid Gunbarrell...
     
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  13. derider

    derider Early Days

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    So does this contradict bom's wind forecasts?

    Sorry you have to speak to me like to a baby, but I'm not at a stage where I can interpret EC Determs confidently (or at all). I like the wavy colours though.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not really, there looks to be some strong winds at resort level. But it’s still 6 days out and far from set in stone. Wait it out.
     
  15. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    What about pre-frontal temps? Are we going to get a wet start?
     
  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks confined to Southern Vic and TAS this morning on EC, so it doesn’t really matter.

    It does look like it’s getting warmer during this period though.
     
  17. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Much more of a marine service, but here are all the models from predict wind for that period.

     
  18. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Besides, a small 5cm fall plus wind = double/triple the accumulation on the best aspects.
     
  19. rakugaki

    rakugaki First Runs

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    system seems to have fallen of the face of the earth :(
     
  20. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    ? It was always a clipper
     
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  21. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still there on gfs.
     
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  22. rakugaki

    rakugaki First Runs

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  23. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    NSW Resorts Wind speeds from MetEye.

    70+kph from Saturday Lunchtime. Lasting till lunchtime Sunday.

    So currently. It will be very windy this weekend. Lots of wind hold at the resorts.


     
  24. derider

    derider Early Days

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    I think they’ve downgraded the wind for Saturday in the most recent update, though Sunday still looks far too windholdy for comfort.

    I choose to believe yr. no, who are only forecasting a “gentle breeze” on Saturday and a “fresh breeze” for Sunday.
     
  25. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is an excellent SA and Vicco surf system as it stands
     
  26. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking like a pre-frontal blob, and a bit messier with some warmth mixed in on latest GFS run. Pushing the 540 dam line southwards. Risky, struggling at this point to be a net gain??
     
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  27. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    We denizens of Lepersville are banned from surfing and skiing while stuck in level 4 lockdown.
     
  28. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mods ..can we please change the date range?
    This system is looking like a 10cm hard and pharst on the 27th August!
    [​IMG]
     
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  29. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yeah, I just noticed that on YR.No

     
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  30. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    WZ seem to think the first week in Sept. will bring some proper snow. We shall wait and see.
     
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  31. Adjum

    Adjum Hard Yards

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  32. derider

    derider Early Days

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    Lucas Hempton likes this.
  33. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    8-16cm Thurs night...
    Friday. Amaze
     
  34. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM PV this arvo says tmw night not Thursday nite.?

    either works
     
  35. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  36. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Addicted

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    I predict I will be giving observations from the lodge in North P
     
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  37. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Aahj here it is, nice little suprise if it comes off! Now if huey can delay it just a few h k it's, maybe 12 hours and maintain moderate wijds on saturday that'd be great. I'd like ro introdice my 7 and 9 year old to the joys of wind blown on saturday!
     
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  38. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Saturday looks warm.
    My spring Hoody is unpacked
     
  39. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, I’m up on the weekend too. T shirt under the ski jacket weather. I predict crowds .... and wind hold ;)
     
  40. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep seems you are right, got a bit excited by the prospect of westerly wind after a bit of snow! Spring sun and t-bars on a good cover is good to though.
     
  41. derider

    derider Early Days

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    The snow seems marginal. Yr no have downgraded the precipitation amount, and it's now "heavy sleet" on Thursday night. I guess it might be slightly warmer than they predicted yesterday.
     
  42. Vandans

    Vandans Addicted

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    Has everyone gone to sleep. BOM 4 Day charts are up and a surprise for Sunday
     
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  43. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Showed up on YR.no and JaneB's this morning too

     
  44. ShavedBadger

    ShavedBadger One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Some fresh snow the night before I hit the slopes? Yes please! :)
     
  45. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'll buy that for a dollar.
     
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  46. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    5-10cm (resorts) on EC atm
     
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  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 18Z run on Meteologix was a downgrade from 12Z.
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
    Weather predictions for this period only.
     
  49. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Kash, Jonathan_P and ShavedBadger like this.