It might not be much but it's still there on paper, a quick front/trough through the South East Next Saturday/Sunday, to round out the month. Book ended by ridge influences either-side, it puts it in the 'weak' category for now. Good agreement amongst global models. As usual GFS the bullish one of the pick, right now. EC: GFS: EC Ensembles showing falls in the 3-5cm range at this point. The denominator will be the SAM outlook, if we see thing sink negatively we'll be looking at a more substantial system. AAO Ensembles outlook (GFS):
Worth noting is that EC Determs showing a much more bullish system. Take this with a grain of salt as divergence between determs & ensembles highlights the run-to-run variability in the LR at the moment: Determs:
Dislike. Seriously though, the other long range forecasts show windspeeds of no more than 30-40. Why such a massive discrepancy? Is bom just trolling?
This system looks nearly as cold as this current one imo! Another bit of low level snow and 10-20cm for bawbs imo
BoM does not 'troll'. The West-East axis of the ridge is indicative of (strong +) zonal winds. Any system that makes it through the ridging has anomalous forcing so it's highly likely that this system will have particularly strong flow at resort level. It's simply BoM reading the play. Fair bump, play on.
100kp + winds @ Thredbo for Sunday. Ouch. Not great for the first day on the mountain with the kids! Might avoid Gunbarrell...
So does this contradict bom's wind forecasts? Sorry you have to speak to me like to a baby, but I'm not at a stage where I can interpret EC Determs confidently (or at all). I like the wavy colours though.
Not really, there looks to be some strong winds at resort level. But it’s still 6 days out and far from set in stone. Wait it out.
Looks confined to Southern Vic and TAS this morning on EC, so it doesn’t really matter. It does look like it’s getting warmer during this period though.
Ahh sorry. It's mia on http://www.janebunn.net/perisher and https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,2020-08-29-18,-36.375,148.380,11 Im just panicking and looking for comfort in the arms of pretty pictures.
NSW Resorts Wind speeds from MetEye. 70+kph from Saturday Lunchtime. Lasting till lunchtime Sunday. So currently. It will be very windy this weekend. Lots of wind hold at the resorts.
I think they’ve downgraded the wind for Saturday in the most recent update, though Sunday still looks far too windholdy for comfort. I choose to believe yr. no, who are only forecasting a “gentle breeze” on Saturday and a “fresh breeze” for Sunday.
Looking like a pre-frontal blob, and a bit messier with some warmth mixed in on latest GFS run. Pushing the 540 dam line southwards. Risky, struggling at this point to be a net gain??
Mods ..can we please change the date range? This system is looking like a 10cm hard and pharst on the 27th August!
Arctic Blast with possible thundersnow reported from : https://www.9news.com.au/national/a...adelaide/3021344d-27bf-4b64-a5e4-8f1f4bbc1ec0
Aahj here it is, nice little suprise if it comes off! Now if huey can delay it just a few h k it's, maybe 12 hours and maintain moderate wijds on saturday that'd be great. I'd like ro introdice my 7 and 9 year old to the joys of wind blown on saturday!
Yes, I’m up on the weekend too. T shirt under the ski jacket weather. I predict crowds .... and wind hold
Yep seems you are right, got a bit excited by the prospect of westerly wind after a bit of snow! Spring sun and t-bars on a good cover is good to though.
The snow seems marginal. Yr no have downgraded the precipitation amount, and it's now "heavy sleet" on Thursday night. I guess it might be slightly warmer than they predicted yesterday.
WZ and BOM are predicting snow down to 1100 m. in parts of Vic. today. http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/mountbawbaw.shtml
