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Predictions 27-31 May - 2019 Kick Off System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, May 19, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Starting to come around now, with all major models signaling a strong push in from the Southern Ocean, through the SE on the 27/28th.
    There's also the potential for a clipper on the 25th, but it's rounded out with a strong ridge so it's all white noise for now IMO.

    At >200 hours out it's no surprise there's considerable divergence on this thing, but the writing is on the wall for me.
    GFS going for a strong push, EC for a cut off low forming the bight south of Adelaide. The Canuck favouring a more ridgey Southerly burst - quick and light.

    Moisture looks plentiful across all models. Timing of the cold air will be the key over the next for 4-5 days of runs.

    IMO, the GFS scenario is not only more favourable but the progression is far better. EC's early peak is a bit of worry.

    GFS:


    EC:
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    N.B. I don't hold much hope for the snowmaking headway Thredbo & Perisher has made in the last week... I think there's likely to be some good pre-frontal falls ahead of the main front, thanks to the NW'ly feed ahead of it.
     
  3. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Been showing early peak for a few runs (even over WA sometimes) but still very interesting given the dates...
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, I think it's scenario is open to ridging eastwards, yet.
     
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  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    The EC scenario is looking okay with that system coming in on the 29/30 May.
    Ideally you want it further to the south, but I think it is downplaying the influence of the high behind it.

    26th system will probably remain relatively weak snow wise. Will be interesting to see how much moisture is on it, for the farmers sake.
    And of course there will be the big system behind it, I agree that the GFS scenario looks better on paper at this range. You may see something that is a bit in between the two.

    Last thing to note: GFS throws in a third system on the 31st, looks ridiculously ridgey, pretty ludicrous IMO.
     
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  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS showing a reasonable band of healthy mixing ratios ( a brisker increase is desirable ) - Corresponding Vertical Velocity plot @ 700 hPa showing good adiabatic lifting/ cooling thanks to rapidly descending pressure gradients .
     
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  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  8. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'm still scarred from 2016 - the year of the WA peak haha
     
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  9. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah the ensembles lead me to believe the Determs not even close
     
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  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Shes a sleepy trough axis on ACCESS- G .
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS paints an
    Perhaps you're ref'ing the 25th?
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    A good reason to love the 26-30th May period.
    [​IMG]
     
  14. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    28th to 31st look good on Spag.

     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah that looks far more plausible than EC 12z.
    I'd predict that it goes that way too either today or tomorrow.
     
  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    No. Looks lazy to me.
     
  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    That doesn't really look lazy to me in terms of uppers. It's probably peaking a bit early though.

    We will have to wait for full progression IMO.
     
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  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    2 more days of Majors fumbling around in the dark should see some initial conditions data excluded from the analysis process - smooth out the noise.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looking much better this evening on the 00z run.
    BIG
    [​IMG]
     
  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    A sign of beauty to come, going the way of GFS as foreshadowed.
    The uppers are really quite cold in the Bight.
    Just need EC Determ to actually show the full system progression, and we can start to look at the details.
     
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  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Early peak and slide potential still worries me a bit but it does have appeal .
     
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  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That high is down in Tony Bullimore territory.
    Not really a ridger..
    I'm worried it may get cutoff.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dat fkn trailing high tho. Damn gurl.
    If that SE QLD high chills a bit and fades offshore, this sucker is going full-blown north.
     
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  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    FV3 is talking about 30-50cm too

    I know it's very early, but scenarios like the ones we are starting to see head in that direction.
     
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  28. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki Addicted

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    For comparison purposes.
    If we manage to score 30cm from this potential system I will be me more than happy. It would then give the snowmakers a base to build upon. I would love to see more, I just like to temper my enthusiasm especially as the last system produced very little in the way of snow and promised a lot at even 5 days out, plus this system has the added curse of occurring in the date range of the infamous May 2000 event.
     
  29. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki Addicted

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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC and GFS have conflicting MJO forecasts for the period.
     
  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Longwave/nodes has been on this period for ages, via LWT indicators and the RRWT modelling.
    GFS SAM is quite spread out at the period, but it is more positive than we would like.
    The MJO is not great either.
    One of the big indicators of this was -AAM or less zonal winds at this latitude. This means more chances of disrupting activity, such as big lows. So I think that has compensated for a lack of tropical support here.
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06z
    Shaking hands with EC
     
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  33. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    nice continent cooler :)
     
  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    FV3 06 looking spectacular.
     
  35. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki Addicted

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    Thanks all for the info. :thumbs:
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still getting the early peak out of EC this morning, much like yesterday.

    GFS has the lead up on trend. Post 30th is a big mess though.
    We forge on.
     
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  37. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Why do i get massive vibe whenever i see 28 May? 19 years on and the vibe is still strong.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Y2K says G'day.
    [​IMG]
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS upgraded & mildly interested in GFS this morning:


    But CMC is the clincher for me today... Big and burley. IMO I think we'll see EC come around proper on this arvo's 00Z run.
    [​IMG]
     
  40. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Geezeez Christ my first thought seeing that was that it was the latest synoptic update for next weeks system...…....
     
  41. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Model runs seem to be gradually dropping the pressure over SE Aust as we get closer. My expectation was that we'd be sitting 1015, 1010h if we were lucky with ridging out of a quick moving cold front that kicked off snowmaking season proper. Now, maybe something better in the making.
     
  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Doctor likes a composite view of FV3 parameters. Thats a lot of snow on the ground.
     
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  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    It is looking like low 1000s for SE Australia for this period at the moment.
    It's looking pretty good.
     
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  44. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    More than 60cm. That's quite the season starter.
     
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  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 12Z is still clutching onto 2 seperate events though.
     
  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. Undies

    Undies Premature Pool Room Person Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tell 'im he's dreaming.
     
  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 18z has three, if you are counting the early days of june, four seperate coldfronts.
     
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  49. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think it is something worth looking at more in detail in the next few upcoming days.
    The models don't have proper convergence, so the numbers are just having a look at various scenarios
     
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  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    At least there's something to look at, some weather to talk about.