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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 19, 2019.
I predict that Sat loop and the Radar are looking like a thing of beauty
Holy moley, Tuesday night into Wednesday AM looks Amazeballs on the charts. Multiple fronts/troughs. I would say easily 30-50cm at Perisher in it just within this period alone!!! Absolutely incredible system, easily going to rival May 2000
This will be one for the record books folks, keep a copy of this in the archives
I just cant see this coming off? Having trouble with that 30cm today..shhh
Well Deptho is out to play, so its official
BOM 3 Day totals for 24hr period Tue 10pm to Wed 10pm are really tasty for NSW!
These are yesterday's. Lets see what today's charts show, I can't imagine too much of a change based on the model runs this morning.
I'm a believer!
We'll let that one slide given it's the first of the season, mate.
I predict that by next weekend there will be enough snow at PV to open Zali's run. You can do it Pete. Think of the publicity.
Love a bit of chart porn.
When this is all said and done, I recon we'll be seeing totals up to 90+cm in some places IMO.
Winters Wildcat will be set loose tomorrow night IMO. Probably not a good time to pitch a tent on the MR.
10am Tue to 10am Wed :o
00z GFS on Wednesday afternoon has 700 HPa temps of -15c - that's really putting us in the freezer. Not so sure about precip though....
Knockin' all our Storm Tots out the ballpark!
BOM: Tues Thredbo 25-40mm, substantial upgrade.
Only fractionally from yesterday HERE
I think the snow level on the NSW BOM is ambitious.
However its going to puke from front valley up.
Mind you. Those heavy events can have a habit of transcending FL.
On topic: looks like more small cells heading NE from the Bay towards Baw Baw & southern hills.
General comment: C’mon snow gurus - I know most of you ski NSW & rarely cross the ‘Rugby/AFL curtain’ but do you think you could just occasionally include the Vic Alps in your prognoses and comments? It is after all ‘ski.com.au’ **
There! Ranty - Tanty over for a short while!
**Oh and what about poor Tassie?
Vic has got a mention in all the forecasts here? Pretty sure jelly's have included a vic and nsw specific forecast??
Generally, you're talking a negligible variance of maybe 5-10cm, eitherway. No biggie, Sanchez!
We try our best
There are comments aplenty made about Victoria in earlier pages.
Mm fair enough & perhaps laboring the point.
Does read like the Snowies forum at times - & I add I love skiing NSW & its (usually) drier deeper snow as often as I can!
Thats pre QBW lift opening ingredients right there
Victoria has @janesweather
Stay on topic
Axsr and gfs both still hang onto 528 thickness close to vic coastline for later Wednesday imo
Looks like Buller is gonna miss out on this major dump tomorrow and Wednesday.
Where is that prediction????
No one is actually saying that.
This is literally one of the best weeks of the year. The vibe of the forum is through the roof.
Please stop ruining it with misinformation.
Is Buller going to be wet before the southwester kicks in?
True but BoM also predict the snow fall level not the settling and accumulation level. So totally agree a 1200m forecast snow should settle to the bottom of the ridge.
From memory May 2000 left us with an 80cm on-the-ground packed base when the storm ended. I think we’ll come close but not quite get there. Love to be wrong...
There will be rain on the lower slopes, think bottom of the Southside lifts and bottom of Tirol.
The upper slopes should be fine.
This is from the top of Baldy, around 1715m:
Like I said, there will be rain on lower slopes.
Should be cold enough for upper slopes, when the wind turns around and then weakens off.
From Snowy Hydro - 77 cm on June 1st at Spencers -1830 m. 70 cm at deep Ck at 1600m and 54cm at 3 Mile Dam will be a useful comparison for the 1500 m levels..... W
Yes the interesting thing about May 2000 was the quantity of snow down low .. I remember taking my infant son to the playground at Thredbo Village , quite deep in snow at the time.
I am excited
This is nothing like May2000 IMO
Its very good though
Major models in good alignment now.
OCF: 10am Tues to 10am Wed
BoM's WATL (EC & OCF/AXS-R):
EC's 24 Hour QPF to Wednesday 10AM
looks a little wet tmw early evening. should be good Smigs up.
Still looking like snow to about 1500m in Vic, 1600m in NSW resorts tomorrow PM when the prefrontal kicks. Could be some unhappy campers in the obs thread this time tomorrow....
BOM's throwing around 'snow to 1200m' but this on eitherside of the bellcurve in temps around 3-5pm. Very critical to consider - when looking at progged precip.
I was just flicking through the hourly forecasts on earthshool - you can see the temps warming up tmw throughout the day - then the moisture arrives and cools down again tmw evening. just seen this warm up so often. but it's all good a few hours later with plenty more precip for wed and cold air. so maybe 40-50cms not 70-80cm overall at the end of this week's events.
Since 12Z this morning, EC has scaled things back for the temps tomorrow eve.
Here's EC's Perisher skew-T for 10pm (!) tomorrow.
PWAT: 1.4cm (perhaps >10mm/3 hr)
Wind @ resort level 30 knots might bring some cooling down to ~1800m
Very little upper level support
Shallow, elevated and virtually 'dry' DGZ
It's all mid to low level moisture, with very little ability to deliver any/much snow in the 3-midnight window tomorrow below 1600/1700m IMO.
are there any other gauge readings for PV area from today - to cross check against BOM's AWS readings PV today - it's meant to be all weather (unlike Thredbo TS) - but sadly failed totally last year.
There's Charlotte Pass's HERE. But you'll need the Davis WX App to cross ref hourly data.
It's pretty close to Perisher's readings though. Typically, the VantagePro2 handles these kinda conditions just fine in a place like CP village.
Yeah it’s certainly looking to be not so great at the lower resorts, and lower Thredbo/Hotham/Buller slopes. But there should be 10-25cm at the backend to help repatch the loss.
What sort of amount of time will we see the snow fall to the 600m level?
yes there sure looks to be a solid punch of cold precip Wed AM onwards.
For your location, probably about 7-9am Weds, and then again after 4pm or so.
Refer to the Mount Tassie yr.no.