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Predictions 27-31 May - 2019 Kick Off System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 19, 2019.

  1. toughnut

    toughnut Hard Yards

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    I predict that Sat loop and the Radar are looking like a thing of beauty
     
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  2. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Holy moley, Tuesday night into Wednesday AM looks Amazeballs on the charts. Multiple fronts/troughs. I would say easily 30-50cm at Perisher in it just within this period alone!!! Absolutely incredible system, easily going to rival May 2000
     
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  3. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    This will be one for the record books folks, keep a copy of this in the archives ;)

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    I just cant see this coming off? Having trouble with that 30cm today..shhh
    Well Deptho is out to play, so its official
     

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  5. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Massive!!!
     
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  6. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    BOM 3 Day totals for 24hr period Tue 10pm to Wed 10pm are really tasty for NSW!
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    These are yesterday's. Lets see what today's charts show, I can't imagine too much of a change based on the model runs this morning.
     
  8. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm a believer!
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    We'll let that one slide given it's the first of the season, mate.
     
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  10. Frisko

    Frisko Hard Yards

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    I predict that by next weekend there will be enough snow at PV to open Zali's run. You can do it Pete. Think of the publicity.
     
  11. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Love a bit of chart porn.

    When this is all said and done, I recon we'll be seeing totals up to 90+cm in some places IMO.
     
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  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Winters Wildcat will be set loose tomorrow night IMO. Probably not a good time to pitch a tent on the MR.
     
  13. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    10am Tue to 10am Wed :o

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    00z GFS on Wednesday afternoon has 700 HPa temps of -15c - that's really putting us in the freezer. Not so sure about precip though....
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Knockin' all our Storm Tots out the ballpark!
     
  16. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    BOM: Tues Thredbo 25-40mm, substantial upgrade.
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Only fractionally from yesterday HERE
     
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  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think the snow level on the NSW BOM is ambitious.
    However its going to puke from front valley up.
    Mind you. Those heavy events can have a habit of transcending FL.
     
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  19. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    On topic: looks like more small cells heading NE from the Bay towards Baw Baw & southern hills.

    General comment: C’mon snow gurus - I know most of you ski NSW & rarely cross the ‘Rugby/AFL curtain’ but do you think you could just occasionally include the Vic Alps in your prognoses and comments? It is after all ‘ski.com.au’ **

    There! Ranty - Tanty over for a short while!

    **Oh and what about poor Tassie?
     
  20. xuěboarder

    xuěboarder One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Vic has got a mention in all the forecasts here? Pretty sure jelly's have included a vic and nsw specific forecast??
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Generally, you're talking a negligible variance of maybe 5-10cm, eitherway. No biggie, Sanchez!
     
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  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    We try our best :thumbs:
    There are comments aplenty made about Victoria in earlier pages.
     
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  23. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Mm fair enough & perhaps laboring the point.

    Does read like the Snowies forum at times - & I add I love skiing NSW & its (usually) drier deeper snow as often as I can!
     
  24. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats pre QBW lift opening ingredients right there
     
  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Victoria has @janesweather
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic
     
  27. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Axsr and gfs both still hang onto 528 thickness close to vic coastline for later Wednesday imo
     
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  28. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

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    Looks like Buller is gonna miss out on this major dump tomorrow and Wednesday.
     
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Where is that prediction????
    No one is actually saying that.

    This is literally one of the best weeks of the year. The vibe of the forum is through the roof.
    Please stop ruining it with misinformation.
     
  30. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    Is Buller going to be wet before the southwester kicks in?
     
  31. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    True but BoM also predict the snow fall level not the settling and accumulation level. So totally agree a 1200m forecast snow should settle to the bottom of the ridge.
     
  32. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    From memory May 2000 left us with an 80cm on-the-ground packed base when the storm ended. I think we’ll come close but not quite get there. Love to be wrong...
     
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  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    There will be rain on the lower slopes, think bottom of the Southside lifts and bottom of Tirol.

    The upper slopes should be fine.

    This is from the top of Baldy, around 1715m:
     
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  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    *westerly
     
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  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Like I said, there will be rain on lower slopes.
    Should be cold enough for upper slopes, when the wind turns around and then weakens off.
     
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  36. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    From Snowy Hydro - 77 cm on June 1st at Spencers -1830 m. 70 cm at deep Ck at 1600m and 54cm at 3 Mile Dam will be a useful comparison for the 1500 m levels..... W
     
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  37. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes the interesting thing about May 2000 was the quantity of snow down low .. I remember taking my infant son to the playground at Thredbo Village , quite deep in snow at the time.
     
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  38. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am excited
     
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  39. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is nothing like May2000 IMO

    Its very good though
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Major models in good alignment now.

    OCF: 10am Tues to 10am Wed
    [​IMG]

    BoM's WATL (EC & OCF/AXS-R):


    EC's 24 Hour QPF to Wednesday 10AM
     
  41. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    looks a little wet tmw early evening. should be good Smigs up.
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still looking like snow to about 1500m in Vic, 1600m in NSW resorts tomorrow PM when the prefrontal kicks. Could be some unhappy campers in the obs thread this time tomorrow....

    BOM's throwing around 'snow to 1200m' but this on eitherside of the bellcurve in temps around 3-5pm. Very critical to consider - when looking at progged precip.
     
  43. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was just flicking through the hourly forecasts on earthshool - you can see the temps warming up tmw throughout the day - then the moisture arrives and cools down again tmw evening. just seen this warm up so often. but it's all good a few hours later with plenty more precip for wed and cold air. so maybe 40-50cms not 70-80cm overall at the end of this week's events.
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Since 12Z this morning, EC has scaled things back for the temps tomorrow eve.
    Here's EC's Perisher skew-T for 10pm (!) tomorrow.
    • FL ~2100m
    • PWAT: 1.4cm (perhaps >10mm/3 hr)
    • Wind @ resort level 30 knots might bring some cooling down to ~1800m
    • Very little upper level support
    • Shallow, elevated and virtually 'dry' DGZ
    It's all mid to low level moisture, with very little ability to deliver any/much snow in the 3-midnight window tomorrow below 1600/1700m IMO.
     
  45. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    are there any other gauge readings for PV area from today - to cross check against BOM's AWS readings PV today - it's meant to be all weather (unlike Thredbo TS) - but sadly failed totally last year.
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's Charlotte Pass's HERE. But you'll need the Davis WX App to cross ref hourly data.
    It's pretty close to Perisher's readings though. Typically, the VantagePro2 handles these kinda conditions just fine in a place like CP village.
     
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  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah it’s certainly looking to be not so great at the lower resorts, and lower Thredbo/Hotham/Buller slopes. But there should be 10-25cm at the backend to help repatch the loss.
     
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  48. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    What sort of amount of time will we see the snow fall to the 600m level?
     
  49. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    yes there sure looks to be a solid punch of cold precip Wed AM onwards.
     
  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    For your location, probably about 7-9am Weds, and then again after 4pm or so.
    Refer to the Mount Tassie yr.no.
     
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