1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW REGISTRATIONS

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Predictions 27-31 May - 2019 Kick Off System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 19, 2019.

  1. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    5,745
    Likes Received:
    3,019
    Location:
    Wollongong
    True. Same same but different :D

    May 2000 was a very unique cut off scenario weather event where that combo of elements came together perfectly. This system is also quite unique in that it’s timing could not be more perfect to kick start the season, but more your traditional conveyor belt type system of fronts. Not sure what you could compare this system to, but in terms of cold, low level snow and a fair drop of it, yep certainly similar to late May 2000 but not quite as unique. Regardless, at the end of the day, two perfectly timed large dumps of snow to setup what we hope will be another incredible season in Oz :cool:
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,762
    Likes Received:
    21,258
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Ex has backed off previous numbers for the back end of this system tomorrow
     
  3. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    29,795
    Likes Received:
    25,315
    Location:
    woonona
    EC?

    AXS-R has gone bigger
     
    POW_hungry and FourSquare04 like this.
  4. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,487
    Likes Received:
    2,987
    Location:
    Gerroa
    Yer no looks fine this morning. Just those temps later today.
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  5. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    5,745
    Likes Received:
    3,019
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Yes, some warming to come today with Perisher expected to get to +2 but looks like bulk of the precip will arrive afternoon and into the evening so should be fine :thumbs:
     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    29,795
    Likes Received:
    25,315
    Location:
    woonona
  7. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    58,028
    Likes Received:
    26,836
    Location:
    East Coast
  8. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    5,745
    Likes Received:
    3,019
    Location:
    Wollongong
  9. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2005
    Messages:
    1,563
    Likes Received:
    2,433
    Location:
    Manly, Sydney
    Back end yes, but before that the numbers are still on fairly track from midday today to early tomorrow morning IMO
     
    POW_hungry and FourSquare04 like this.
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    29,795
    Likes Received:
    25,315
    Location:
    woonona
    I never take notice of the temps on Snowy BOM forecasts
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  11. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,487
    Likes Received:
    2,987
    Location:
    Gerroa
    Just nervous that the temps will do their usual trick of creeping up. Yr. no is often 2 degrees too cold on its models. But all looks good for this next round.
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,762
    Likes Received:
    21,258
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    All the action above >1600m today.
    Would rather it fell on the back end as the temps are just right.
     
    Claude Cat, SMSkier and SAsurfa like this.
  13. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2005
    Messages:
    1,563
    Likes Received:
    2,433
    Location:
    Manly, Sydney
    I see, yes agree but I'm happy with anything over 1600m :)
     
    SMSkier and FourSquare04 like this.
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,762
    Likes Received:
    21,258
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I thought you might be.:thumbs:
    Looks real good for 'there'.
     
    FourSquare04 and SAsurfa like this.
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,762
    Likes Received:
    21,258
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Upper levels are marginal today.
    Tomorrow they're def good to go.
     
    Karicta and FourSquare04 like this.
  16. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    29,795
    Likes Received:
    25,315
    Location:
    woonona
    Even though the uppers look so so...
    I'm not really seeing much sun... Just seems to be windy and cloudy af..
     
  17. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,023
    Likes Received:
    4,001
    700 temps remain our friend for today.

    Only an hour or 3 where it looks marginal this arvo so I’m hopeful of mainly snow at resort level, wintery mix down lower (1400-1600) for those marginal hour/s.
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    29,795
    Likes Received:
    25,315
    Location:
    woonona
    Honestly . I thought the sun would be out -lel
    [​IMG]
     
    whether, skiflat and FourSquare04 like this.
  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    29,795
    Likes Received:
    25,315
    Location:
    woonona
    JANE'S SNOW FORECAST DISCUSSION


    Updated: Tuesday morning.

    The next big burst of snow starts later today.



    Here is what to expect:

    TUESDAY: Dry in the morning. Snow showers tending to persistent snow in the late afternoon and evening. 0 to 20 cm.

    -> Snow only down to 1500m, 1600m at times, then rapidly lowering overnight.
    WEDNESDAY: Persistent snow. Much colder. 10 to 30 cm.

    -> Snow down to 800m by dawn, lowering to 600m.
    THURSDAY: Persistent snow over southern resorts, chance of light snow further north. Up to 10cm in south.

    -> Snow down to 800m at first, slowly rising to 1200m.
    FRIDAY: Generally dry.

    SATURDAY: Dry.



    Outlook:

    Potential for 5 to 20 cm of snow from later Sunday to Tuesday.

    Then the potential for another system from WEDNESDAY next week.
     
  20. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2003
    Messages:
    2,002
    Likes Received:
    534
    Location:
    Sydney
    Looks wet(ish) this evening - I find it hard to see much accumulation below 1700m in NSW until much later tonight - good for base building above that. A bit of moisture never hurt when you are trying to set and consolidate an early season base after good snowfalls, even better that it will be followed by a cold blast with good snowfalls and primo snowmaking opportunities for a few night afterwards.

    I'm doubting the severity of the cold blast in NSW, northward progressions seems a little stunted to me until late in the period when moisture has gone. Thursday certainly looks cold but will Wednesday be cold enough for much snow below 1000m? Excited to be returning to Thredbo for a full season for the first time in years though!
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  21. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    7,700
    Likes Received:
    13,609
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    WZ are indicating that it might get ugly tonight at Perisher

     
  22. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2009
    Messages:
    2,646
    Likes Received:
    1,795
    Location:
    Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
    Meteye = much the same temps.
     
  23. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,649
    Likes Received:
    18,139
    Location:
    South Co.
    Doesn't matter if it gets a little warm today folks.
    ( as it stands we're at neg 1.7 ish)
    we're talking about the base .
    so will actually help with compaction and re-set. IMO.
    add on another layer tomorrow , will hopefully bond, pack and consolidate itself as another solid layer again.
    It's a looong way till September / October so firmer this first few storms pack down and set / re-set, the better will be long term 2019 snowpack .
    IMO.
     
    #623 nfip, May 28, 2019
    Last edited: May 28, 2019
  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    29,795
    Likes Received:
    25,315
    Location:
    woonona
    Tonight at 10pm- 850hpa is at 1366m and around 3 degrees.
    Thats the warmest point...
     
    POW_hungry and nfip like this.
  25. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    [​IMG]


    Caused I wanted to be LIKED. LOL How is the speckles.
    [​IMG]
     
  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,303
    Likes Received:
    16,319
    Location:
    Canberra
    EC Rapid . The Doctors predicted totals from 6 am today.
     
    doogasnow likes this.
  27. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    923
    Likes Received:
    451
    Wow gfs on this arvo run looks very cold with I’d say possibly and upgrade with 528 thickness pushing inland a fraction more and a fair size cold pool at that thickness imo
     
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,303
    Likes Received:
    16,319
    Location:
    Canberra
    4pm, 10pm and 4am Looking not too shabby @ 700 hPa imo.
     
    SMSkier and ecowain like this.
  29. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2006
    Messages:
    14,998
    Likes Received:
    23,332
    Location:
    Blue Mtns, 1100M.
    900M forecast for NSW CT’s later tomorrow.
     
    davidg, SMSkier and POW_hungry like this.
  30. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    7,700
    Likes Received:
    13,609
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    BoM 4 Dayer

    [​IMG]

    Blizzard Warning for NSW

    IDN21037
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    New South Wales

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    Severe Weather Warning
    for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in Illawarra and parts of South Coast, Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes and Snowy Mountains Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 4:31 pm Tuesday, 28 May 2019.

    VIGOROUS WINDS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY


    Weather Situation: A cold front is expected to cross the state during Wednesday. Increased winds are forecast to develop as the front approaches later today and continue into Wednesday as the front passes through.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 km/h with peak gusts of 90 km/h, are expected to develop late this evening or early Wednesday about the coastal ranges of the Central Tablelands (including the Blue Mountains), Southern Tablelands, Southern Highlands (Illawarra) and parts of the Snowy Mountains district. Winds along the Illawarra coast are expected to reach DAMAGING strength from Wednesday morning.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 80 to 90 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 125 km/h, are expected across the Alpine peaks above 1900 metres later today. BLIZZARD conditions are likely. The NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service recommends that back country travel be postponed until conditions improve.

    Locations which may be affected include Wollongong, Nowra, Bowral, Katoomba, Goulburn and Bombala.

    Observations from Monday 27th:

    High Range AWS in the Illawarra gusted to 90 km/h at 11:30am .

    Kurnell AWS in Botany Bay gusted to 90 km/h at 12:25pm.

    Sydney Airport gusted to 90 km/h at 12:42pm.

    Newcastle Nobbys Head gusted to 95 km/h at 2:51pm.

    Bellambi gusted to 90 km/h at 6:25pm.

    The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
    * Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
    * Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
    * Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
    * Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid (131 388), Endeavour Energy (131 003), Essential Energy (132 080) or Evoenergy (131 093) as shown on your power bill.
    * For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.


    The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Tuesday.

    Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

    Alps Forecast



    Thredbo Top Station Forecast

     
    SMSkier and Claude Cat like this.
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    29,795
    Likes Received:
    25,315
    Location:
    woonona
    Is there a more windy large city in Australia than Wollongong?
    I swear its nuts down here.
     
    Arsas and SAsurfa like this.
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,576
    Likes Received:
    49,893
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Perth / Freo.
    2nd windiest city in the southern hemisphere after Wellington.
     
    DiscoStuAU, cookieman and POW_hungry like this.
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,303
    Likes Received:
    16,319
    Location:
    Canberra
    DLShear giving 90 Knots a nudge 10 am tomorow.
     
  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    29,795
    Likes Received:
    25,315
    Location:
    woonona
    I knew Wellington would be first LOL
    Freo doctor in summer and cold fronts in winter I guess.
     
  35. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    7,700
    Likes Received:
    13,609
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    Adelaide
     
  36. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    29,795
    Likes Received:
    25,315
    Location:
    woonona
    Unstable AF.
    Also doozy orographic effects in play I bet.
     
    Kletterer likes this.
  37. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    29,795
    Likes Received:
    25,315
    Location:
    woonona
    I'm actually finding it hard to beat the 141km/h (gusts) winds recorded in Wollongong (at Least in Australian cities)

    Disregarding cyclones etc
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,576
    Likes Received:
    49,893
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Shocking easterlies in summer too.
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,576
    Likes Received:
    49,893
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Perth gets plenty of cyclonic winds. (128 kph during Alby)
    There's also the aspect of sustained wind vs gusts.
    Anyway, we digress. Topic for the general weather threads.
     
    Donzah likes this.
  40. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    19,423
    Likes Received:
    11,216
    Location:
    Top drawer
    We need an affectionate name for that high. It's been sending cold bursts to us all week, and just when it looks like we're done, it backs up and sends a couple more for the beginning of next week by the looks. Do love hims very much.
     
    DidSurfNowSki and skimax like this.
  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,303
    Likes Received:
    16,319
    Location:
    Canberra
    4 am Temps at approx 1360 metre level
     
  42. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    21,733
    Likes Received:
    14,164
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
  43. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    May 15, 2014
    Messages:
    1,676
    Likes Received:
    2,600
    Temps warming up everywhere on the mainland. A little too much dripping on the webcams for my liking.
     
  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,303
    Likes Received:
    16,319
    Location:
    Canberra
    4 am again. Should be ok by 1 - 2 am imo.
     
    SAsurfa likes this.
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,762
    Likes Received:
    21,258
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Normal programing resumes around 11pm/12am Vic/NSW respectively.
    IMO
     
  46. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,487
    Likes Received:
    2,987
    Location:
    Gerroa
    nullschool shows plenty of moisture with the cold still to come. But we have seen nights like this many many times before 1-2 degrees difference maketh one sad or smiley face
     
    SMSkier likes this.
  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    29,795
    Likes Received:
    25,315
    Location:
    woonona
    Pretty much
     
  48. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,560
    Likes Received:
    2,112
    Location:
    Tooma , NSW
    Good rain spilling now ,soft small drops ,very consistent for the past hour (3mm in the hour),the type that blow up into good soft snow at the top of the hill. Likey likeyalot.
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,762
    Likes Received:
    21,258
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I am going for a 10am fire up of the guns @ Perisher/Thredders.
    A good little sleep in for the gang...
     
    Snow Blowey, rocketboy and SAsurfa like this.
  50. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,895
    Likes Received:
    4,245
    Location:
    Melbourne Australia
    Snow depth by QBW >2000