Predictions 27th - 30th of July... The Beast

Continue, I’m listening

 

Extend it a few days and you have the next system period after the 23rd system IMO.
LWT aligns roughly, but progression may change.
Indications of Phase 3/4 MJO in the region too.
Big spike in the AAO though.

 

Lets see some charts...

 

There are none... not even GFS.
It’s really just a thought bubble of logical progression.
But I wouldn’t have thought thread-worthy TBH.

 

The BEAST!

 

Cute reverse jetstream.
Should rename it the pincher.

 

Any tips for the first at Flemington this Saturday?

 

EC ens look ridgey mc ridge face

GFS says WA peaking / blocking / slider.

AXS is not on the page yet at +240
SDS is alive n well ?
watch this space.

 

That Jetstream behavior and progression that kicks off in 2-3 days time is very volatile/ erratic even for this time of year. Add an extra dose of low skill into the equation atm imo.

 

haha.. I never thought I’d be clickbaited in a weather forum..

 

Is this more likely lined up for Lakes Sth Island NZ late July?

 

Nothing I've seen in this date range, not really anything for NZ.
Points for giving it a go, but you need more than a AXS-G run at a gazzilion hours out to call this stuff.

 

Even though we just had quite a bit.

EPS on the whole isn’t really game.
GEFS shows some very vague support.

It’s not a thing yet.

 

EC has a fairly stock-standard cold front on July 26-27. Nothing really substantial though.

 

I changed the map a little...

 

EPS is angling something around the 2nd.
To me, the models will play around a bit.
But the general week I am looking at here is the 28th July - 3rd Aug, as that is when the LWT aligns with SE Aus.

 

Potential for a NW feed?

 

There's very little moisture in the NW (Indo-Australian IO) driven by V cool SSTAs, so whilst the models might show it, I think it'll be significantly downgraded nearing any event, in the forseeable IMO.

 

The main thing is that we seem to have finally got a ski base for further snow falls to build upon.

 

@LMB i think has pulled the trigger a few days early...

 

EC staying with this one, whilst GFS fades. Could go either way but nothing more than 15cm IMO.
MSLP have me thinking somewhere in the realm of a 5-10cm hit here for the majors on the 27/28th July IMO, for now.

 

Spag says, Meh. I don't see a beast.

 

Confirmed, no beast.

 

There probably won’t be a beast as long as we are in the realms of +AAO.
We are looking at top-ups mainly for now IMO.

 

Def not a beast.
For my money I am happy with 10cm top ups a couple of times a week. Yesterday at perisher really showed how a small amount of snow made a big difference to quality of the cover.

 

Yep I couldn't be happier if something close to this comes off.

 

^^ definition of hopecast me thinks

 

It's 10 days out. There's little confirmation from other models. EC and GFS show a possible big blocking high for that period.

And we just had a week that delivered over a metre. So calling it, "The Beast" and "System of the Year" is a stretch, IMO.

 

we just all have no idea at 10 days out, even 3 days out..

 

10 days is doable, if you had agreement and Ensembles agreement.

 

On the bright side this system just got jacked overnight on GFS. EC remained steady as she goes.
I am siding with EC, as GFS 12z looks like beer and skittles all round.

 

Cool!! And when I looked at the long ranges yesterday seemed some potential for a follow-up dusting later in the week.

 

[ Moderators note] Keep it civil folks. Personal attacks and profanity will not be tolerated .

 

No choice.
I was here to spend the school holidays with a teacher friend.
It is what it is - we ski what is in front of us, and to be honest the weather has been a gift the last few days.

 

might only be 20mm at best - but one final monday in july with fresh snow sounds good to me - even if 10 days out in la la land ... With the Vikings on it - surely it's going to be a 3 footer yet!

 

n

ah.. never 100% just an educated guess.

 

Might need to verify the predictions threads I’ve published vs snowfalls this year.
The strike rate is pretty freaking good if I do so say myself. And well outside 10 days.
More than an educated guess, knackers!
#trumpetblown

As for this date range, it’s flakey and not looking like much to me. Dusting or so IMO.

 

Very Melbourne FC like there POW ,nothing like getting ahead of yourself . Jokes man , you have done well this winter ,well down the track to becoming a trusted forecaster.

Leave the Vikings out of it please

 

It is no coincidence that some quite able but amateur weather forecasters are also surfing enthusiasts.

 

Totally different baselines though. We (surfers) just need wind and are generally happy with anything over waist high. Aus snow systems are marginal and a degree or so (plus a heap of other factors) either way can make or break.
Ps not just amateurs, @SAsurfa makes a living from it

 

I am planning to be snow camping and ski touring at JB Plain /JB Hut on the last days of this month. I hope we can XC ski something fresh , just a small top up would be nice.

 

I think we might send you that humble pill. Its around her somewhere. 72 hours is it lad..

 

72 hours? The models are way better than that. For fine details and exact totals, sure. But not for dates, broad details, etc.

 

JB , that's my opinion and its said. exact correct spot on reliable... 71 hours. Enough changes here ,,we watch the discussion. imo. just saying..

 

Your talking about exact accuracy, right?
That’s not really possible.

 

EC, Perisher & The Beast:

 

Looks like a fairly benign beast