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Predictions 27th - 30th of July... The Beast

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by GTB, Jul 17, 2019.

  1. GTB

    GTB One of Us

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    I can see something on the horizon for this date range....let’s call her “The Beast”

    Watch this space ...but looks like the system of the year coming up
     
  2. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Continue, I’m listening
     
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  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Extend it a few days and you have the next system period after the 23rd system IMO.
    LWT aligns roughly, but progression may change.
    Indications of Phase 3/4 MJO in the region too.
    Big spike in the AAO though.
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Lets see some charts...
     
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  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    There are none... not even GFS.
    It’s really just a thought bubble of logical progression.
    But I wouldn’t have thought thread-worthy TBH.
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. GTB

    GTB One of Us

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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cute reverse jetstream.
    Should rename it the pincher.
     
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  9. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Any tips for the first at Flemington this Saturday?
     
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  10. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC ens look ridgey mc ridge face

    GFS says WA peaking / blocking / slider.

    AXS is not on the page yet at +240
    SDS is alive n well ?
    watch this space.
     
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  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That Jetstream behavior and progression that kicks off in 2-3 days time is very volatile/ erratic even for this time of year. Add an extra dose of low skill into the equation atm imo.
     
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  12. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    haha.. I never thought I’d be clickbaited in a weather forum..
     
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  13. AiguilleRouge

    AiguilleRouge Hard Yards

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    Is this more likely lined up for Lakes Sth Island NZ late July?
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nothing I've seen in this date range, not really anything for NZ.
    Points for giving it a go, but you need more than a AXS-G run at a gazzilion hours out to call this stuff.
     
  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Even though we just had quite a bit.

    EPS on the whole isn’t really game.
    GEFS shows some very vague support.

    It’s not a thing yet.
     
  16. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    EC has a fairly stock-standard cold front on July 26-27. Nothing really substantial though.
     
  17. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us

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    I changed the map a little...
     
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  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    EPS is angling something around the 2nd.
    To me, the models will play around a bit.
    But the general week I am looking at here is the 28th July - 3rd Aug, as that is when the LWT aligns with SE Aus.
     
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  19. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Potential for a NW feed?
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's very little moisture in the NW (Indo-Australian IO) driven by V cool SSTAs, so whilst the models might show it, I think it'll be significantly downgraded nearing any event, in the forseeable IMO.
     
  21. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    The main thing is that we seem to have finally got a ski base for further snow falls to build upon.
     
    #21 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Jul 19, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2019
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  22. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    @LMB i think has pulled the trigger a few days early...
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC staying with this one, whilst GFS fades. Could go either way but nothing more than 15cm IMO.
    MSLP have me thinking somewhere in the realm of a 5-10cm hit here for the majors on the 27/28th July IMO, for now.
     
  24. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag says, Meh. I don't see a beast.

    [​IMG]
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Confirmed, no beast.
     
  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    There probably won’t be a beast as long as we are in the realms of +AAO.
    We are looking at top-ups mainly for now IMO.
     
  27. GTB

    GTB One of Us

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    Still looks like a beast to me

    Possible ECL scenario which will turn into a Thredbo special..
     

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  28. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    Def not a beast.
    For my money I am happy with 10cm top ups a couple of times a week. Yesterday at perisher really showed how a small amount of snow made a big difference to quality of the cover.
     
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  29. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    Yep I couldn't be happier if something close to this comes off.
     
  30. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    ^^ definition of hopecast me thinks
     
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  31. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's 10 days out. There's little confirmation from other models. EC and GFS show a possible big blocking high for that period.

    And we just had a week that delivered over a metre. So calling it, "The Beast" and "System of the Year" is a stretch, IMO.
     
  32. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    we just all have no idea at 10 days out, even 3 days out..
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    10 days is doable, if you had agreement and Ensembles agreement.
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    On the bright side this system just got jacked overnight on GFS. EC remained steady as she goes.
    I am siding with EC, as GFS 12z looks like beer and skittles all round.
     
  35. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cool!! And when I looked at the long ranges yesterday seemed some potential for a follow-up dusting later in the week.
     
  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    [ Moderators note] Keep it civil folks. Personal attacks and profanity will not be tolerated .
     
  37. LMB

    LMB Old but definitely not Crusty! Ski Pass: Gold

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    No choice.
    I was here to spend the school holidays with a teacher friend.
    It is what it is - we ski what is in front of us, and to be honest the weather has been a gift the last few days.
     
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  38. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    might only be 20mm at best - but one final monday in july with fresh snow sounds good to me - even if 10 days out in la la land ... With the Vikings on it - surely it's going to be a 3 footer yet!
     
  39. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    n
    ah.. never 100% just an educated guess.
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might need to verify the predictions threads I’ve published vs snowfalls this year.
    The strike rate is pretty freaking good if I do so say myself. And well outside 10 days.
    More than an educated guess, knackers!
    #trumpetblown

    As for this date range, it’s flakey and not looking like much to me. Dusting or so IMO.
     
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  41. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    Very Melbourne FC like there POW ,nothing like getting ahead of yourself :whistle:. Jokes man , you have done well this winter ,well down the track to becoming a trusted forecaster.
    Leave the Vikings out of it please LOL
     
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  42. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    It is no coincidence that some quite able but amateur weather forecasters are also surfing enthusiasts.
     
  43. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Totally different baselines though. We (surfers) just need wind and are generally happy with anything over waist high. Aus snow systems are marginal and a degree or so (plus a heap of other factors) either way can make or break.
    Ps not just amateurs, @SAsurfa makes a living from it ;)
     
  44. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am planning to be snow camping and ski touring at JB Plain /JB Hut on the last days of this month. I hope we can XC ski something fresh , just a small top up would be nice.
     
  45. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    I think we might send you that humble pill. Its around her somewhere. 72 hours is it lad..
     
  46. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    72 hours? The models are way better than that. For fine details and exact totals, sure. But not for dates, broad details, etc.
     
  47. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    JB , that's my opinion and its said. exact correct spot on reliable... 71 hours. Enough changes here ,,we watch the discussion. imo. just saying..
     
  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Your talking about exact accuracy, right?
    That’s not really possible.
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC, Perisher & The Beast:

     
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  50. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like a fairly benign beast