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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by GTB, Jul 17, 2019.
Yep, but just guessing until Thursday comes around.
18Z GFS has made me sit up and pay attention to July 29-30. Nice positioning of a Low over Tasmania with a decent Southerly fetch....
I like this date range as well following my Monday morning chart skim
Today's GFS changes are hopeful, but we will need EC to back them up.
It'll be gone next run.
GFS axed it in 00z, but EC says hello to it.
And it’s almost beast-like as well.
No other model has it yet, but let’s wait this one out a day or two. Could be interesting (or not).
The title to this thread may need to be changed to 'The Yowie' as the models are like this mythical beast that we see come out into the clearing then quickly disappear into the forest.
Let’s hope Jane’s automates forecasts are on the money!
Just a lazy 60 if ya don’t mind.....
The automated modelling shows Monday next week will bring some heavy snow to Hot Ham. I am planning to drive up to J.B. Hut that day via Omeo. If this does happen I will probably be fitting chains coming up from Omeo!. However skiing on Tuesday next week on fresh deep cover will be worth it.
29th-31st looking pretty flukey on EC 00z, IMO.
Models have been hinting at a cut off low but the projection North is serious for such a zonal in the (Western) mid-lats.
This system on 00z EC also relies on a rogue NW'ly (upper level) injection. I am not sold, yet.
By Saturday we will know if it is a BEAST or just a kitten.
GFS wants in on the 30th July action, going with a cut-off not dissimilar to EC 00z.
With a jet induced NW'ly moisture shot. Looks more outlandish than EC.
Whats her name ?
Would like to see all the ens more convincing with this trough.
The jet plot placement looks ideal atm on this run.
No sign of the cut off Bombora on EC or GFS this morning. Trend is worry in this period IMO.
And today's 18Z GFS goes for a mega-dump on July 30-31....
The old GFS all in at 200hrs....
If that happens I’ll eat my hat with sauce.*
*may or may not eat an actual hat.
** if that happens, i'll shave my head
Build a bridge, 'cause it's a ridge.
Some sharp work there pow
The subtle art of not giving a...
GFS and CMC still have it this morning
Just a beast of an anti-cyclone on 00Z GFS. NEXT!
Someone told me all about "The Beast" today and how we were going to get 50 cents this weekend. Snow Whispers ...
Stay on topic.
Yr.no has picked up something... Sadly this is the only precip currently programmed to at least 2nd August When is the next event!?
4-8th August. There’s a thread on it.
And there’s nowhere to get any from, if the low level low doesn’t move north.
Weird inland trough thingy on Monday on some of the forecast models. It has potential to be a nice top-up, although it would be nice to see better upper level coldness...
The Beast resembles my young cat : more of a purr and then a meow than a fearsome roar.
Ms.Bunn says there is a weather phenomena at play that will keep cold moisture from developing into snow for the next 10 days.
After having been spoiled by a ripper ski season last year I am like a starving man looking for mouldy crusts of bread to eat this ski season.
Last year was a hitop loaf ,this year looks more like a standard loaf so far.
lets see wc 4/8. we both be there.. What else will come
Stick a fork in the beast?
... na this beast is looking small but maybe tasty. 10 cents on this snow pack on a random late July Monday has snowy DOTS written all over it. I guess on that note it'll drizzle all day. ...
I predict an icy playing surface at Perisher tomorrow, the start of this period. Raining now a little down the hill and unlikely to be snow up higher at current temps.
Much smaller beast activity down here
Looking like snow above 1500m tomorrow for mainland resorts.
Chance of a dusting to 2-3cm accumulation above 1700m IMO.
What a beast.
Need @Ret-ro to set up an obs thread
Yeah, well... we had NFI a week ago...
So I'll post this again given it still applies.
Drizzling currently in Thredbo village, heavier up at DHG, radar doesn't give me much optimism?
Winter mix at CP after overnight drizzle
Yeah all the action is above 1500m today.
Note this is prediction thread. Need to start an obs thread.