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Predictions 27th - 30th of July... The Beast

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by GTB, Jul 17, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, but just guessing until Thursday comes around.
     
    Mister Tee on XC Skis likes this.
  2. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    18Z GFS has made me sit up and pay attention to July 29-30. Nice positioning of a Low over Tasmania with a decent Southerly fetch....
     
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  3. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like this date range as well following my Monday morning chart skim
     
  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Today's GFS changes are hopeful, but we will need EC to back them up.
     
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  5. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 Addicted

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    It'll be gone next run.
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's right.
     
  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS axed it in 00z, but EC says hello to it.


    And it’s almost beast-like as well.


    No other model has it yet, but let’s wait this one out a day or two. Could be interesting (or not).
     
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  8. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    The title to this thread may need to be changed to 'The Yowie' as the models are like this mythical beast that we see come out into the clearing then quickly disappear into the forest.
     
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  9. Max2000

    Max2000 Hard Yards

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    Let’s hope Jane’s automates forecasts are on the money!
     
  10. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Just a lazy 60 if ya don’t mind.....:love:
     
  11. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
    The automated modelling shows Monday next week will bring some heavy snow to Hot Ham. I am planning to drive up to J.B. Hut that day via Omeo. If this does happen I will probably be fitting chains coming up from Omeo!. However skiing on Tuesday next week on fresh deep cover will be worth it.
    T.
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    29th-31st looking pretty flukey on EC 00z, IMO.
    Models have been hinting at a cut off low but the projection North is serious for such a zonal in the (Western) mid-lats.
    This system on 00z EC also relies on a rogue NW'ly (upper level) injection. I am not sold, yet.
     
  13. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    By Saturday we will know if it is a BEAST or just a kitten.
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS wants in on the 30th July action, going with a cut-off not dissimilar to EC 00z.
    With a jet induced NW'ly moisture shot. Looks more outlandish than EC.
    [​IMG]
     
  15. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Whats her name ?
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  17. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    ecmwf-aus-t500-4423200.png ecmwf-aus-t700-4423200.png download (1).png ecmwf-aus-z500_anom-4423200.png

    Would like to see all the ens more convincing with this trough.
    The jet plot placement looks ideal atm on this run.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    No sign of the cut off Bombora on EC or GFS this morning. Trend is worry in this period IMO.
     
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  19. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    And today's 18Z GFS goes for a mega-dump on July 30-31....
     
  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    The old GFS all in at 200hrs....

    Lulzy mclulzface

    If that happens I’ll eat my hat with sauce.*

    *may or may not eat an actual hat.
     
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  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    ** if that happens, i'll shave my head
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z.
    Meh.
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Build a bridge, 'cause it's a ridge.
    EC.
    Meh.
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Some sharp work there pow ;)
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The subtle art of not giving a...
     
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  26. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The "beast"
    [​IMG]
     
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  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS and CMC still have it this morning
    EC doesn’t.

     
  28. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Just a beast of an anti-cyclone on 00Z GFS. NEXT!
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  29. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Someone told me all about "The Beast" today and how we were going to get 50 cents this weekend. Snow Whispers ...
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  31. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    Yr.no has picked up something... Sadly this is the only precip currently programmed to at least 2nd August :( When is the next event!?

     
  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    4-8th August. There’s a thread on it.
     
  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    And there’s nowhere to get any from, if the low level low doesn’t move north.
     
  34. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Weird inland trough thingy on Monday on some of the forecast models. It has potential to be a nice top-up, although it would be nice to see better upper level coldness...
     
  35. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    The Beast resembles my young cat : more of a purr and then a meow than a fearsome roar.
     
    #85 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Jul 25, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2019
  36. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms.Bunn says there is a weather phenomena at play that will keep cold moisture from developing into snow for the next 10 days.
    After having been spoiled by a ripper ski season last year I am like a starving man looking for mouldy crusts of bread to eat this ski season.
     
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  37. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    Last year was a hitop loaf ,this year looks more like a standard loaf so far.
     
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  38. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    lets see wc 4/8. we both be there.. What else will come
     
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  39. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Stick a fork in the beast?
     
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  40. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    ... na this beast is looking small but maybe tasty. 10 cents on this snow pack on a random late July Monday has snowy DOTS written all over it. I guess on that note it'll drizzle all day. ...
     
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  41. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I predict an icy playing surface at Perisher tomorrow, the start of this period. Raining now a little down the hill and unlikely to be snow up higher at current temps.
     
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  42. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Much smaller beast activity down here
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking like snow above 1500m tomorrow for mainland resorts.
    Chance of a dusting to 2-3cm accumulation above 1700m IMO.
    What a beast.
     
  44. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Need @Ret-ro to set up an obs thread
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, well... we had NFI a week ago...
    So I'll post this again given it still applies.
    [​IMG]
     
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  46. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Drizzling currently in Thredbo village, heavier up at DHG, radar doesn't give me much optimism?
     
  47. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    :(
     
  48. Fozzie Bear

    Fozzie Bear One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Winter mix at CP after overnight drizzle
     
  49. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's dieseling?
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah all the action is above 1500m today.
    Note this is prediction thread. Need to start an obs thread.