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Discussion in 'Weather' started by JustCantStop, May 24, 2017.
The BOM predicting snow this weekend?
What do you think?
Nice deep trough on MSLP. -30 500mb Temps on GFS. -11 700mb Temps. -2 850mb Temps.
EC: 5-10cm on the Main Range and Victorian Peaks.
So a fairly cold system with a bit of moisture. Not a season opener though.
Shame it won't be skiable. My SDS is reaching fever pitch.
With the moisture is it perhaps a little marginal for snow making on front valley?
Yr.no is forecasting 30cm for Perisher while MW is a lot less at only 10cm.
The blocking / ridging highs I was ( over ? ) reading into yesterday appear to have played the game.
This is good if we get round 20 in Perisher, That would be a lot more on the main range. I am skeptical they got a lot last night. Had not expected anything much this weekend..
EC shows a Tassie Clipper.
GFS shows the low coming over the Alps.
For the Alps.
EC = 0cm
I'd give another day's worth of runs to watch this one.
GFS 00z looks to have upgraded both systems. Less cutoff on the 30th
GFS 00Z Precip for 28/29 system throughout <0C timeframe.
The bulls eye is too far south for my liking.
Only a few centimeters is my prediction
Spag likes Sunday - Monday.
Big upgrade for Sunday IMO, Perisher BoM:
Sunday 28 May
Showers or snow. Very windy.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 60%
Alpine Area area
Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers or snow. Winds northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h increasing to 50 to 65 km/h during the morning then turning westerly 35 to 55 km/h during the afternoon.
EC and AXS influence, I think. Both have been quite bullish with precip values for this one.
Snow down to 1200m, like !
Did you think / feel it was going to clip at this time yesterday ?
Only reading into a Post in the Autumn thread and you seemed to mirror my conservatism with this one.
With this system it's the follow up overnight temps that are more important as to whether resorts start firing up guns...
Hasn't really been on my radar until a few days ago to be honest. Can't say I've seen it as a clipper just moreso just lacking the right combo (cold air late, top heavy on the pre-frontal moisture). Moisture as always been a concern IMO.Still an element of risk with the pressure the way it is, but who saw 30-odd mm out of 1014hPa last night.
Although, since this morning, it's now got cold air inbound by Sunday arvo/eve - this has flipped things for me.
What do you think temps, cloud height and wind will be around feathertop area sat/sun?
Saturday might be alright. Sunday forgeddaboudet.
35kts + gusts.
Looking awfully cold, or beautifully cold more appropriately
Just the moisture looks iffy
Good for the guns though!
BOM very bullish in terms of precipitation.
Sunday 28 May
Possible rainfall: 10 to 35 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northerly 30 to 35 km/h tending northwesterly 20 to 25 km/h during the day then tending westerly during the evening.
Monday 29 May
Snow shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%
Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h tending northwesterly during the day.
EC really doesn't jump on board - only suggesting dusting at best.
I'd be thinking 5cm for mainland resorts, and it will pass through pretty quickly based on EC.
Should be nice in Tasmania though!
EC snow accum suggests 5-10cm for the period.
GFS suggests 10-20cm for the period.
Temps look marginal for much of Sunday at 1800m on EC over the mainland Alps.
However, it is looking quite windy from the NW, so there might be an adiabatic cooling effect which could see snow to lower levels.
And yet BOM have min and max of -3 as you've posted above.... error?
Yeh it smells low to me, and the precipitation total seems high.
Soundings looking lacklustre too.
Well I like the direction and strength of the forecast winds for the NSW resorts. I think we are currently looking at 10-15 cm of snow on Sunday, a light dusting on Monday and another 5-8 cm of snow on Tuesday if the models hold. But, EC has a nasty habit of overshooting on forecast moisture in this time range this early in the season.
The opportunity to make snow should be there every night next week IMO.
Zomg, EC has upgraded as well. Now looking at 20cm of snow on Tuesday and 15cm on Wednesday. Season starter if this holds.
Certainly a bit of rain in amongst the below. I think snow is likely in the resorts from around 1-3pm Sunday IMO.
These two fronts now look the goods! While moisture is lacking the westerly wind direction is favourable for uplift over the main range. The global models will underpredict the orographic effect which is why the BOM 8 day only shows 15mm of precip. The ACCESSR 12Z tonight will hopefully show 10-20cm Sunday, followed by another 10-30cm on Tuesday. From the 2 fronts would be expecting at least 20cm for main resorts but possibly 40cm.
I predict that I will be following this thread closely until Sunday. I also predict that I will enjoy tracking the first front of the season that *should* leave snow that doesn't melt before the next one. I predict that is all I have to say.
Snowfall looks better for tuesday than Sunday.
If both happen than good.
10 CM Sunday than 20 to 30 CM Tuesday. Best case scenario. IMO
It will likely only hold above 1900 m though as there is a big fat high after.
Wandering Col Pool could be interesting on June the 4th.
EC12z @144hr looks the cherry pick.
Sure does on GFS too. Proper Southerly system (mind the shadowing, but it's got Buller & Baw Baw written all over it).
What are we thinking in terms of freezing levels? I don't know much about how to guesstimate those. Looking at these charts my brain is telling me around 1100-1200m overnight tues-wed? Could be completely wrong though
Irrespective of moisture progged Vs actual, Sub 528 thickness = Like. IMO Strong trailing highs NEARLY always diminish southerly moisture forecasts. Most models seem to be far too optimistic IMO
850 ht looks to be around 1500m.
so +/- 1 deg / 100m "freeze " would be 1300 'ish. IMO
some calling 2 foot storm.
Plus 6 hours
The models haven't moved that much this afternoon. Could we see 50cm of fresh across resort areas by this time next week?
I doubt that amount. I just can't see that sort of moisture across those two systems IMO.
BOM really liking Tuesday.
Here's the culprit.
And BoM isn't that far behind that.