Predictions 27th-31st May

Discussion in 'Weather' started by JustCantStop, May 24, 2017.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    30th was always showing better maturity/ timing IMO as per post # 23
     
  2. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Hi All,

    Its been a while. I'm trying to upload a BOM Pick but am hitting difficulties.

    I've attached a file that I hope can be seen by all? if not, please let me know.

    The Vortex Low (952hp) just east of South Africa should be the second hit around Tuesday. What i like is the 968hp node on the Western Edge of the Low.

    As the 952hp gets drawn north, the 968hp should get a double slingshot around the main low. There is also a 965hp south of the main low so we should hopefully see either or, spin off and head north to the warm water under Adelaide.

    Strong Low with warm water feed is goodness
     

    Attached Files:

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  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Can't see it unfortunately
     
  4. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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  5. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    What is the location is that??
    When reading YrNo, read the top summary, there's no need to total the detailed, timeframe forecast - Yes, I know it's confusing but totals are not accumulative in those timeframes (I think @Jellybeans1000 was alluding to this earlier today).

    Here's Perisher for next week:
    So not much more than 20cents here...
     
  7. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    Why does it have the time on it though and not cover the whole day?
    I use this link and it presents differently

    https://www.yr.no/en/list/daily/2-8219816/Australia/New South Wales/Snowy River/Perisher Village
     
  8. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    I would not worry about moisture feed over the next week or two. There is still a lot of warm sitting under SA so any fronts carrying a bit of cold will pick up decent moisture.

    Todays was a weak westerly front but still generated some sea level light rain for Western Vic.

    Drop the front temp by 5c and moisture pickup will intensify. Add orographic and its game on.

    Just need the strong cold WSW feed being drawn SW with the slide.

    Its a late August patern

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Soz.
    Peri
    Perisher Village , for purely wishing to err on the conservative ...
    https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Perisher_Village/long.html
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  11. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    welcome
    welcome back .
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Welcome back mate.

    She's broadly cooler in the Bight than the norm, not warm.
    [​IMG]
     
  13. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Track early season fronts. get an idea of strenght and see how the Pre Frontal Temps drop Post Frontal... Each year is different but run a 4c to 8c average for Melb early season.

    Melb needs to hit below 15c for anything decent down to 1700m. Melb hits 11c with mass moisture and your seeing goods down to 1200m.

    NSW is different because of the Main Range. A 15c in Melb should deliver to 1500m in Perisher simply because the main range is higher and the moisture needs to pass over 2000m before it hits perisher. Vic tops out at 1986m at Bogong but Bogong is north of the Vic Resorts so any Orographic Lift from Bogong only benefits NSW.
     
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  14. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Thanks mate!
     
  15. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Thanks POW
     
  16. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    So a little bird on another forum said that Accuweather snow accum charts were inaccurate and that they prefer yr.no. So I am confused as that rainfall(~40mm) and snow accum(~40cm) charts from Accuweather match up, but the yr.no precipitation charts (70mm) are progging nearly double. Which one is more accurate? That doesn't even take into account the fact that colder temperatures create more snow.
    [​IMG]
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    @nickxylophone @nfip
    Sort of. You're right in saying 1500m roughly equates to 850mb, but the cold, polar air (an anomaly for the region) is going very high into the atmosphere, this is often referred to as a 'deep' airmass. So with -15C @ 700mb and -32C @ 500mb it means you're talking super-cooled flakes taking longer to thaw as they fall. These sort of temps will ensure that will snow to fall though 300-400m of +C atmosphere before turning to rain.
    IMO, based on those heights you'll may see snow down as low as ~800m - whether it settles is another thing all together.
     
    #67 POW_hungry, May 25, 2017
    Last edited: May 25, 2017
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  18. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    100% correct POW.

    *but i gave up on chasing Anomoly at the end of last year beacuse the SST are out of control. Its like herding cats haha.

    So i started back with the easier option of real time predictions based in current Sea Surface Temps (SST for the noobs) over Sea Surface Air Temps (SSAT).

    I wont bore you but we use to rely on seasonal data so SST Anomoly was an indicator of season. Now its a mass fluctuation. It can swing wildly from one quarter to the next. Winter sea temps in summer, summer sea temps in winter. Its a brutal beast.... so time to rethink the modelling from an Insurance Premium/Rates point of view :).

    I've been absent because i have been rethinking. this year is a test case but the fundamentals need to be tested.

    Current SST for Adelaide today is 19c. If we can get a 11c blowing across then convection rates look OK. Nothing like Japan, but not bad for Aus. Blowing across a dry VIC/NSW plain and hitting the Main Range looks good for me.

    Trial and effect. work in progress. :)
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/wintry-end-to-autumn-for-australias-southeast-/526423
     
  20. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 Dedicated Member

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    You've "linked" it so that the file downloads to the viewer's computer as a pdf.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BOM frothing on Tuesday eve (10pm snow accumulation). Which by the way, is outside the 4 -day rule. ;)
     
  22. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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  23. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Kimberlee.

    Honestly, i have just been lazy haha. I need to read the new rules and instructions then i should be fine... hopefully haha
     
  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  25. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Nice looking feathers blasting dead west across the bight.... August
     
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  26. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Perisher_Village/long.html
    Hover the cursor over the precip totes and it is culmulative for the time-frame ( 4 hrs.) mentioned.
    So add them up and that's the total accumulation .
     
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  27. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Good NW humidity feed to boot.

    Rolling convection with strong mid levels. NSW special
     
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  28. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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  29. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    How do i get a bi line??

    "Don't stop drinking and don't stop thinking.. Lifes too boring for boring people"
     
  30. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    yep I understand that.
    I do look at the 850 ht on the models which varies , compare with the temps
    It's not always 1500 as you know.
     
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  31. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]

    GFS 06z digs the trough into the ridge a tad further N.
    As a few others have stated this trough has a polar air
    mass component.

    [​IMG]
    EC's extremely cold. anom.
     
    #81 jwx, May 25, 2017
    Last edited: May 25, 2017
  32. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Not quiet accurate, you need to look at lower table
     
  33. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    We often also see that with those very cold uppers, the actual temp at 1500ish is lower than the progged 850 temp I reckon (ie progged at 2, but in reality is 0 or -...). I think of it as the mixing, or extra cooling effect from above, but I've no idea if my logic is sound?
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    As stated lower, I was incorrectly matching precip values. Super sorry.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Easiest way is to simply do a screen capture and upload.

     
  36. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Sorry to disagree with you guys, but the brown shading is dry stable mid-level air.
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    That rule of thumb doesn't take into account adiabatic cooling (wind forcing air to cool over geographical features such as mountains) which is what I think is what you're talking about and likely to have an effect on this system.
     
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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I do like Tuesday & Wednesday.
    Sunday still looks marginal below 1800m.
     
  39. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Wet sloppy Sunday snow = good base IMO
     
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  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I think you're really counting on adiabatic effects to get snow down to 1600m.
     
  41. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    I do like the wind direction.
     
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  42. cin

    cin Part of the Furniture
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    Looking like the moisture comes later in the piece when the cold has well and truly hit
    Usually the other way around in recent years
     
  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Yes . Was looking at the 50 knot + flagged area in the high moisture (blueish ) area.
     
  44. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Hmmm, I'm not referring to adiabatic cooling - although it may simply explain what I observe. More specifically, when I look at the temp of the layers and try and predict actual temp at 1500-1600, i look at the 850 first - if that's -Ve it's normally snow. However, if it's 2deg, I look at the 700 and 500 temps, and if they're in the extra cold range, then I find that the temp at resort level is often lower. I also take into account pressure/850 height, amongst other factors, but it's a simple observation from a simple weather nerd
     
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  45. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    There's our downgrade for Tues-Wed. Normality in the models is back. Sunday could surprise though.
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS for Tues/Wed.
    A Baw Baw special IMO.
     
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  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I still think Tuesday looks ok on EC.
    15cm for mine.

    IMO
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BOM precip. Looks pretty much on the money to me. Dang it looks cold Wednesday morning.

    Sunday

    Monday

    Tuesday
     
    #98 POW_hungry, May 26, 2017
    Last edited: May 26, 2017
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  49. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    GFS looks like 15-30cm
    EC looks like 20-35cm
    The thickness nodes according to EC

    28/29
    [​IMG]
    30/31
    [​IMG]
     
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  50. Belly

    Belly Addicted Member
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    31 May looks the day.
     
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