Wed is far from locked in IMO. GFS going for potentially big totals if that low wraps enough as a cut-off system once it hits the Tasman. The 00Z run shows this. In a cut off scenario we may see a lot of precip through the backdoor, behind Tassie on Wednesday for the NSW resorts. SST's are blazing warm off that coast. Any onshore flow will mean extra-moisture. That said, GFS is the only one going down this road ATM. Still 144hrs out.
BoM (Perisher) Saturday 27 May Summary Min -4 Max 8 Partly cloudy. Possible rainfall: 0 mm Chance of any rain: 20% Alpine Area area Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower, possibly falling as snow above 1900 metres. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h. Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low] Sunday 28 May Summary Min 0 Max 4 Showers. Late snow. Windy. Possible rainfall: 20 to 40 mm Chance of any rain: 95% Alpine Area area Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers, tending to snow in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 50 to 70 km/h decreasing to 40 to 60 km/h in the middle of the day then tending westerly 35 to 55 km/h in the early afternoon. Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low] Monday 29 May Summary Min -5 Max 2 Morning snow showers. Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm Chance of any rain: 70% Alpine Area area Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h. Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low] Tuesday 30 May Summary Min -5 Max 3 Showers. Snow developing. Windy. Possible rainfall: 8 to 25 mm Chance of any rain: 90% Alpine Area area Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers, tending to snow in the afternoon and evening. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h tending northwesterly 45 to 65 km/h during the morning then turning southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h during the evening. Wednesday 31 May Summary Min -5 Max 4 Partly cloudy. Possible rainfall: 0 mm Chance of any rain: 20% Alpine Area area Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a snow shower, most likely during the morning. Winds southwesterly 20 to 25 km/h.
BOM sure looking marginal for Sunday. Lots of pre frontal. Warmer day time temps than previous. No 24hr snow making this week. no.yr just updated http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Perisher_Village/long.html
There is agreement between GFS/EC for Sunday that we'll see snow before midday (IMO around 10am for Vic Resorts/Midday for NSW), so in saying that I think 10-15cm is most likely outcome for the Sun/Mon system. And I think Jane's call of snow down as low as 900m is pretty spot on. As for Tuesday I think we're still not there yet, as GFS is on a bit of a tangent but I think realistically we'll see another 10-15cm in Aus resorts from 10am Tuesday, and down to as low as 800m on Tuesday evening.
Can we not bag the one professional meteorologist who interacts with the community out of nothing but her passion for weather?
I'd seriously doubt that. Jane is normally right on the money. She's very professional in her forecasting, one of the Australian industry's best IMO.
The charts have been saying this for a few days. It's going to rain Sunday probably until midday in the south, and mid afternoon in the north IMO. But after that, it's all good.
Those meteograms really show how those temps dive Sunday arvo... It'd be great if it was representative of the winter ahead.
No, but these are not required to observe a history of over cooking the forecasts. Plus my post was deleted, so really I am under no obligation to reply.
It's fine everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But me and I think most people here agree that Jane forecasts for her love of weather, not for commercial interests. She's not going to overcook her snow forecasts. She has a lot of integrity, as with most meteorologists. She ain't like the others, I can tell you right now. Her new series on her website about teaching weather forecasting is very good. And may of saved me from writing my own forecasting guide for another snow website. And thanks Jane for your service to the weather community
This. We all respect she takes the time out to share her knowledge and valued opinion with us here. It's always an insightfull and accurate observation of the events as they unfold, which is of great benefit to many here like myself.
Vort possibly closing off and moving North. Warmer air in the downstream might be dicey around 850 hPa
Still some conjecture between GFS & EC. EC going for a more short sharp system. GFS is going for some development in the wrap-around which is far more risky to prog. IMO this thing could still flop on Tuesday.
Hmmm, the bom alpine forecast for hoth/fc on tues is 6-20mm which I'm pretty sure is more than yesterday...
Well, well, well. According to skynews I'll be xc skiing into work http://www.news.com.au/technology/e...l/news-story/1e347e569662c9b2b8a32e63c4a728f3
My favourite part of that article is the Indian Ocean "Diploe". My second favourite part is how it's written by a journalist whose weather knowledge could be comfortably summarised on the white side of a very very small postage stamp. I actually know him and used to work with him. Nice guy. Not a weather person tho
GFS really is on it's own for bigger falls on Tuesday. EC/The Canadian aren't overly keen on Tuesday. Even AXS maps similar scenario although quite bullish on it's progged falls. I am now more inclined to think we may struggle to see 10 cents out of Tuesday now - pressure is somewhat indicative of this too (~1016hPa is as low as it's progged).
4 day map BoM (Perisher) Sunday 28 May Summary Min -1 Max 4 Snow showers. Windy. Possible rainfall: 25 to 40 mm Chance of any rain: 80% Alpine Area area Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, falling as snow above 1000 metres by the evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 50 to 70 km/h decreasing to 45 to 60 km/h in the middle of the day then turning westerly 35 to 55 km/h in the early afternoon. Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low] Monday 29 May Summary Min -6 Max 2 Possible snow shower. Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm Chance of any rain: 40% Alpine Area area Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the early morning. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h. Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low] Tuesday 30 May Summary Min -5 Max 4 Snow shower or two. Possible rainfall: 4 to 20 mm Chance of any rain: 70% Alpine Area area Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds westerly 40 to 60 km/h decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h during the afternoon then turning southerly 30 to 45 km/h during the evening. Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low] Wednesday 31 May Summary Min -6 Max 4 Partly cloudy. Possible rainfall: 0 mm Chance of any rain: 20% Alpine Area area Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a snow shower. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h.
Been busy with 94B elsewhere. A little late to the party but i do think we should see the first bona- fide blizzard of the season with this system.
If this gets as low as the 800-900 being spoken here then I might get some home snow to play with in the next few days. If it happens ..................
moisture on yr.no for tuesday downgraded I believe https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Perisher_Village/long.html
So far a fizzer boys. Temps still warm , zero wind , 0.3mm in the jar and now clear skies for sun up. Looks like this one is staying more south than predicted. I can see some heavy cloud way to the south of us , maybe as far south as the border. Prediction is ---- not much , just another late May teaser , Tuesday might well be the same.
Sorry Claude cat; I predict much banter about this post as DSNS has acknowledged his desire to ski cross country ski! Must inform ski fit coach.......
