Predictions 27th-31st May

Discussion in 'Weather' started by JustCantStop, May 24, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BOM now going for 4-8mm (NSW) & ~10mm (Vic) for Tuesday's system.
    YrNo/EC not far behind.
     
  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    What's the NEMS model? Never heard of it or seen that meteogram before.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I think it's pretty hit and miss but I understand it to be non-hydrostatic input for NAM, so it's NCEP/NOAA. I've actually never seen it available outside of the US so I am not sure on it's documented accuracy, but it's done ok on today's system.
    WindyTV is where it's at Jelly. It's come along way in the last year or two - it can be unreliable in some areas but it's useful at comparing models and tracking obs data.
     
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  5. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Found the meteograms on Windy. Very nice stuff, I was using the WxMaps.org meteograms for my US interests, but these will serve nicely as my go to meteograms for AUS. Thanks for sharing.
     
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  6. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Yr.no prog -10 wed morn at mount p, -8 at Hotham.
     
  7. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Just saw the updated 4 day'er - looked like a massive downgrade as compared to what we were seeing a few days ago.

    Big ass High ridging in quickly behind
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    High Pressure Cell be like:
    [​IMG]
     
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  9. janesweather

    janesweather Dedicated Member

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    I've now got OCF data feeding into my website, with hour by hour graphs (meteogram) launching later this week.
    But the totals for the latest run show ~8 to 15 cm across the resorts.
    http://www.janebunn.net/snow-forecast/
     
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  10. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Don't blink or you'll miss...

    Tuesday 30 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -6
    Max 3
    Snow at times. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow, most likely from the late morning. Winds west to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming westerly 35 to 50 km/h early in the morning then turning south to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h in the evening.

    BoM - Perisher
     
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  11. Ramshead

    Ramshead Dedicated Member

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    Small thing Jane, but the altitudes on your website beside the snowcams are confusing. Some are plain wrong. For example you have Charlotte Pass at 1700m whereas the village there is at 1830m and the lifts go up from there. And for Thredbo, you have 1950m (the approx height of top of Kosi chair) yet that pic is Merrits (Cruiser) at approx 1650m. Those are not the only two that are wrong. Otherwise great site!
     
  12. janesweather

    janesweather Dedicated Member

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    Thanks, the elevation relates to the observation and forecast - I'll see what I can do to make it less confusing
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Good breakdown of the mechanics. Looking forward to seeing the Meteograms/OCForecasts
     
  14. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Is OCF and WATL the same thing? Because they are both multi model ensembles and I have seen OCF around on some sites, just confused if they are different things?
     
  15. snowblowa

    snowblowa Dedicated Member

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    Off topic but how good is this forum? @janesweather and all you meteo cats bouncing models of each other, talkin' MEGA specifics bout live weather data on a level not seen B4.... #lovethisshit
     
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  16. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    I totally agree. I don't very well understand the weather charts for down south but love the banter comparing notes and the frothing at the mouth when it comes off with a bang.

    Off topic I know so I'll just go outside and slap myself around a few times.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    If we're to see any moisture north of Canberra on Wednesday they'll be some elevated areas in the Central Tablelands, NSW (around Oberon, Jenolan areas) that should see the odd flake early Wednesday IMO.

    Uppers @1000hrs around Oberon read; -2C/-8/-25C
     
  18. Astro666

    Astro666 Active Member
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    So hitting VIC Alps around lunchtime tomorrow and NSW just after. All done by Wednesday morning. A minty 10 - 15cm IMO. :D

    BTW: I'm skiing this weekend. So there may be extra mint. :skier:

     
  19. janesweather

    janesweather Dedicated Member

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    Yes-ish

    Both are output from the weighted average of a range of models, but the calculations are a little different.
    OCF (Operational Consensus Forecast)
    PME (Poor Mans Ensemble) - yes interesting name - that's what drives WATL.

    All models are based on an approximation of the atmosphere, and this weighted average learns from how its done in the past. So, the forecasts for this snowy period have improved as it has progressed through time.

    Perisher has only just been added to the list, so its a week before we have calibrated data.

    Here's what Buller and Thredbo look like from the 18Z run (4am). We're still in testing mode but here's a preview:

     
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  20. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Thanks Jane:thumbs:
     
  21. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Charlotte Pass itself has elevation of 1830m. The village down below is around 1750m.
     
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  22. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    NSW BOM have possible snow above 1000M for CT's tomorrow.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I mentioned this yesterday. A real chance if moisture lingers north of Canberra/ the ranges.
    She's pretty dry inland beyond tonight though - limited chance IMO.
     
    #173 POW_hungry, May 30, 2017
    Last edited: May 30, 2017
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