Predictions 27th May - 30th May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by BH, May 20, 2015.

  1. BH

    BH One of Us

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    The Bom 10 day chart and US charts are hinting a little something something around these dates. One to keep an eye on.....
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    spag has been saying this for awhile
    albeit ....................................wildly
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM update has temps margin for mainland Alps (Freeze Levels ~2000m) on the 29th with Westerly flow.
    EC is mildly interested in it.
    GFS has a strong NW inflow, indicating a lot of pre-frontal rain followed by the chance of snow from SSW change late on the 29th.

    I am not excited at the prospect of much/any snow from this one.
     
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO looks wet at this stage.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Sorry to draw a slide rule over this thread
    but looking at defined models ...re this date range
    its a folly
    personally I think step the day range out a bit and things will happen...
    however
    alot of pasture to cover before then
     
  6. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    Cold pool doesn't get anywhere near the mountains. No mint here.
     
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Bro please
    shakes head
     
  8. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    Weather !!!
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks ugly on EC. 50-75mm rain.
    IMO
    Perhaps a chance of improvement around the 1st.
     
  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    IMO this is wet
    then a bunch of snow




    BUT
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    1st-3rd looking OK. There is some ridging of the high that runs into the Tasman on the 30th/30st which looks likely to impede on major snowfall for the mainland alps at this stage.

    As a side note, West Coast NZ looks like it's due for a big rain event around these dates thanks to that NW inflow.
    The best example of Aus pissing on NZ in a long time. #thatlookslikeadick
    [​IMG]
     
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    This looks pretty darn good to me
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Looks pretty good to me on both AXS and GFS this morning. Loads of prefrontal but there's nothing to wash away. AXS hinting at a follow-up Antarctic blast.
     
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  15. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Like, wow......240 hrs though.

    One thing the models seem to agree on IMO, is a surface or upper trough progged to weaken the large high ridge & force it to consolidate/sink back west of Perth & allow said system to evolve and penetrate. IMO

    A very 'winter' looking set-up if this comes off IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  16. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    That chart is sweet. So it's probably inevitable it gets hugely downgraded.
     
  17. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Wow long way out but that high is not ridging could deliver IMO
     
  18. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

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    I plan to be walking around the Main Range towards Jagungal on Friday 30th till Monday 1st. Been watching this on extended GFS for a while and wondering what it might actually do. Been surprisingly stable(ish) on Extended GFS much of that time. How much rain and when is the cold air exactly coming have been my interest. Should firm up a bit over coming days.

    Given that I will be on very exposed country at around 1800 - 2000 m for most of the of time, it's kinda interesting. :) Actually hoping for flakeage and not too much rain.
     
  19. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Almost 15 years to the day of a memorable event
     
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I don't see the love; admittedly I'm only looking on EC out to the 30th.
     
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  21. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    IMO Yesterday afternoon's runs on most models mostly had the high ridging extensively, forcing the cold air well below the mainland. As always, if that high ridges, bye bye penetration. Will flip & flop next 3-4 days I think.
     
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  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I'm only looking at the spag.
     
  23. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Off topic, but very memorable, was stuck in Canada finishing a ski season there! Missed all the fun :cry:
     
  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    And the season starts????
    Looks pretty dam good on GFS. Cold Pool and Moisture arrive at the same time.

    [​IMG]
     
  25. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I would wait till the front passes or dig in. :cheers:
     
  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Boms's GFS showing a bit of interest too. This cold pool will update every 6 hrs.



    [​IMG]
     
  27. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    That looks crap IMO
    pressure is way too high
    Moisture is a NW cloud band
    LOW is located to the SE..needs to be SW.
     
  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Hang on.

    The cold pool is their according to quoted spag charts.

    Its about the movement and progression of the Cold Pool and the moisture IMO.

    If you so care to look at the 168 to 200 hrs there is a general morphology of cold pool and moisture forming and hitting the Snowies.

    But in the end its just subtle analysis of the morphology (shape) of a forecast chart

    :whistle:
     
    #28 7wombathead, May 21, 2015
    Last edited: May 21, 2015
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO it's not very good.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Moisture is well in advance of the colder air.
    IMO
     
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  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Concur.
    However - there is no alignment between any model and the ensembles.
    So posting models, its a bit futile IMO
     
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  31. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

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    Yep will be watching it closely over the coming week. Frankly I prefer to walk in snow than rain but it all depends on timing, amounts & wind. At least the walk up from Guthega Power Station is relatively sheltered. Plenty of huts in the area and have been up there a few times before. If it looks too dicey we will adjust timing by a few hours or a day, whatever it takes. :)

    I think the cold is a bit marginal at this stage, more worried about soaking rain. :)
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    This
    Is bloody cold
    [​IMG]
     
  33. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    But, this is Thursday..... As per spag,it would seem a fair chance that the cold air is around Friday. It would also seem that there will still some moisture around on Friday, and to that end a nw feed can be awesome IMO

    Yes, the pressure is high, but if it's as cold as the spag suggests the pressure shouldn't be such an issue IMO

    May as well be casting bones at 8 days out, but the spag seems to be firming in right direction which is about as good a sign as the bones can give right now, so I'm a tad interested
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS got nothing on Friday and EC has it sliding south.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  35. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm only looking on here, but the above says moisture and the spag says cold
     
  36. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    But this says RIDGe and dominant high high and is at complete odds with spag
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Doesn't mean the spag is right either.
    Really, when the ensembles are not agreeing it means there's significant amount of doubt of what's going to happen late next week. I wouldn't be ruling anything in or out right now.
     
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  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anyone who 'picks' this one right today is just guessing.
     
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  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    The models will swing around alot IMO

    one godo thing re the spag. The control lines are consistent with their curve
     
  40. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could be blue skies and sun baking on Kosciusko, or snow on nearby hills

    Why are we having this discussion?
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Because we're looking at the 27-30th and not what immediately comes after ;)
     
  42. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Ok, so let's put out there, 5 days out, what model CONSISTENTLY delivers accuracy?
     
  43. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    We probably shouldnt go there. Everyone has their 'favourite' go-to models. For Frog it's GFS, for Claude it's EC, for donza it's his bowl of spaghetti. I like AXS, but not because I believe exactly what it's saying (it tends to over-estimate rainfall, and also pressure a lot of the time). You need to use the strengths of NWPs and then ensembles and then sat pics all together to get a proper picture. No one model is the wonder model, otherwise it would be the only model.
     
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  44. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I just like to look at models
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Guilty of looking at models?
     
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  46. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

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    If that 540 line is anywhere near the Snowies on Friday and there's moisture about, I expect flakeage up higher. Hopefully though heavier precip (if any about) won't be Friday arvo. :) Like all of us I too will be model watching quite a bit the next week. :)

    Timing for my visit is line ball on a few things at the moment. Systems a little slower or quicker, weaker or stronger, wetter or drier will have quite an impact on the characteristics of my walk. :)
     
  47. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    3 days of r**n before the cold air arrives with not enough moisture left to make an impact IMO.
     
  48. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's amusing how this time of year people will put the house on something +168hrs, even though we know the models really arent reliable outside +72. As the season progresses people remember this and start to reign their long-term predictions in, but I guess early in the season everyone is keen.
     
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  49. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    spag isn't a model
    Its a representation of all da models
     
  50. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I laugh at a thread without apparent purpose until 72 hours

    Not sure anyone has put their house, even the doghouse on anything
     
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