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Predictions 28-30th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Jellybeans, Aug 22, 2019.

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  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    I see something around the 28-29th of August that looks like a 5-20cm top-up type of system. A decent cold node setup on EC and CMC, GFS a little weird (as usual).

    EC:


    GFS:


    CMC:


    Could be some potential here IMO.
     
  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not Bad for late August . Will it slide South though ?
     
  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very cold in Tassie on EC .
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Progression via GFS is flukey, with no upper level support. Wandering cold pool scenario.
    [​IMG]

    WRF suggesting ridge.


    Might be clutching straws here.
     
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  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ICON has a wanderer/ staller.
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC a little weaker than yesterday:
     
  7. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    All looks a bit on the dry side next week. At least there won't be much melt IMO.
     
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  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was never gonna be massive.
     
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  9. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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  10. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll give you odds of 3:1 on that that ridges out to a dusting.
     
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  11. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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    Your probably right. I’m heading to Perisher on Saturday the 31st. So living in hope....
     
  12. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I understand the hope entirely. 10cm on the current cover with freezing levels to the bottom and a westerly wind can make for a fantastic days skiing/riding!
     
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  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC weaker today ?
     
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  14. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    High looks too far to the east...
     
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  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Shades of a Ecl IMO.
     
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  16. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I note this doesn't cover the alps nor us Mexicans - just saying. ( ;-)
     
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  17. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Last ECL in tepid SSTA waters of Aug/Sep?
    Wing and a prayer, RN IMO.
    Tasman Low maybe, ECL... doubt it.
     
  19. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Uppers the biggest swing factor in ECLs IMO.
     
  20. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    The mountains are doing alright, I'd welcome some moisture from the East down here on the FSC. It's dry.
     
  21. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    AXS-G has a battle between a 1030hpa high centred just west of Tasmania and a funny tasman low (suuuuuper deep at 1018hpa) intersecting with some thickness from the south that looks like it will get cut off. Not a high-probability setup IMO.

    What does the progression look like on EC?
     
  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks a bit tentative. The High may prove too stubborn. EC Indicating late arriving temp gradients causing potential frontogenesis and a secondary trough . Its not stacked by a long shot but potential heights are featuring an upgrade 12Z run . A tad messy on a composite sketch book atm. IMO
     
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  23. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Fizzer IMO
     
  24. Wavey

    Wavey One of Us

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    Agree, that's why they can happen at any time of the year. They are less common around this time but they do happen.
     
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  26. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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    Well a least we might get some rain at home...
     
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Be careful what you wish for. This composite plot is rather alarming
     
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  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well my garden looks forward to it
     
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  29. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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    Ok. We might go from empty dams to mud...
     
  30. Wavey

    Wavey One of Us

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    Only thing is it'll ruin Wollongong getting its first completely dry calendar month :p
     
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  31. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Bark looks worse than bite unfortunately. We had a good summer for storms but there has been little to get excited about since. Hanging out for a textbook ECL
     
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  32. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    What ever it is going to be, bring it on!
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looking more on the money this morning. Progression seems right, with a wandering cold pool, cradling High etc.

    South Coast needs it.

    10 cent system IMO, with NSW resort seeing maybe 10-15cm, at this stage.
     
  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s coming....
    The 8-15th Sept period looks pretty good at this point.
     
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  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Downgrade on the EC Rapid 06Z run. Lets hope it bounces back a little on Monday.
     
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  37. cmc also thinks snow thurs-sat
    gem-all-aus-total_snow_10to1-1566734400-1567026000-1567285200-40.gif 2019-08-26 13_17_06-gem-aus-total_snow_10to1-7231200 - Windows Photo Viewer.png
     
  38. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    15 years of the same lame observation
     
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
    Appears to be an observation. ;)
     
  40. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict we'll see the same again et encore et encore...
     
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  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not entirely sure about Captains Flat getting the highest totals, but I like the trend.
     
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  42. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The models are mixed.

    [​IMG] .
     
  43. ec-cmc-gfs-jma..... Nice 534 dam on a few models,cyclonic flow uppers
    ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-7036800.png gem-aus-thck_1000-500-7036800.png gfs-aus-thck_1000-500-7036800.png jma-aus-thck_1000-500-7036800 (1).png Thats nice consenus.
     
  44. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    FIZZER :)

    dusting to a few cm

    IMO
     
  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    5-15cm IMO.

    A fizzer is usually a system that goes from hero to zero. This system has always been pretty much a top-up.
     
  46. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Pretty much ;)

    This has jumped around a bit but was never great, like you said
     
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  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some tight Vorticity and a fling Northwards ( bypassing Alps ) on EC and GFS - hence this crazy plot-
     
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  48. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    So was never much, but somehow it's a 'fizzer' ?
    Riiiight.
     
    skiflat likes this.