Predictions 28-30th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Jellybeans, Aug 22, 2019.

Tags:
  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,693
    Likes Received:
    10,580
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    I see something around the 28-29th of August that looks like a 5-20cm top-up type of system. A decent cold node setup on EC and CMC, GFS a little weird (as usual).

    EC:


    GFS:


    CMC:


    Could be some potential here IMO.
     
  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,832
    Likes Received:
    17,123
    Location:
    Canberra
    Not Bad for late August . Will it slide South though ?
     
  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,832
    Likes Received:
    17,123
    Location:
    Canberra
    Very cold in Tassie on EC .
     
    WarrandyteWX and AussieWhite like this.
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,173
    Likes Received:
    22,359
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Progression via GFS is flukey, with no upper level support. Wandering cold pool scenario.
    [​IMG]

    WRF suggesting ridge.


    Might be clutching straws here.
     
    realmlord likes this.
  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,832
    Likes Received:
    17,123
    Location:
    Canberra
    ICON has a wanderer/ staller.
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,693
    Likes Received:
    10,580
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    EC a little weaker than yesterday:
     
  7. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,969
    Likes Received:
    995
    All looks a bit on the dry side next week. At least there won't be much melt IMO.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,693
    Likes Received:
    10,580
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Was never gonna be massive.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  9. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2018
    Messages:
    73
    Likes Received:
    102
    Location:
    NSW
  10. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2003
    Messages:
    2,017
    Likes Received:
    585
    Location:
    Sydney
    I'll give you odds of 3:1 on that that ridges out to a dusting.
     
    AussieWhite likes this.
  11. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2018
    Messages:
    73
    Likes Received:
    102
    Location:
    NSW
    Your probably right. I’m heading to Perisher on Saturday the 31st. So living in hope....
     
  12. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2003
    Messages:
    2,017
    Likes Received:
    585
    Location:
    Sydney
    I understand the hope entirely. 10cm on the current cover with freezing levels to the bottom and a westerly wind can make for a fantastic days skiing/riding!
     
    AussieWhite likes this.
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,832
    Likes Received:
    17,123
    Location:
    Canberra
    EC weaker today ?
     
    AussieWhite and Winterwolf like this.
  14. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2014
    Messages:
    1,439
    Likes Received:
    1,774
    High looks too far to the east...
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    31,300
    Likes Received:
    26,727
    Location:
    woonona
    Shades of a Ecl IMO.
     
    skiflat and AussieWhite like this.
  16. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

    Joined:
    May 4, 1999
    Messages:
    3,387
    Likes Received:
    1,126
    Location:
    vic
    I note this doesn't cover the alps nor us Mexicans - just saying. ( ;-)
     
    Mister Tee on XC Skis likes this.
  17. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2018
    Messages:
    73
    Likes Received:
    102
    Location:
    NSW
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,173
    Likes Received:
    22,359
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Last ECL in tepid SSTA waters of Aug/Sep?
    Wing and a prayer, RN IMO.
    Tasman Low maybe, ECL... doubt it.
     
  19. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,570
    Likes Received:
    499
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    Uppers the biggest swing factor in ECLs IMO.
     
  20. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    May 20, 2000
    Messages:
    907
    Likes Received:
    54
    Location:
    Wandella 2550
    The mountains are doing alright, I'd welcome some moisture from the East down here on the FSC. It's dry.
     
  21. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2014
    Messages:
    1,439
    Likes Received:
    1,774
    AXS-G has a battle between a 1030hpa high centred just west of Tasmania and a funny tasman low (suuuuuper deep at 1018hpa) intersecting with some thickness from the south that looks like it will get cut off. Not a high-probability setup IMO.

    What does the progression look like on EC?
     
  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,832
    Likes Received:
    17,123
    Location:
    Canberra
    Looks a bit tentative. The High may prove too stubborn. EC Indicating late arriving temp gradients causing potential frontogenesis and a secondary trough . Its not stacked by a long shot but potential heights are featuring an upgrade 12Z run . A tad messy on a composite sketch book atm. IMO
     
    jonathanc likes this.
  23. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,016
    Likes Received:
    325
    Fizzer IMO
     
  24. Wavey

    Wavey One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    301
    Likes Received:
    523
    Location:
    Wollongong, NSW
    Agree, that's why they can happen at any time of the year. They are less common around this time but they do happen.
     
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,832
    Likes Received:
    17,123
    Location:
    Canberra
  26. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2018
    Messages:
    73
    Likes Received:
    102
    Location:
    NSW
    Well a least we might get some rain at home...
     
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,832
    Likes Received:
    17,123
    Location:
    Canberra
    Be careful what you wish for. This composite plot is rather alarming
     
    AussieWhite likes this.
  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    31,300
    Likes Received:
    26,727
    Location:
    woonona
    Well my garden looks forward to it
     
    User has resigned and Kletterer like this.
  29. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2018
    Messages:
    73
    Likes Received:
    102
    Location:
    NSW
    Ok. We might go from empty dams to mud...
     
  30. Wavey

    Wavey One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    301
    Likes Received:
    523
    Location:
    Wollongong, NSW
    Only thing is it'll ruin Wollongong getting its first completely dry calendar month :p
     
    FourSquare04, Donzah and AussieWhite like this.
  31. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,570
    Likes Received:
    499
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    Bark looks worse than bite unfortunately. We had a good summer for storms but there has been little to get excited about since. Hanging out for a textbook ECL
     
    AussieWhite likes this.
  32. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    May 20, 2000
    Messages:
    907
    Likes Received:
    54
    Location:
    Wandella 2550
    What ever it is going to be, bring it on!
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,173
    Likes Received:
    22,359
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    EC looking more on the money this morning. Progression seems right, with a wandering cold pool, cradling High etc.

    South Coast needs it.

    10 cent system IMO, with NSW resort seeing maybe 10-15cm, at this stage.
     
  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,832
    Likes Received:
    17,123
    Location:
    Canberra
  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,693
    Likes Received:
    10,580
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    It’s coming....
    The 8-15th Sept period looks pretty good at this point.
     
    User has resigned and Kletterer like this.
  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,832
    Likes Received:
    17,123
    Location:
    Canberra
    Downgrade on the EC Rapid 06Z run. Lets hope it bounces back a little on Monday.
     
    FourSquare04 and AussieWhite like this.
  37. cmc also thinks snow thurs-sat
    gem-all-aus-total_snow_10to1-1566734400-1567026000-1567285200-40.gif 2019-08-26 13_17_06-gem-aus-total_snow_10to1-7231200 - Windows Photo Viewer.png
     
  38. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,643
    Likes Received:
    10,213
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    15 years of the same lame observation
     
    skiflat, mick chopps and POW_hungry like this.
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,895
    Likes Received:
    51,122
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Stay on topic.
    Appears to be an observation. ;)
     
  40. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,643
    Likes Received:
    10,213
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    I predict we'll see the same again et encore et encore...
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,693
    Likes Received:
    10,580
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Not entirely sure about Captains Flat getting the highest totals, but I like the trend.
     
    AussieWhite likes this.
  42. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,820
    Likes Received:
    1,431
    Location:
    South
    The models are mixed.

    [​IMG] .
     
  43. ec-cmc-gfs-jma..... Nice 534 dam on a few models,cyclonic flow uppers
    ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-7036800.png gem-aus-thck_1000-500-7036800.png gfs-aus-thck_1000-500-7036800.png jma-aus-thck_1000-500-7036800 (1).png Thats nice consenus.
     
  44. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,016
    Likes Received:
    325
    FIZZER :)

    dusting to a few cm

    IMO
     
  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,693
    Likes Received:
    10,580
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    5-15cm IMO.

    A fizzer is usually a system that goes from hero to zero. This system has always been pretty much a top-up.
     
  46. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,016
    Likes Received:
    325
    Pretty much ;)

    This has jumped around a bit but was never great, like you said
     
    Jellybeans likes this.
  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,832
    Likes Received:
    17,123
    Location:
    Canberra
    Some tight Vorticity and a fling Northwards ( bypassing Alps ) on EC and GFS - hence this crazy plot-
     
    Trail Blazer likes this.
  48. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,643
    Likes Received:
    10,213
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    So was never much, but somehow it's a 'fizzer' ?
    Riiiight.
     
    skiflat likes this.