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Predictions 28-30th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Jellybeans, Aug 22, 2019.

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  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I will take 10 to 15 cm.

    Not Much wind, coldish, and clearing quickly. Good for some higher alpine areas above 7000 ft.

    Wombat Team Alert
     
  3. download (1).png download (3).png download (6).png

    Money shot
    some locations will imo receive more than just a dustings. The lower pressure with cold temps its selft is enough for more snow. Trop gets quite low with the 534.
     
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  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This has snow in odd places written all over it!
     
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  5. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    Yr.no showing very little snow on Thursday at Perisher. Surely we'll get more than this.
     
  6. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    This could be a weird one IMO
    20cm Bombala, 10cm Jindy 5cm resorts kind of thing..
     
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  7. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Not much in oz above 7000ft....
     
  8. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    As has been consistently pointed out for 15 years....
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  10. IDG00074.gif

    Those heat lows over the NW are also interesting. First V early indercation of the tropics patern change
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I Noticed that too, particularly with the ridge moving into the 40 degrees south.
     
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  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    But there is more than one peak worth riding and climbing.

    [​IMG]
     
  13. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I honestly don't know what to make of this complex little upper-level trough, in terms of predicting 1 cm (Pessimistic), 5 - 7 cm (Realistic) or 12 -20cm (Over optimistic, Frother).

    Bom 4 dayer Seems a little different to EC and GFS

    [​IMG]
     
  14. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    It's super messy and pressures are high, but resort level temps and thicknesses look ok. Moisture doesn't look great on GFS but it's also showing a different progression for the system in general.

    Feel like the amount of precip will be hard to predict and predictions for snow in weird eastern locations might be on point.
     
  15. balmz

    balmz Hard Yards

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    Any chance of a last min reduction in daytime temps for the weekend? :cry: One can hope.
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS’s love affair with an overrated Tasman Lows (or ECL) continues...
    Underwhelming is a word that comes to mind for this system.
     
    #66 POW_hungry, Aug 27, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2019
  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I love these under the radar systems.

    Upgrades all round and should be good in the alpine.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  19. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Not even an obs thread.

    No wind is good for the alpine.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-C is showing 20-30 knots, by 2-3am tomorrow.
     
  21. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Obs: misty and relatively still all day at Buller though the AWS suggests 12-24kts. I’m still so spoiled from the last 2 seasons I’ve stayed inside and played with my daughter. Yesterday was nice though, fast groomers on the firm side and slush bumps on the soft side then went for an arvo XC ski.

    Got a couple of obligations in town the next few days but the plan is to spend as much of Sept as I can in the mountains.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow down to 1100m tomorrow in the CT's if there's any moisture left.
     
  23. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowing at Buller
     
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  24. W0nkey D0nkey

    W0nkey D0nkey One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    obs thread?
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Obs thread is up
     
  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Not that windy at 700 hpa
    Its windier at 850 hpa than 700 hpa which is unusual. How would you classify this front?

    [​IMG]
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weak.
     
  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    That's pretty evident. I was just looking at the soundings and there is a wobble in the plot around 850 to 700 hPa.
     
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  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Time and location ? There is some funky Advection 4-10 am tomorow.
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just looks like the standard dry layer through the mid levels.
    Pretty shallow stuff IMO.

    Drying out above 700mb
     
  31. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Mackay?
     
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