1. The Weather Forum has been re-arranged

    Find all the Day to Day threads in Daily & Chat - - There are now four main 'food groups' with no geo-based criteria. Please take note of the descriptions for clarification.

    This notice may be closed | Discussion about these changes
    Dismiss Notice
  2. Coronavirus #StayHome

    Official Advice

    - People in Australia must stay at least 1.5 metres away from others and gatherings are limited to two people unless you are with your family or household.
    - If you believe you may have contracted the virus, call your doctor (don’t visit) or contact the national Coronavirus Health Information Hotline on 1800 020 080.
    - If you are struggling to breathe or experiencing a medical emergency, call 000.

    Information Resources Mental Health Note: This announcement may be closed & This announcement will be reset every few days.
    Dismiss Notice

Predictions 28-30th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Jellybeans, Aug 22, 2019.

Tags:
  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,302
    Likes Received:
    19,220
    Location:
    Canberra
  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,826
    Likes Received:
    1,434
    Location:
    South
    I will take 10 to 15 cm.

    Not Much wind, coldish, and clearing quickly. Good for some higher alpine areas above 7000 ft.

    Wombat Team Alert
     
  3. download (1).png download (3).png download (6).png

    Money shot
    some locations will imo receive more than just a dustings. The lower pressure with cold temps its selft is enough for more snow. Trop gets quite low with the 534.
     
    Snowy Joey, AussieWhite and Donzah like this.
  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    35,109
    Likes Received:
    32,640
    Location:
    woonona
    This has snow in odd places written all over it!
     
    Ret-ro, teleroo, The Plowking and 2 others like this.
  5. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2016
    Messages:
    208
    Likes Received:
    760
    Location:
    Canberra/East Jindabyne/South Coast
    Yr.no showing very little snow on Thursday at Perisher. Surely we'll get more than this.
     
  6. loweee

    loweee One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2002
    Messages:
    2,849
    Likes Received:
    676
    Location:
    Jindabyne
    This could be a weird one IMO
    20cm Bombala, 10cm Jindy 5cm resorts kind of thing..
     
    Snowy Joey and teleroo like this.
  7. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2017
    Messages:
    1,123
    Likes Received:
    1,781
    Not much in oz above 7000ft....
     
  8. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,839
    Likes Received:
    10,586
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    As has been consistently pointed out for 15 years....
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    117,631
    Likes Received:
    57,612
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Stay on topic.
     
  10. IDG00074.gif

    Those heat lows over the NW are also interesting. First V early indercation of the tropics patern change
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,937
    Likes Received:
    24,306
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I Noticed that too, particularly with the ridge moving into the 40 degrees south.
     
    nfip and User has resigned like this.
  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,826
    Likes Received:
    1,434
    Location:
    South
    But there is more than one peak worth riding and climbing.

    [​IMG]
     
  13. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,826
    Likes Received:
    1,434
    Location:
    South
    I honestly don't know what to make of this complex little upper-level trough, in terms of predicting 1 cm (Pessimistic), 5 - 7 cm (Realistic) or 12 -20cm (Over optimistic, Frother).

    Bom 4 dayer Seems a little different to EC and GFS

    [​IMG]
     
  14. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2014
    Messages:
    1,627
    Likes Received:
    2,057
    It's super messy and pressures are high, but resort level temps and thicknesses look ok. Moisture doesn't look great on GFS but it's also showing a different progression for the system in general.

    Feel like the amount of precip will be hard to predict and predictions for snow in weird eastern locations might be on point.
     
  15. balmz

    balmz Addicted

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2019
    Messages:
    215
    Likes Received:
    440
    Location:
    Ferntree Gully, Victoria
    Any chance of a last min reduction in daytime temps for the weekend? :cry: One can hope.
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,937
    Likes Received:
    24,306
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    GFS’s love affair with an overrated Tasman Lows (or ECL) continues...
    Underwhelming is a word that comes to mind for this system.
     
    #66 POW_hungry, Aug 27, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2019
  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,826
    Likes Received:
    1,434
    Location:
    South
    I love these under the radar systems.

    Upgrades all round and should be good in the alpine.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,826
    Likes Received:
    1,434
    Location:
    South
  19. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,826
    Likes Received:
    1,434
    Location:
    South
    Not even an obs thread.

    No wind is good for the alpine.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,937
    Likes Received:
    24,306
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    AXS-C is showing 20-30 knots, by 2-3am tomorrow.
     
  21. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    77,069
    Likes Received:
    43,850
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    Obs: misty and relatively still all day at Buller though the AWS suggests 12-24kts. I’m still so spoiled from the last 2 seasons I’ve stayed inside and played with my daughter. Yesterday was nice though, fast groomers on the firm side and slush bumps on the soft side then went for an arvo XC ski.

    Got a couple of obligations in town the next few days but the plan is to spend as much of Sept as I can in the mountains.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,937
    Likes Received:
    24,306
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Snow down to 1100m tomorrow in the CT's if there's any moisture left.
     
  23. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    77,069
    Likes Received:
    43,850
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    Snowing at Buller
     
    TheFake, mick chopps and POW_hungry like this.
  24. W0nkey D0nkey

    W0nkey D0nkey One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2017
    Messages:
    2,380
    Likes Received:
    2,587
    Location:
    Wollongong
    obs thread?
     
    POW_hungry and AussieWhite like this.
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,937
    Likes Received:
    24,306
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Obs thread is up
     
  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,826
    Likes Received:
    1,434
    Location:
    South
    Not that windy at 700 hpa
    Its windier at 850 hpa than 700 hpa which is unusual. How would you classify this front?

    [​IMG]
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,937
    Likes Received:
    24,306
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Weak.
     
  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,826
    Likes Received:
    1,434
    Location:
    South
    That's pretty evident. I was just looking at the soundings and there is a wobble in the plot around 850 to 700 hPa.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,302
    Likes Received:
    19,220
    Location:
    Canberra
    Time and location ? There is some funky Advection 4-10 am tomorow.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,937
    Likes Received:
    24,306
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Just looks like the standard dry layer through the mid levels.
    Pretty shallow stuff IMO.

    Drying out above 700mb
     
  31. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    887
    Likes Received:
    696
    Mackay?
     
    Seafm likes this.